California leads housing recovery (foreclosed, investment, mortgages, sales)

[glenn_1000]

The national housing market is shrouded in uncertainty. But in California, there are glimmers of stability.

Home prices are rising in virtually every corner of the state. They've climbed for nine consecutive months, and in July posted a 10.4% gain year-over-year. That puts the state's median price at $315,000 -- nearly twice the national median of $183,000.'

Most of the subprime-related distressed properties have been flushed from the system. And when a foreclosure does hit the market, it's snapped up. The median days it took to sell a home in July was just 44 -- lightening fast.


For home sellers in other states, what's happening in California is encouraging. Trends often begin on the coast, so they're hoping the recovery will roll eastward.



http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/15/real...ound/index.htm

[MikeyKid]

I missed you glenn! Your MSM articles kill me, though... lol

I won't go all "beans and bullets" on you, but have you thought about the economy at all? Japan did a major currency intervention LAST NIGHT and there are some scary implications coming out of the Fed meeting tomorrow. Certainly more Quantitative Easing for the US on its way... The stock market is dead and people are running to precious metals. Unemployment is frightening... Foreclosures and bankruptcies continue at record highs and only getting worse.

I just don't get how you throw up a chart like that and come to the conclusions you do. Quoting MSM articles? Come on... Housing will NOT lead the recovery - it will lag it. People need to be working before they're going to buy your overpriced real estate.

[whathousingrecovery?]

Oh Silly Glenn


"Southern California Home Sales and Median Price Dip in July"

Southland home sale report

"A total of 18,946 new and resale homes were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in July. That was down 20.6 percent from 23,871 in June, and down 21.4 percent from 24,104 for July 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
This was the slowest July since 2007, when 17,867 homes were sold, and the second-slowest since July 1995, when 16,225 sold. Last month’s sales were 27.4 percent lower than the July average of 26,085 sales since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The average change in sales between June and July is a 6.7 percent decline – about one-third the drop seen this year. Last month’s 21.4 percent sales drop from a year ago marked the steepest year-over-year decline for Southland sales since March 2008, when sales fell 41.4 percent. "


"California MLS inventory up 25 percent since April. MLS public data at 144,000 but 742,000 mortgages in California are in foreclosure or one payment behind"

California MLS inventory up 25 percent since April. MLS public data at 144,000 but 742,000 mortgages in California are in foreclosure or one payment behind.


Oh, and let's not forget that your state is bankrupt with a 19 Billion dollar deficit.


"The Muddle Years – Why the California economy is destined for years of slow growth and declining home values. 10 charts showing California still deep in recession and no state budget as we enter September."

The Muddle Years

[MikeyKid]

You know it's bad when even MSNBC reports housing issues! This is a clear change in your typical MSM reporting and I have no way to explain it.

News Headlines

Home Price Double Dip Begins

The trouble with many of the "indicators" we report is that some are pretty current and others are severely lagging. Home sales are generally the former and home prices the latter. That's why, given the combination of the expiration of the home buyer tax credit and the increasing number of loans moving to final foreclosure, we knew that home prices overall would take a hit, but it would take a while.
Well we're here.
Two new reports out today prove the consequences of oversupply of organic inventory (12.5 months on existing homes in July according to the National Association of Realtors) and the shadow inventory of foreclosed properties (estimates vary widely and wildly). CoreLogic's Home Price Index shows home prices "flat" in July as transaction volume continues to decline. "This was the first time in five months that no year-over-year gains were reported," according to the release. In June, prices were up 2.4 percent year over year. In addition, "36 states experienced price declines in July, twice the number in May and the highest number since last November when prices nationally were still declining."

[DMenscha]

BTW CNN also ran the story.

[MikeyKid]

Originally Posted by DMenscha

BTW CNN also ran the story.

Wait - CNN ran glenn's story... are you saying CNN ran 2 stories #1 "California leads housing recovery" and #2 "Home Price Double Dip Begins"?

Then I fully believe MSM is just trying to confuse people at this point. lol

[glenn_1000]

Why am I not surprised to hear these clueless responses, especially from mikey. I guess you are still grasping at the only shred of negativity you have left, that is too bad cause the truth hurts don't it! haha. I post facts-you post speculation. And where is it saying housing leads an economic recovery? The market leads the recovery, which it already has, followed by manufacturing, already happening, followed by housing, market bottom last year where were you? And lastly followed by jobs, which will explode when all the money companies are sitting on get put to work. Face it; you missed the bottom in housing! LOL.

[Debsi]

Thanks for the laugh. Prices are still out of line with income. This can not stand, man.

Doctor Housing bubble suggested just today that another price drop is coming in 2011.

[MikeyKid]

Originally Posted by glenn_1000

Why am I not surprised to hear these clueless responses, especially from mikey. I guess you are still grasping at the only shred of negativity you have left, that is too bad cause the truth hurts don't it! haha. I post facts-you post speculation. And where is it saying housing leads an economic recovery? The market leads the recovery, which it already has, followed by manufacturing, already happening, followed by housing, market bottom last year where were you? And lastly followed by jobs, which will explode when all the money companies are sitting on get put to work. Face it; you missed the bottom in housing! LOL.

Oh my - I really want the koolaid you're drinking. I really do.

