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[quote=Karen59;17599051]I understood what you meant and I tend to agree with you--a tragic world event would bring down all prices due to angst and pessimism among the population. It's another unknowable. If the crises was contained, however, prices would quickly rise again. My dad said as much a few months ago, and suggested it would be a good time to buy (after a tragic world event). (He was actually talking about stocks, but maybe real estate same thing.) I guess he is quite a cynic, but also he was speaking unguardedly. I guess the main thing he meant was is--it would be a time to hold on and try to be optimistic when others are losing heart.[/quote]
That's essentially what Warren Buffett advocates, doing the opposite of the masses. When the stock market and 401ks were going into the tank last year he said it was a great time to put more $ in while everyone else was pulling out.
"the term black swan has recently been made famous by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. But this was a fairly common expression even in 16th century London as a phrase describing the impossibility of an event occurring. The reason being that in those days in the western world, there were only white swans and hence, black swan was used to signify impossibility."
Every realtor I have talked to in Phoenix says that 2010 was the bottom.
Of course they said that about 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006.
So the next time a realtor says "this is bottom", drop trou and show them an actual bottom.
HonestOne, it was The Cromford Report that called the bottom in April 2009. It held until a few days ago when there was a slight dip below that number.
I like to hear other peoples opinion of the market, and their reasoning.
what is your prediction of the valley real estate market?
where is the market headed?
when will it recover?
I own two rental properties. Should I sell them, or hang onto them?
I own two rental properties. Should I sell them, or hang onto them?
Rental properties should only be held if the rental income provides a profit.
Unless there is a clear reason to expect a capital gain ( there is a mall that will begin construction
nearby in a couple years ), anyone expecting to get a gain in the near future is dreaming.
If you really expect the RE market to improve in 5 or so years, buy a security that pays a dividend
that is tied to RE and hope for the best. At least you know what your max loss could possibly be.
Are you really this out of touch with what is going on in your own country? Will you be ok when you have to pay twice as much on your mortgage when you renegotiate in 5 years?
Why would someone with a conforming loan need to renegotiate in 5 years?
Every realtor I have talked to in Phoenix says that 2010 was the bottom.
Of course they said that about 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006.
So the next time a realtor says "this is bottom", drop trou and show them an actual bottom.
I came across one this morning when I was walking through a neighbourhood eyeing houses for sale. She said, "now is the time to buy. This (listed at $89K) is going to be worth $150K by this time next year..." She had that fake sincerity smile on her face when she said that too.
She said, "now is the time to buy. This (listed at $89K) is going to be worth $150K by this time next year..."
Really?! I'd say to her, if you put that in writing and make it part of the contract, I'll buy the house. Next year, I'll list the house with you and, if it sells for less, you and your lieing firm can make up the difference.
Words are cheap and integrity is rare - especially in the real estate profession. Her statement is a fine example of it.
I came across one this morning when I was walking through a neighbourhood eyeing houses for sale. She said, "now is the time to buy. This (listed at $89K) is going to be worth $150K by this time next year..." She had that fake sincerity smile on her face when she said that too.
Who said this? Your realtor? I would drop her in a second.
[quote=garth;17721319]Really?! I'd say to her, if you put that in writing and make it part of the contract, I'll buy the house. Next year, I'll list the house with you and, if it sells for less, you and your lieing firm can make up the difference.
Words are cheap and integrity is rare - especially in the real estate profession. Her statement is a fine example of it.[/quote]
There are bad apples in every area of life. But to paint the entire real estate profession with that old broad brush is not fair to those agents and Realtors who are dedicated professionals and rely on personal referrals and excell in performance for the buyers and sellers.
It is glaringly obvious that this alleged remark was made (if a true quote) by an idiot who has no business whatsoever having a real estate license. Guaranteed, she won't be around very long.
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