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Yup. UMD and Rutgers have both suffered 40-50 point losses year after year to the Big Ten's best (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.).
Although they have beaten Michigan once and played them competitively once. They lost to OSU by 1 point (52-51). They've beaten MSU and Iowa once or twice. And they've beaten Penn State twice (including 2 years ago) despite also losing by close to 50 a handful of times.
So bottom line. I think this is a revenue grab, and Big Ten isn't going to be getting rid of under performing teams. Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, and Illinois all are bottom tier, but they stay competitive enough throughout the years. Northwestern and Purdue even on low budgets are pretty competitive every few years.
I do agree that there pribably wont be many if any drops.... though I wouldn't completely rule it out either down the road.
Even still, any drops that do occur are more likely to be from schools like Vanderbilt who have essentially zero hope of being even a little competitive... or the decision may be mutual.
If we ever get to an environment of super conferences where most or all games are played in conference or among the P2, well Vandy playing a schedule of Florida, Georgia. Tennessee on top of Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU.... well... eventually losing 40+ every single week will get old.
As a Georgia Tech alum, I have misgivings about entering the B10 or SEC and getting slaughtered in football most years. The reality is that every major at Georgia Tech requires calculus. No exceptions. The degrees like Industrial Management (Tech's version of undergrad b-school) don't require as much as the engineering, science, and math majors take. But they still have to take some. Although Tech athletes are given very good academic assistance, the requirement still frightens away many potential recruits. Given that Tech's list of available majors is already the shortest of any school in the ACC, recruiting football talent is an ongoing problem.
I don't want to see Tech's academic traditions watered down just so the football team can be better. Most Tech alumni are happy if the football team cracks the top twenty once every 5-10 years and manages to beat Georgia once every 5-10 years. But none of us want a team that goes 0-12 every year just so the conference can enjoy the Atlanta market and the school can get good money for its sacrifice on the altar of the B10/SEC.
- Notre Dame is the straw that stirs the drinks. If Notre Dame decides the environment is too unstable for independence, and they finally decide money is the way to go, it will be a battle of networks. If ESPN wants to keep them away from Fox, they should open up their wallets to get them full-time in the ACC or even the SEC. Both give them access to Florida and allow them not to simply become another Midwestern Big 10 program. Fox obviously wants Notre Dame, and USC was the ultimate carrot short of Stanford. The fate of the world is in the hands of the Irish.
- Clemson and UNC are probably the top targets for the SEC for different reasons. Clemson gets them another football power but in a smaller state that they already are in. It adds another Auburn-type team, but they already have a half-dozen Auburn types and the recruiting base is still finite. Schools might prefer killing Clemson rather than elevate them, who knows. UNC is arguably the largest national brand remaining in the ACC. They add a new market, a new recruiting state, a partner for Kentucky that would help if the SEC/B10 ever decide to take March Madness away from the NCAA like they’ve taken football away. As of now basketball subsidizes most of the NCAA’s operations to the tune of billions, and I’m sure the schools are looking at ways to take over the pot.
- Miami and FSU are in a similar, but weaker, boat to Clemson. Former football powers in SEC states. UVA and Duke are basically only SEC possibilities if UNC asks for a plus-one and gets it.
- The B10’s could go in several directions. One feels they are bound to at least go for two more on the West Coast (Stanford/Oregon/Washington make the most sense). But as their goal is Notre Dame, one wonders if they won’t also go East Coast to provide them cushion to stay national in recruiting. Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA, and Duke provide the ACC schools with the most market, recruiting, and academic sense. How willing they are to go deep into the South is the question.
- From my point of view, the ACC with a full-time ND and maybe ESPN overpaying to keep ND, UNC, Duke away from Fox would be good enough even if it was only 80% of what SEC/B10 was. Not perfect, but there is value in history. College sports, unlike most pros, is a generational grudge match. Every college has them, and they make the world go round.
- That is likely a pipe dream however. In the case the ACC is making only 50+% less of what the Big 2 make, it would be time to go. The UNC fanbase is split. The Academic-and-Olympic sport crowd wants the B10. To me, we make sense in the SEC footprint. It’s where our fanbase is, it’s where our recruiting is. With the money we are making, we could park our field hockey in another league, or better yet teach Alabama that there are more sports than simply football. The added bonus is there is a strong possibility State does not have a B10 invite. So we’d be the only public school in the state playing at the top tier if we went SEC. If we went B10, there is a good chance State gets elevated in the SEC, hurting us long term. It’s Machiavellian and mean to the Wolfpack of which most of my family is, but this is a zero-sum game and if we have to play it than we must play it.