I could shower you with "facts" and links, but instead I'll try to help you. Maybe if I understood why you were such a housing bull, that would help me help you... But I can only guess that you have some skin in the housing industry where you need a recovery to recoup equity and/or simply sell your house? Not sure - anyway:

If you want to truly have a serious discussion about "California leads housing recovery" (this was your OP), let's start with the most basic of FACTS.

#1 - Debt. California (and for all intents and purposes the USA) is insolvent. They are only making their short term debt obligations through generating additional longer term debt. Think of it in terms of your own personal finances - imagine you were paying minimum payments on a credit card by writing cash advances on another card. For you, it would end when the banks cut you off... For the US, this doesn't apply. I won't go into a deep Keynesian discussion or try to explain how The Fed works, I'll just assume you have some basic understanding of macro economics. There can be no recovery with an economy choking on debt.

#2 - Recession. We are entering into another recession... All the reputable economists and investment bankers are calling it at this point. I won't even hit you with the extreme opinions out there about how we never exited the recession in the first place and that this is the longest one in history (aka depression) - I'll give the MSM media the benefit of the doubt and call it a "double dip". There can be no recovery with an economy in recession.

#3 - Market leads. You stated the "market leads the recovery, which it already has" and I have to resist a tremendous urge to go off on that one. I'll just stick to facts. There has been nineteen (19) consecutive weeks of net outflows out of the stock market and most people will agree there are no retail investors left. What you're seeing "traded" in equities are computer algorithms from high frequency traders with Fed intervention - all the investors are moving money into precious metals. Take a look at the price of gold. I'm not some crazy goldbug or anything so I won't get into commentary... Just point out that money is moving out of the market at an incredible rate. There can be no recovery when the stock market is just a casino playground for hedge funds and derivative traders.

#4 - Manufacturing follows the market? I don't even know where to begin on this one! The US is not a manufacturing country anymore. It hasn't been for a very long time. We are a consumption and service economy now. We import all our stuff from China where they make it cheaper. There will be no recovery due to manufacturing.

#5 - Jobs. I don't even know where to begin to attack that one. Foreclosures and bankruptcies continue at record levels - you can find the statistics anywhere. The U6 number is down right frightening and the overall data around how many folks who can work are actually working will blow your mind. It's the lowest it's EVER been and you should look this stuff up. You do realize that they "adjust" the numbers after they're reported, right? Follow-up. There can be no recovery with nobody working.

I could go on... But understand that housing won't "recover" magically. The bubble has passed and you can be bullish all you want. Us arguing here won't change the cold hard facts that you like to pretend are on your side.

[almost3am]

Originally Posted by MikeyKid

Oh my - I really want the koolaid you're drinking. I really do.

I could shower you with "facts" and links, but instead I'll try to help you. Maybe if I understood why you were such a housing bull, that would help me help you... But I can only guess that you have some skin in the housing industry where you need a recovery to recoup equity and/or simply sell your house? Not sure - anyway:

If you want to truly have a serious discussion about "California leads housing recovery" (this was your OP), let's start with the most basic of FACTS.

#1 - Debt. California (and for all intents and purposes the USA) is insolvent. They are only making their short term debt obligations through generating additional longer term debt. Think of it in terms of your own personal finances - imagine you were paying minimum payments on a credit card by writing cash advances on another card. For you, it would end when the banks cut you off... For the US, this doesn't apply. I won't go into a deep Keynesian discussion or try to explain how The Fed works, I'll just assume you have some basic understanding of macro economics. There can be no recovery with an economy choking on debt.

#2 - Recession. We are entering into another recession... All the reputable economists and investment bankers are calling it at this point. I won't even hit you with the extreme opinions out there about how we never exited the recession in the first place and that this is the longest one in history (aka depression) - I'll give the MSM media the benefit of the doubt and call it a "double dip". There can be no recovery with an economy in recession.

#3 - Market leads. You stated the "market leads the recovery, which it already has" and I have to resist a tremendous urge to go off on that one. I'll just stick to facts. There has been nineteen (19) consecutive weeks of net outflows out of the stock market and most people will agree there are no retail investors left. What you're seeing "traded" in equities are computer algorithms from high frequency traders with Fed intervention - all the investors are moving money into precious metals. Take a look at the price of gold. I'm not some crazy goldbug or anything so I won't get into commentary... Just point out that money is moving out of the market at an incredible rate. There can be no recovery when the stock market is just a casino playground for hedge funds and derivative traders.

#4 - Manufacturing follows the market? I don't even know where to begin on this one! The US is not a manufacturing country anymore. It hasn't been for a very long time. We are a consumption and service economy now. We import all our stuff from China where they make it cheaper. There will be no recovery due to manufacturing.

#5 - Jobs. I don't even know where to begin to attack that one. Foreclosures and bankruptcies continue at record levels - you can find the statistics anywhere. The U6 number is down right frightening and the overall data around how many folks who can work are actually working will blow your mind. It's the lowest it's EVER been and you should look this stuff up. You do realize that they "adjust" the numbers after they're reported, right? Follow-up. There can be no recovery with nobody working.

I could go on... But understand that housing won't "recover" magically. The bubble has passed and you can be bullish all you want. Us arguing here won't change the cold hard facts that you like to pretend are on your side.

I have seen mixed projections from very reliable economists, I believe it is truly unknown where we currently are heading economically. Corporations are making lots of money, but aren't investing it back yet...because everything is so unclear.