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Bizjournals is projecting that the Raleigh area will grow at the fastest rate of any of the top 250 U.S. metropolitan areas between now and the year 2025. They say:
"The three-county Raleigh metro will virtually double its population during the study period. It had 953,000 residents in 2005, but should be closing in on 1.9 million by 2025.
That’s an increase of 97.7 percent in 20 years, which equals an annual growth rate of 3.5 percent. No other metro will expand as rapidly."
Do you view this continued rapid growth to be positive news for this area, or negative?
For details regarding the Bizjournals study, see:
bizjournals: How much U.S. metros will grow -- bizjournals (http://www.bizjournals.com/edit_special/80.html - broken link)
Great for property values in the established areas, not good for schools in growing areas (overcrowding/redistricting), not good for traffic, not good for airport congestion, not so good for beauty of more rural areas which will be suburbanized.
Do you view this continued rapid growth to be positive news for this area, or negative?
Gosh, let's see--twice the population as now, in the same area. Picture any space in the area and imagine TWICE that many people there. Twice the traffic, twice the lines, twice the schoolchildren, twice the crime, twice the time to drive anywhere...
Thankfully, these predictions are often wrong, and this one was probably made before the recession.
Twice the traffic, twice the lines, twice the schoolchildren, twice the crime, twice the time to drive anywhere...
Thankfully, these predictions are often wrong
I agree. The predictions of twice the bad stuff are most likely wrong. I predict mostly good stuff from our well managed growth. The key is to spread the growth out into individual activity centers.
I think if a good tranportation system (light rail) and more build up of our downtowns (condos, build vertically) it can work out. The less traffic traveling too far and often, the better.
I think if a good tranportation system (light rail) and more build up of our downtowns (condos, build vertically) it can work out. The less traffic traveling too far and often, the better.
Absolutely agreed, Danielle.
Of course, jobs will spread to distal activity centers, too, but don't be surprised to see many of them be average-wage, average-skill jobs. The literature on creative class jobs suggests that proximity to resources like universities, major medical centers, downtowns and large population centers are critical to drawing high-tech, biotech, game design, and all of the other kind of positions that "the RTP" has become known for.
And in this region, that explains why companies like GSK have quasi-blue-collar manufacturing plants in low-cost, highway-oriented places like Zebulon and Johnston Co., but their research facilities and operations centers in RTP (near Duke and UNC) and downtown Durham. As much as we grow into rural areas, the existing areas will continue to draw the best-paying jobs.
(I'm somewhat bemused by the Veridea plan in Apex for this reason, though with 540 connected to the Durham Freeway, there's a fair amount of connectivity there -- but to a certain extent I'll believe it when I see it.)
More speculative: In the long run, "edge cities" on the extremity of cities are likely to face pressure from rising energy prices. Personally, I suspect these areas will over the course of decades become the new lower-middle class or working-class areas with areas like ITB Raleigh and Durham seeing more in-migration of better-educated, higher-income residents seeking access to cultural amenities, car-free living (esp. with booming numbers of senior citizens), families having fewer children, etc.
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