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Actually there is nothing interesting about that. It is EXTREMELY easy to validate actual sold prices in MLS against county records. If mis-reporting like that were to happen in this area, there would be a lot of fines being paid to the local MLS board.
For the life of me I can't figure out why so many people are digging so deep to try to find as much negative information (valid or not) on the housing market as possible.
It seems that national reporting like Case Shiller may be validating against tax records... Yet, local reporting (or anything dependent on MLS only) may be incorrect. You mention how EXTREMELY easy it is, but how often do folks subscribing to MLS actually do that validation? If you do a CMA for me, do you do anything beyond a MLS report?
People are digging deep for a number of reasons... Banks have proven they can't be trusted (AT ALL!) and this data is being used for all sorts of calculations around loans and values.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeJaquish
Local drives national. National is an aggregation that can be swayed by local.
Or:
Show me a home sold in NC on a national platform by a statistical profile seller to a statistical profile buyer, and where the deed, deed of trust, and plat are recorded.
I haven't been doing this forever, but in my experience, it seems that specific homes tend to sell to specific individuals, in specific mappable local locations.
We can BS forever about nebulous and ancedotal national stories and statistics complete with stock photography of models and facades, but the fact remains, real estate transactions transpire on a local level among real flesh and blood people.
Most transactions locally, in my locale, transpire between qualified buyers, sellers with equity or cash to close, and are fairly pedestrian. They do not make good FUD press stories, but they are the heart and norm of statistics that portray the market.
That the central money supply dictates a better qualified buyer is a long-term plus for everyone.
You can't argue both sides... using your own anecdotal evidence and disregarding other anecdotal evidence as BS. The fact remains that locally recorded data rolls up and does have an ultimate impact on national reporting. If you're seeing mostly "pedestrian" transactions involving large amounts of cash, that is much more the exception based on reports.
You should also seriously consider what is happening both nationally and globally with regard to the central money supply. If you think that this is "dictating a better qualified buyer as a long term plus for everyone", you should re-evaluate. The manipulation by the Fed is at epic proportions and they're in so deep they can't stop... Where do you get/read your financial news from?
If you do a CMA for me, do you do anything beyond a MLS report?
I actually START with the tax records. Then I compare it to what I find in MLS and several other data sources. To use only one source is irresponsible. No one source has all the info you need - tax records are notorious for having incorrect square footage and do not show things like financial concessions such as seller paid closing posts. MLS doesn’t have every single sale, but those sales have to be recorded with the county so you have to use tax records.
I actually START with the tax records. Then I compare it to what I find in MLS and several other data sources. To use only one source is irresponsible. No one source has all the info you need - tax records are notorious for having incorrect square footage and do not show things like financial concessions such as seller paid closing posts. MLS doesn’t have every single sale, but those sales have to be recorded with the county so you have to use tax records.
Fair enough - would you argue that all your peers do as well?
How about the monthly industry reports from MLS? Are those validated against tax records?
It seems that national reporting like Case Shiller may be validating against tax records... Yet, local reporting (or anything dependent on MLS only) may be incorrect. You mention how EXTREMELY easy it is, but how often do folks subscribing to MLS actually do that validation? If you do a CMA for me, do you do anything beyond a MLS report?
People are digging deep for a number of reasons... Banks have proven they can't be trusted (AT ALL!) and this data is being used for all sorts of calculations around loans and values.
You can't argue both sides... using your own anecdotal evidence and disregarding other anecdotal evidence as BS. The fact remains that locally recorded data rolls up and does have an ultimate impact on national reporting. If you're seeing mostly "pedestrian" transactions involving large amounts of cash, that is much more the exception based on reports.
You should also seriously consider what is happening both nationally and globally with regard to the central money supply. If you think that this is "dictating a better qualified buyer as a long term plus for everyone", you should re-evaluate. The manipulation by the Fed is at epic proportions and they're in so deep they can't stop... Where do you get/read your financial news from?
I am NOT arguing both sides.
Fact:
I am in a people-to-people business, real estate brokerage. I am not in the media-statistic business.
My clients, and most everyone else's clients I have ever met, are always people rather than statistics. Every one of them, whether they borrow, pay cash, sell or don't, are people.
I have never argued differently.
If you know people who can service statistics without dealing with people, it may be interesting to meet them. They all probably have 2.2 kids.
Last edited by MikeJaquish; 09-02-2010 at 11:10 AM..
Fact:
I am in a people-to-people business, real estate brokerage. I am not in the media-statistic business.
My clients, and most everyone else's clients I have ever met, are always people rather than statistics. Every one of them, whether they borrow, pay cash, sell or don't, are people.
I have never argued differently.
If you know people who can service statistics without dealing with people, it may be interesting to meet them. They all probably have 2.2 kids.
So at the end of the day your entire business model does not include anything beyond personal interactions and a just in time, service my client's needs right now strategy. There's no forward looking aspects at all to the way you run your business?
Haha true... I guess we just drop our pants to the lowest we can go before we can't afford to sell anymore and see what happens....
If you bought 100 shares of ABC stock and decided to sell it right now, what you paid, need or want out of the sale has nothing to do with what the market will pay for the stock.
From a buyer's perspective, housing is fungible. If they can't buy this place, they will buy that place or maybe no place.
There are about 12,500 condos within the city limits, sitting amongst the unsellables, right now. The condos being sold and closed tend to be the best values.
We would be happy if we could get a showing! I don't think we have had one showing in a month or so...it's brutal out there. We are even listed 3% lower then what we bought for already. It doesn't even seem like we are on the market
We are in the same boat. No showings even though we just lowered the price substantially. We'd love just to have an offer. It's a small college town in beautiful Shenandoah Valley popular for retirees, but who can afford to retire??
Fact:
I am in a people-to-people business, real estate brokerage. I am not in the media-statistic business.
My clients, and most everyone else's clients I have ever met, are always people rather than statistics. Every one of them, whether they borrow, pay cash, sell or don't, are people.
I have never argued differently.
If you know people who can service statistics without dealing with people, it may be interesting to meet them. They all probably have 2.2 kids.
So at the end of the day your entire business model does not include anything beyond personal interactions and a just in time, service my client's needs right now strategy. There's no forward looking aspects at all to the way you run your business?
Why would something as detached from Kildaire Farm Road in Cary as worrying about foreclosure rates in Las Vegas, or South Florida take priority over client service?
Should I plot bond futures and read frothy prognostications, or send a client who wishes to buy a home to a great lender? The latter is better service, I think.
I worked with a guy once who said the job is to do the job, not to "get lost in the corn flakes in your mind." He was pretty focused.
Obsessing about every negative and barely cogent unsupported piece of news, as so many "big picture, industry" obsessors prefer to do, whether it is applicable to what I see daily or not is not healthy, and would not be good client service.
I think some people fail to see the tree, because they are so concerned about the forest.
I just might be onto something. It seems that most complaints about real estate agents center around failure to make client service the first priority.
Last edited by MikeJaquish; 09-02-2010 at 01:10 PM..
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