- Smart lawyers at Texas haven’t found how to break the GOR. At this time I’m assuming it’s cost-prohibitive, so we likely wouldn’t see a negotiated settlement out until closer to 2030. But something would have to dynamically change for this not to be the main point of discussion until then. Time will tell, and things could blow up sooner.
It depends on if they go 18 or 20 whether UNC gets in. It seems a given that Clemson, FSU, and Miami end up in the SEC. That leaves 1 spot if they only expand to 18. From what I have read, GT is a popular choice for both the SEC and Big Ten because of their academics and the Atlanta media market. If they end up in the SEC and they only expand to 18, that would leave UNC out. Although UNC and UVA were both rumored to be looking at the Big Ten a couple of years ago, but I think the Big Ten will be filled with Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington, and obviously Notre Dame (who I think will ultimately be forced to join if there are 2 super conferences). That scenario would leave UNC on the outside looking in for both conferences.
As a Georgia Tech alum, I have misgivings about entering the B10 or SEC and getting slaughtered in football most years. The reality is that every major at Georgia Tech requires calculus. No exceptions. The degrees like Industrial Management (Tech's version of undergrad b-school) don't require as much as the engineering, science, and math majors take. But they still have to take some. Although Tech athletes are given very good academic assistance, the requirement still frightens away many potential recruits. Given that Tech's list of available majors is already the shortest of any school in the ACC, recruiting football talent is an ongoing problem.
I don't want to see Tech's academic traditions watered down just so the football team can be better. Most Tech alumni are happy if the football team cracks the top twenty once every 5-10 years and manages to beat Georgia once every 5-10 years. But none of us want a team that goes 0-12 every year just so the conference can enjoy the Atlanta market and the school can get good money for its sacrifice on the altar of the B10/SEC.
True. But Northwestern is of similar caliber academically and even with a small budget, they've been respectable in football. Georgia Tech won't be winning any titles, but after getting used to either conference, I think they could be relatively competitive. Plus with more teams being added, each conference will be watered down a little.
We'll see. There was a time before joining the ACC when Tech played Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, and either Alabama or Notre Dame or USC every year. When Tech entered the ACC, the Auburn series was discontinued altogether and the Ala/ND/USC games became infrequent. If all those rivalries return in a SuperSEC context, ouch.
I don't buy the whole "media market" thing in college football - the ACC tried to expand to grab market share in the northeast cities and how is that working out for them?
Apparently Georgia Tech is thought to be a very hot commodity and has interest from both the Big Ten and the SEC. Mainly due to the combination of having the Atlanta media market and being a great academic school. All rumors seem to point to Clemson, FSU, and Miami joining the SEC, which the OP mentioned and makes sense. I also think that Georgia Tech will end up in one of the 2 power conferences (Big Ten or SEC) for the reasons listed. The SEC obviously makes most sense location wise, but either way, I think they will end up in one of the 2 conferences.
Atlanta, like the rest of Georgia, has always been a University of Georgia fan base. Maybe the B1G would be interested to make a move into Georgia, but the SEC already has a strong foothold.
And, perhaps as importantly, what will North Carolina do?
Don’t underestimate the power of the Tar Heels in all of this. While things have been relatively quiet in ACC country since the UCLA and USC news last week, UNC remains the biggest prize not named Notre Dame. It is a national brand — what other school has a shade of blue named after it? — with a sterling academic reputation. And it is the flagship school of the nation’s 10th-biggest state in terms of population — one that happens to be the biggest remaining state that is not currently in the Big Ten or SEC footprint.”
And, perhaps as importantly, what will North Carolina do?
Don’t underestimate the power of the Tar Heels in all of this. While things have been relatively quiet in ACC country since the UCLA and USC news last week, UNC remains the biggest prize not named Notre Dame. It is a national brand — what other school has a shade of blue named after it? — with a sterling academic reputation. And it is the flagship school of the nation’s 10th-biggest state in terms of population — one that happens to be the biggest remaining state that is not currently in the Big Ten or SEC footprint.”
They left out of the article that it is also the school that had a fake major that allowed players to do zero work. Sterling academic reputation indeed...
Arizona, California, Colorado, Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, Pitt, Stanford, Utah, Virginia and Washington are all AAU schools not in the Big 10. After Notre Dame makes a decision, these would be the pool of schools I would expect the Big 10 to look at. I expect UNC/Duke to stay together if they go elsewhere, and I agree, UNC is in one of the better situations after ND. If all 3 go to the Big 10, that puts them at 19 schools, so one more is a certainty. I don’t think GT is that next call, but I suppose it’s possible. UVA would seem more likely as far as ACC teams go.
I don’t see much reason for the SEC to add Georgia Tech. Clemson, then FSU and Miami, seem the consensus for who they’d target. So that leaves one more (in an expansion to 20). So…maybe? But doubtful.
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