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But I think trickymost might be oversimplifying in applying very large generalizations, based on less-than-certain predictions, to a country which is not one big RE market, but many local ones.
I'm not too worried about my good sense.
Picked up a newspaper regularly?
You and others with a sunshine outlook better pray the European Union finds a way to fix what's wrong with the PIIGS plus now France and Belgium by Tuesday August 16th, or TSHTF shortly thereafter.
My poor sense and judgment informs this fall and maybe into early 2012 is the last gasp for anyone entertaining the thoughts of buying or selling to get out.
Real estate prices, in nominal dollars will decline. Prices will be flat. Inflation will hit hard sometime in late 2012 after the next form of easing, whatever it may look like, hits home.
How about this large generalization: wait until municipal defaults start making otherwise stable regional real estate markets become rather suddenly, quite lousy.
trickymost - i don't understand the inflation fears. we haven't seen inflation, anywhere, and we've been through multiple rounds of QE. we've seen much the opposite. a little inflation would do us good at this point. and how is gold following anything but a classic bubble pattern?
My poor sense and judgment informs this fall and maybe into early 2012 is the last gasp for anyone entertaining the thoughts of buying or selling to get out.
Real estate prices, in nominal dollars will decline. Prices will be flat. Inflation will hit hard sometime in late 2012 after the next form of easing, whatever it may look like, hits home.
I too am worried about major disruptions in that time frame. I managed to sell my house okay earlier this year but I'm scared as hell that the money will turn worthless before I decide where to relocate and buy property. I think my fears are not unfounded.
Quote:
Originally Posted by progmac
trickymost - i don't understand the inflation fears. we haven't seen inflation, anywhere, and we've been through multiple rounds of QE. we've seen much the opposite. a little inflation would do us good at this point. and how is gold following anything but a classic bubble pattern?
Inflation may be the only way out for reconciling the government's debt. Unfortunately inflation is kind of like fire. They try to do a controlled burn but the fire gets away and burns everything.
trickymost - i don't understand the inflation fears. we haven't seen inflation, anywhere, and we've been through multiple rounds of QE. we've seen much the opposite. a little inflation would do us good at this point. and how is gold following anything but a classic bubble pattern?
but maybe this is the topic for another thread.
Where are you looking that you don't see inflation? Rising oil, commodity, and food prices brought QE2 to a halt and forestalled any immediate continuation of QE3. The government even trotted out those "dirty margin short sellers" to trick the public into thinking it was anything but QE which was causing any productive gains or tax breaks to go right into your gas tank in your car.
Why would inflation do us good when the costs of goods and essentials (energy, food, healthcare, taxes) are rising rapidly while real wages, assets (stocks/bonds/real estate) are all flat or falling adjusted for inflation?
Inflation hurts the lower and middle class. The poor don't own stocks or homes but they sure as hell notice when they start having to make decisions like "put gas in the car to go to work to get paid $7/hr to be hardworking and poor, or quit work and collect welfare so my kids can eat".
The middle class start consuming less, hurting retail and commercial RE and can grind our consumption based economy to a fast halt, which was pretty close to happening before the government intervened in the commodity markets to slow oil's rise.
The point relevant to the thread is you have to be insane to be a run of the mill home shopper right now. The risk/reward doesn't support making an investment in the suburbs most anywhere right now. All it takes is 1 muni default or a series of tax hikes + service cuts to make your highly illiquid purchase all of a sudden quite unattractive.
Why do some keep going on about the price.... I guess everyone should just sell their house for a dollar then.... In most cases, in todays market, it has nothing to do with price. That's just typical realtor jargen that the price is to high. I talked to a realtor just the other day and she told me that buyers are being really picky and that it has NOTHING to do with the price. She had many buyers look at this one house that was priced really well but no takers yet.
The only reason why realtors are telling people who have got their home priced right to bring it down again is for their own gain. In reality, even the lower priced homes are still sitting their. It has NOTHING to do with price. So lets put that theory to bed.
The only reason why realtors are telling people who have got their home priced right to bring it down again is for their own gain. In reality, even the lower priced homes are still sitting their. It has NOTHING to do with price. So lets put that theory to bed.
i don't think we can just put to bed the theory of supply and demand
It has NOTHING to do with price. So lets put that theory to bed.
How about this theory? Housing prices are declining in most markets because the slow economy has had a negative effect on large numbers of potential home buyers. And also, expectations of further price declines turns a home purchase into a declining value asset, turning off many potential buyers.
I believe housing prices will continue to decline for at least the next couple years. (Probably longer.) If true then that's a good reason for sellers to drop their price and accelerate the sale.
We don't know if housing will continue to decline. My area has stablized to some degree. Not every city in the US has a declining market right now. Real estate is local. What people are convientently overlooking is that their are many factors as to why a lot of houses aren't selling. Slow markets don't have anything to do with price,whatsoever. It blows my mind that people don't get that. Our economy sucks right now and obviously this is the bulk of the problem.
Two real estate agents said that in my area the mid priced homes aren't selling right now. It's is mainly the 200,000 and under homes. These homes in this price range are not in the greatest areas and the homes aren't the nicest. So this tells me a lot about the income of the buyers. So were are the buyers who can afford the mid priced homes and want to live in a nice neighborhood...
We don't know if housing will continue to decline. My area has stablized to some degree. Not every city in the US has a declining market right now. Real estate is local. What people are convientently overlooking is that their are many factors as to why a lot of houses aren't selling. Slow markets don't have anything to do with price,whatsoever. It blows my mind that people don't get that. Our economy sucks right now and obviously this is the bulk of the problem.
Two real estate agents said that in my area the mid priced homes aren't selling right now. It's is mainly the 200,000 and under homes. These homes in this price range are not in the greatest areas and the homes aren't the nicest. So this tells me a lot about the income of the buyers. So were are the buyers who can afford the mid priced homes and want to live in a nice neighborhood...
So 6 months later, guess what? Home prices declined. By the time the final declines are measured for Q4 2011, housing will have declined between 8-15% nationally, depending on where you live.
Why do people cling to this idea that if a house has a lot of traffic but no buyers that it's priced right?
Why do people cling to this idea that if a house has a lot of traffic but no buyers that it's priced right?
Because they are delusional.
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