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Old 06-30-2011, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
399 posts, read 1,800,293 times
Reputation: 424

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mortimer View Post
Experts are still asked to do so and they gladly do.

You can read predictions from Paulson, Bernanke, and a jillion other
"experts" from 2007 saying that everything appears to be just fine.

Any predictions from presidents and congresscritters I always assume to
come from financial and scientific illiterates and automatically dismiss them.
True enough. So the question becomes: are the predictions of experts so frequently wrong because they have reason to intentionally mislead the public, or because they simply cannot predict what will happen in a system as complicated as the world economy? Cynics, optimists and economists can probably all agree that it's some combination of both.

In our universe there do exist systems which contain so many variables, so many feedback loops, so many stipulations and contingencies, that no reasonable amount of analysis, no examination of any partial group of metrics, can predict its future course. Economies approach this degree of complexity. Sure, general relationships between economic variables are well understood. That's how economists earn their PhDs. But to predict with the certainty that some here casually toss about is simply not possible.

It's the same reason that explains why even highly paid mutual fund managers, the, um, "best of the best", cannot do better than a dart-throwing-monkey over any modest length of time. Even I can tell you the DJIA will open strong tomorrow, but I sure as hell can't say where it'll end in a week, let alone a month or a year, or LOL, ten years... as those in this thread claim to be able to do with RE.

And we arrive, again, at the reason for which CD's armchair economists' cocksure predictions are utterly absurd. Like so many in this thread who state with absolute certainty (or cheer those who do the stating) "The RE market shall fall another X% and will NOT recover for X more years! It's so obvious! All who disagree are naive! They're eyes must be filled with mud!"

Really, guys? Exactly how sure are you? Let's go for a little accountability in this thread. Don't be shy. It'll be fun.

399083453, why don't you throw out a probability for us. Are you 80% certain the US market will continue to fall for 15 years? Or is it 90%? How about a measly 5 years... surely you can give a precise probability for that blink of an eye.

Happehart, please give a number to your confidence. Are you 51% certain US home prices will not him bottom until 2020... or are you 95% certain? I really am curious. You claim it's "obvious"... what percent probability is "obvious"?

Flat2MT, I'd love to hear back from you. Once we get some real leadership in the White House, will it take 5, 10, or 15 years for new home sales to reach 2001-2 levels? I answered your question; please return the favor. I'm sure we could all learn from it.
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Old 06-30-2011, 09:24 PM
 
4,567 posts, read 10,625,503 times
Reputation: 6725
Quote:
Really, guys? Exactly how sure are you? Let's go for a little accountability in this thread. Don't be shy. It'll be fun.
I'm not sure of anything........ but I do like to discuss things. You can draw your own conclusions and profit or peril.

Beyond all the foreclosure problems, bank troubles, etc, we have 77 million baby boomers who will begin retiring in the next several years. It is this population who have driven the price of housing up and up over the last 30 years. As they watch their homes, stocks, and retirement investments devalued, they will loose interest in continuing their buy up trend. Some will even sell their homes to fund their retirements and move to sunny climates. I doubt many will want to move from a sunny climate to cold and rainy Seattle for retirement.

The population in the US may be increasing, but immigrants typically do not have the funds to purchase large, expensive homes from the baby boomer population. Furthermore, the generation behind the boomers only consist of approximately 46 million people and typically do not have the funds to purchase expensive homes. Who will buy the boomers homes?

In the next 15-20 years, a dominant trend in real estate will be boomers either selling larger homes and down sizing or at least stopping the buy up trend every several years. This will blunt the housing recovery. It seems that the current credit crisis will actually accelerate a trend that was already coming.
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Old 06-30-2011, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
399 posts, read 1,800,293 times
Reputation: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by 399083453 View Post
I'm not sure of anything.
So after all the monotone links you've posted, after all the quotations you so carefully chose and groomed, after pushing forward for 27 pages with a singularly ominous forecast... after all of that, you tell us you're not sure of anything? That's the degree of confidence backing your position?



I want my money back.
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Old 06-30-2011, 10:03 PM
 
4,567 posts, read 10,625,503 times
Reputation: 6725
Nothing is certain but death and taxes. Again.... you can draw your own conclusions and profit or peril.
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Old 07-01-2011, 11:28 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
399 posts, read 1,800,293 times
Reputation: 424
Ask for a little specificity, a little conviction, and all you can offer are platitudes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnHenrySDM View Post
Even I can tell you the DJIA will open strong tomorrow...
Nailed it...

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Old 07-01-2011, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,017 posts, read 20,869,471 times
Reputation: 32530
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnHenrySDM View Post
Ask for a little specificity, a little conviction, and all you can offer are platitudes?
Off-topic. Riding one particular poster. What is the point? The rest of us are not interested. Please stick to "Sinking real estate market for 15 years?"
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Old 07-01-2011, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC dreaming of other places
983 posts, read 2,534,485 times
Reputation: 791
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnHenrySDM View Post
Happehart, please give a number to your confidence. Are you 51% certain US home prices will not him bottom until 2020... or are you 95% certain? I really am curious. You claim it's "obvious"... what percent probability is "obvious"?
What difference does it make my confidence percentage, I wish if my crystal ball works with percentage.

Here are the facts that we all know of so far:
1. Home prices are at it's Lowest in the past 4 years.
2. Employment rate still hovering around 10% (higher in some parts of the country)
3. Number of foreclosures is still steady
4. Election year is 2012

Based on all the above and the fact that it takes 7 years to build credit again, we are still in for a long ride till we see a real change. Some parts of the country might see a slight change earlier, we all heared in the news Seattle, San Francisco and Atlanta saw a little improvement. But again nothing certain except for death.. even taxes are not certain.
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Old 07-01-2011, 04:52 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque
5,548 posts, read 16,052,382 times
Reputation: 2756
Quote:
Originally Posted by happehart
2. Employment rate still hovering around 10%
I'd like to point out that is the "official" Unemployment rate.

Although you actually meant to say unemployment rate,
the employment rate ( labor force participation rate ) hovers
just over 60% when previously it was just under 70%.
It's a better indicator than the unemployment rate.

It also supports your arguments ( better ).
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Old 07-01-2011, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC dreaming of other places
983 posts, read 2,534,485 times
Reputation: 791
Default Oops

Quote:
Originally Posted by mortimer View Post
I'd like to point out that is the "official" Unemployment rate.

Although you actually meant to say unemployment rate,
the employment rate ( labor force participation rate ) hovers
just over 60% when previously it was just under 70%.
It's a better indicator than the unemployment rate.

It also supports your arguments ( better ).
Thanks for the correction.
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Old 07-02-2011, 09:23 PM
 
776 posts, read 1,668,888 times
Reputation: 454
Quote:
Originally Posted by 399083453 View Post
Nice chart. Actually, it supports my point. Japan and the USA have so much in common, aging demographics, skyrocketing housing prices, etc. Our government is pursuing the same bailout strategy the Japanese followed, and will likely get the same results. Looking at the chart, as we follow the same path as Japan, it looks like we should reach 2000 housing prices around 2019.



PS. To all the naysayers, what we are talking about in this thread is happening..... right now. Choosing to ignore reality doesn't make it go away.
It has already happened in MOST of this country by now. In fact in parts of Florida we hit 2000 prices by spring of 2009. The real estate bubble is mostly overseas these days with few exceptions..
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