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Thread summary:

Fuel prices rise: desirable areas to live, travel friendly areas, long commutes, mass migration

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Old 05-23-2008, 06:18 AM
 
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The rise in fuel prices is having and will continue to have a massive negative impact on the country and here in the Triangle. It is hard to see much good in this situation, but I wonder if something positive might actually happen. Is it possible that $5 to $7 a gallon gasoline will make people rethink where and how to live? Will people decide to move very close to work or move to areas that have many amenities around? Will the artificially inflated fuel prices actually change where the desirable areas are to live in the Triangle? Will builders start building in new “travel friendly” areas? If so, will this actually reduce the amount of traffic on the Triangle roads? If new development goes this way, will it encourage even more people to flock to the Triangle to escape the long commutes and high heating bills of the northern part of the country.


Is it possible that the Triangle could actually benefit from this painful fuel price situation? Hmmmm………..?
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Old 05-23-2008, 06:48 AM
 
Location: Wake Forest
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Arrow One transplants opinion

Quote:
Originally Posted by West_Raleigh_Guy View Post
The rise in fuel prices is having and will continue to have a massive negative impact on the country and here in the Triangle. It is hard to see much good in this situation, but I wonder if something positive might actually happen. Is it possible that $5 to $7 a gallon gasoline will make people rethink where and how to live? Will people decide to move very close to work or move to areas that have many amenities around? Will the artificially inflated fuel prices actually change where the desirable areas are to live in the Triangle? Will builders start building in new “travel friendly” areas? If so, will this actually reduce the amount of traffic on the Triangle roads? If new development goes this way, will it encourage even more people to flock to the Triangle to escape the long commutes and high heating bills of the northern part of the country.


Is it possible that the Triangle could actually benefit from this painful fuel price situation? Hmmmm………..?
IMO its a 'push' at best. Home builders are reducing the size of the homes footprints for several reasons, among them is a smaller carbon footprint (less energy use / cost), less maintenance cost, and reducing the average price of the home. This is going on everywhere so our area has no advantage there over say the northern parts of the country. The major reason they are doing this is their customers are asking for it. Nothing like customers needs to change perceptions and than requirements.

Allot really comes down to a life change based on jobs and taxes. Based on post in this forum there seems to be some common threads on why people come here, they are (and in no particular order), better jobs, lower taxes, lower cost of living, homes are cheaper than where they are coming from, better weather, and/or their family moved here and they are following them. Can't seem to stay away! So if that is the reason(s) than the area again IMO should continue to grow until many of the above factors change to becoming negative attributes versus positive.

Fuel will have little to no impact IMO.
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Old 05-23-2008, 07:44 AM
 
Location: Durham, NC
141 posts, read 637,400 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dansdrive View Post
Fuel will have little to no impact IMO.
+1

Even if people started to rethink their living situation due to rising fuel prices in the short-term, I am sure once the bubble bursts on oil prices, then people will soon forget the massive burden of astronomically high fuel costs. I see oil speculators and market makers driving the price up to $170/$225 on the low/high end before prices come down to a more reasonable level. So, maybe 12-18 more months of artificially inflated prices, during which time, of course, people will invariably panic and *maybe* rethink their lifestyle choices. But, what happens after fuel becomes relatively inexpensive again? Mass migration back to McMansions far away from work? So, bottom line, I do not see rising fuel prices lasting anywhere long enough for builders to completely rethink, and more importantly, actually build communities in an effort to cope with rising fuel.
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Old 05-23-2008, 07:59 AM
 
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What about the guy who runs a shipping business, or delivers pizzas, or a poor person who commutes to work and can't afford to live in the neighborhood where their office is, and how anything that's is delivered from place to place will have a higher price - like food - that again affects the poor more than anyone....so, no, I don't think that high gas prices are good for our area.
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Old 05-23-2008, 08:22 AM
 
Location: The 12th State
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I think the tourism industry in this state will benefit the most especially with all the newcomers in this state who plan to stay within a 100 miles.
Either from local amusement parks to campgrounds to hotels and other industries related to a "vacation".
This is a big plus for exploring the state your in.
Explore North Carolina

Lets see gas has seem to go up about ten cents a week so we may reach the $4 mark by two weeks especially when summer travel starts to peak.
I just can never figure out why the price of motor oil has not been affected.
I use to sell motor oil in early 90's and the price for basic motor oil was about $1.24 and now it just only around $2.20 ... weird
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Old 05-23-2008, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Wake Forest
2,835 posts, read 6,762,891 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunnyKayak View Post
I think the tourism industry in this state will benefit the most especially with all the newcomers in this state who plan to stay within a 100 miles.
Either from local amusement parks to campgrounds to hotels and other industries related to a "vacation".
This is a big plus for exploring the state your in.
Explore North Carolina

