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I am not a real estate professional but my spouse is an economist who has formed an executive rental company and is buying foreclosed homes on golf courses in the nw chicago suburbs. So far the houses purchased seem like good deals: they were all purchased for less than 2001 prices. Nonetheless, I am worried that no recovery means never recover. Spouse says that individual houses bought at this way in this market will appreciate but won't show it for 10 - 15 years because any house not on the market now will still have to shed this decade's worth of depreciation because this is not the Great Recession but the Great Deflation. Spouse also thinks that this real estate, stock market, pension and income deflations is what really fuels political anger. Spouse thinks the political flashpoint will come when the middle class - the thrifty and the profligate - realizes that all that value isn't coming back.
What is eye opening from yesterday's report besides the rising inventory is that we are seeing less housing activity now than we did during the depth of this crisis. According to the NAR, there were 4.94 million existing homes sold in 2007, 4.34 million existing homes sold in 2008, and 4.57 million existing homes sold in 2009. The lastest annualized number in that series, for July 2010, is just 3.37 million. That a 26% fall from last year's rate.
You're partially right. The tax credit didn't create that many new buyers, but it did pull a lot of buyers forward. It inflated the early year numbers and made the post tax credit numbers worse. Otherwise we'd be pretty balanced with overall a similar number of sales as we've currently had.
I think you're partially correct, also. YoY it may be close, but think back to how bad 2009 was. We'll see soon enough as the numbers come out through the Fall...
Quote:
Originally Posted by cohdane
I don't buy it.
If any of the Republicans had magic wands or functioning genie bottles, I'd vote for them in a second.
As it is, they're human, influenced by moneyed interests and in the same uncharted economic waters as the Democrats.
The only thing a change will do is give someone else a chance to be the punching bag for the unwinding that has to and will happen.
Would love to be wrong on this, but I don't see/hear anyone who's thinking reflects anything groundbreaking.
I don't buy it either... The Republicans are 100% riding the "see how they screwed it up" slogan and that alone will likely get them power in the House and Senate. McCain's speech after winning his local primary was classic - all BS and no substance.
In the end, these clowns have no clue either. The current administration is bowing to the same economists that the Republicans will... There is no alternate strategy beyond Keynesian economics. The plan will not change. It's a sad mess as next year this time we get to see a whole slew of legislation designed to protect the wealthy's wealth. As usual the middle class gets boned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastsiders
I am not a real estate professional but my spouse is an economist who has formed an executive rental company and is buying foreclosed homes on golf courses in the nw chicago suburbs. So far the houses purchased seem like good deals: they were all purchased for less than 2001 prices. Nonetheless, I am worried that no recovery means never recover. Spouse says that individual houses bought at this way in this market will appreciate but won't show it for 10 - 15 years because any house not on the market now will still have to shed this decade's worth of depreciation because this is not the Great Recession but the Great Deflation. Spouse also thinks that this real estate, stock market, pension and income deflations is what really fuels political anger. Spouse thinks the political flashpoint will come when the middle class - the thrifty and the profligate - realizes that all that value isn't coming back.
Let me get this straight, two years ago the American people voted the Republicans out of the majority, in short, because they turned record surpluses into record deficits, during the Bush years. Do you honestly think the Republicans will be able to fix their mess? How many CEOs and Senior Executives have gotten a 2nd chance, shortly after being fired for being incompetent, to head companies they’ve run into the ground?
Why do we look to polititions to absolve us of taking responsibility for ourselves?
I am unaware of any bubble that did not eventually burst.
This was mania.
No politcian can fix this, yet no politcian can get elected without promising to do so and eventually disappointing ( to say the least) those who put him/her into office.
Last edited by middle-aged mom; 08-25-2010 at 10:58 AM..
Let me remind you that this is not a political forum. You're welcome to discuss national economics as long as it is in connection with real estate market but once the discussion turns to purely political bickering, it'll be locked.
I agree that markets are different in every state. That`s why I don`t like these so-called poles that CNN or the gov seem to stand by.
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