Lets see gas has seem to go up about ten cents a week so we may reach the $4 mark by two weeks especially when summer travel starts to peak.
I just can never figure out why the price of motor oil has not been affected.
I use to sell motor oil in early 90's and the price for basic motor oil was about $1.24 and now it just only around $2.20 ... weird
SunnyKayak.....your trying put reason into economic logic. The two may never meet!
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Old 05-23-2008, 09:43 AM
 
9,680 posts, read 24,838,303 times
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Don't see a real drop unless something fundamental is done to reduce demand for imported oil.

Perhaps ending the war and restoring the dollar's value could do it.

If not, sprawled out areas like the Triangle may take a nosedive and cities with rail transit will perk up.

Many outlying homes may wind up foreclosed and abandoned if folks get laid off because of the downturn.
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Old 05-23-2008, 10:31 AM
 
1,956 posts, read 4,909,067 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saturnfan View Post
Don't see a real drop unless something fundamental is done to reduce demand for imported oil.

Perhaps ending the war and restoring the dollar's value could do it.

If not, sprawled out areas like the Triangle may take a nosedive and cities with rail transit will perk up.

Many outlying homes may wind up foreclosed and abandoned if folks get laid off because of the downturn.
Right. The war and the low value of the dollar are a HUGE part of the problem. Subsidized demand (sprawl, McMansions, exemption of SUVs from fuel economy standards) is another part.

Get rid of the the war and weak dollar, and stop subsidizing demand, and you'll have more normal gas prices.
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Old 05-23-2008, 07:08 PM
 
Location: Durham, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by West_Raleigh_Guy View Post
Is it possible that the Triangle could actually benefit from this painful fuel price situation? Hmmmm………..?
Depending on one's state of mind, any adversity can present itself a positive. However, only so many people can move into a centrally located area before others are 'forced' to move outward. If the demand of a centrally located area goes up, simplistically speaking, those areas will go up in price and many who cannot afford to move centrally will have no choice to live outward.

In addition, even if prices were to double what they are today, it would take a heck of a lot of time for families and individuals who are just making it to get on board with buying new vehicles, installing energy devices and finding a new place to live (if available).

Unless you're invested in the rising commodities or oil company stocks or whatever, if you have a lot of liquid assets, you'll be able to adapt well, fast and efficiently. Else, it's gonna be a pain on everyone below that level in the triangle who will find they are paying not only higher prices at the pump and at the stores and services, but in taxes too (as well as less money afforded to long term retirement goals).
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Old 05-24-2008, 06:35 AM
 
Location: Durham, NC
2,024 posts, read 5,485,113 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliBoy View Post
Depending on one's state of mind, any adversity can present itself a positive. However, only so many people can move into a centrally located area before others are 'forced' to move outward. If the demand of a centrally located area goes up, simplistically speaking, those areas will go up in price and many who cannot afford to move centrally will have no choice to live outward.
IMO, if we really are at or on the verge of a peak oil situation -- and it's not clear to me whether we are or aren't -- this is exactly what you'll see. Traditional city areas becoming more desirable, and denser, with the Alamance/Johnston Co. areas of the world becoming tomorrow's low-rent districts.

Mind you, it would take decades to happen. But look back at history. Dense urban neighborhoods were favored from the early 20th c. through WW II. In the post-war period, the sudden housing demand and the availability of the automobile contributed to a change in lifestyle preferences, and it took three decades for cities to wilt and suburbs to rise.

(FWIW, I use the movie "Robocop" as the cultural touchstone for the low point. :P )

The last fifteen years, we've seen a revival in urban neighborhood pockets due to demographic and psychosocial changes -- DINK families seeking neighborhood engagement, a sliver of rebellion against commoditized chain stores and tract developments, interest in bike/walk commutes, the "Seinfeld" and "Friends" effect of romanticizing urban living.

But the drivers of that trend have been at best a movement of choice, not one of broad economic necessity.

When I look at this board, the most frequent requests I see are the Long Island/South Fla./Boston 495 belt folks looking to move South, and to bring a suburban life with them. Because the affordability of the suburban life where they are, naturally, isn't so affordable, at least not to support certain lifestyle choices around single-family homes, one-income families, etc.

That's a powerful demographic trend. But to my mind, the economic choices and constraints that lead this bolus of families to seek a lower-cost suburban lifestyle will eventually drive that cohort, or more likely their kids, back to cities, while the suburbs go through the same disinvestment and disinterest cities saw two generations ago.
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