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The turnaround will happen at different times in different locations, just like the crash. For instance, in Florida, people are already talking about just walking away from their houses as values plummet, while the market in Southern California continues to coast along on the level at record highs while the sales have fallen away, just like Wile-Y-Coyote after he runs off a cliff.
Florida and the other crash leaders will probably bottom out in 2010, with late 2008/early 2009 being the worst of the storm. Values will begin to rise again by 2011 and things will be back to "normal" levels (pre-boom) by 2013.
California and the other stragglers will probably not hit bottom until late 2011, and the crash will probably reach epic proportions in the 2009-2010 time frame. Everywhere else will be somewhere in-between.
So my estimate is that the average nationwide "bottom" will be reached sometime in late 2010 and the first signs of recovery will be in 2011.
The turnaround will happen at different times in different locations, just like the crash. For instance, in Florida, people are already talking about just walking away from their houses as values plummet, while the market in Southern California continues to coast along on the level at record highs while the sales have fallen away, just like Wile-Y-Coyote after he runs off a cliff.
Florida and the other crash leaders will probably bottom out in 2010, with late 2008/early 2009 being the worst of the storm. Values will begin to rise again by 2011 and things will be back to "normal" levels (pre-boom) by 2013.
California and the other stragglers will probably not hit bottom until late 2011, and the crash will probably reach epic proportions in the 2009-2010 time frame. Everywhere else will be somewhere in-between.
So my estimate is that the average nationwide "bottom" will be reached sometime in late 2010 and the first signs of recovery will be in 2011.
Good post, Michigan may be a bit further down the road at this rate.
FISHKIND: FLORIDA'S HOUSING MARKET NOW IN SLOW RECOVERY (Hank Fishkind is widely considered as the top expert in the economics of Florida Real Estate.)
ORLANDO, Fla. - Aug. 30, 2007 - Popular perceptions about the housing market are wrong, says noted economist Hank Fishkind
Moderator cut: copyrights
FISHKIND: FLORIDA'S HOUSING MARKET NOW IN SLOW RECOVERY (Hank Fishkind is widely considered as the top expert in the economics of Florida Real Estate.)
ORLANDO, Fla. - Aug. 30, 2007 - Popular perceptions about the housing market are wrong, says noted economist Hank Fishkind
Moderator cut: copyrights
I can't believe this was posted. This is the worst finacial porn out there. Hank Siskind is a BOARD MEMBER of summit properties (who is a REIT of luxury apartment condos). Check out what he thinks of the Miami market from his article back in '06
Widely considered Top expert by who? the NAR and the shills who follow them? Do you actually think we (the public) all fell off the turnip truck at once?
Show this article to all the people on the Florida board who can't sell. I'd like to see what they think of this...
FISHKIND: FLORIDA'S HOUSING MARKET NOW IN SLOW RECOVERY
(Hank Fishkind is widely considered as the top expert in the economics of Florida Real Estate.)
ORLANDO, Fla. - Aug. 30, 2007 - Popular perceptions about the housing market are wrong, says noted economist Hank Fishkind, who believes the market reached bottom a few months ago. Fishkind looks for trends in real estate statistical releases, and says that things may not be great but there's also no indication that they're getting worse.
98% of this article is proposing that home prices won't decline based on one man's "belief". The other 2% points to a transient flattening in the decline of NEW home starts. The California Association of Realtors likes to do the exact same thing, as if they can stave off economic realities with words alone. Let's read on.
Quote:
"The variance between the real economic data and people's perceptions was enormous," Fishkind said. "While home starts have dropped 36 percent from their peak, starts have stabilized over the last six months with no further erosion. Friday's report on new home sales confirms that the market has bottomed out. Sales actually increased 2.7 percent to an annual pace ... and the inventory of new but unsold homes declined."
So, new home starts are down 1/3 and flat. Pointing to one "positive" monthly report and saying that it indicates anything about long-term trends is really grasping at straws.
Quote:
Fishkind agrees that sales of existing homes are down, but also looks at the amount of the drop and recent changes. "Importantly, the sales of existing homes were again stable for the seventh month in a row," he says. "While recovery may be some time off, it is clear that Florida's housing markets have bottomed out."
Fishkind does not believe Florida home prices will decline any further over the next 18 to 36 months, but he does expect them to remain generally flat, depending on where they're located in the state.
Here's the most telling passage. So home prices will remain flat for 1 to 3 years? That's a pretty wide range there, with a LOT of qualifications, and it puts us out into 2011. Does a slow decline = "generally" flat? Lots of weasel wording going on.
Quote:
"The more overbuilt markets will take longer to recover," Fishkind says. "But fears that prices will drop significantly are unfounded. And so is the pervasive panic. The economy is stronger than the reports about it."
Supporting evidence? Or is this another "belief" or "feeling"?
Quote:
Sarasota market continues to be bright spot in Florida real estate
Sales of homes and condominiums compiled in the Sarasota MLS system, and sales within the Sarasota-Bradenton Metropolitan Service Area (MSA), are continuing to reflect strength compared to the overall state of Florida.
Better than the rest of Florida? That's not terribly reassuring. Metro areas are also always the last to go. They also tend to suffer less in terms of falling prices, compared to the suburbs and small towns. For a variety of reasons, those who were overly optimistic about their ability to afford a home opt for a big place in the suburbs rather than a small townhouse in the city.
Quote:
"When you look at the numbers, we are clearly seeing the Sarasota market taking the lead in the anticipated real estate market recovery in Florida," said Joe Hembree, 2007 SAR President .
The fox called and left a message, he said the henhouse is safe and sound.
Quote:
"Our Association has taken the lead in educating the public concerning the fundamentals of our market, and this has made a big difference. Local real estate agents have also done an excellent job of counseling sellers on the need to price their properties realistically.
That pretty much sums it up.
Quote:
With an eye toward the bigger picture, and discounting the historically abnormal years of 2003-2005, we have seen a return to the normal market experienced as recently as 2001 and 2002, Hembree noted.
In July 2001, there were 359 homes and 175 condos reported sold in the Sarasota MLS. In July 2002, there were 328 homes and 187 condos sold. The biggest difference this July is that the median price, even with recent declines, is still much higher than those recent years.
The median home in July 2001 sold for $176,000, and the median condo sale price was $132,000. The numbers went up a little in July 2002 - $190,000 for a single family home, and $179,900 for a condo. But the figures are much higher today - $299,000 for a home, and $310,000 for a condo - so the overall sales volume is far greater.
Unless the population of Sarasota has actually decreased between 2001 and 2007, hitting the same sales volume as you had 6 years ago is hardly something to crow about. Lots and lots of cherry-picking going on, and we see why in the next bold statement:
Quote:
The current market is in a normal adjustment period, which makes this an historic buyer's market," Hembree continued. "Our area has always offered tremendous amenities, abundant cultural assets, and great natural beauty and climate. Now, it's all more affordable than it was two years ago." The lowest point in the recent local market was apparently reached in December 2006, when only 355 sales closed. Sales have escalated since then, and were much higher in July 2007, with 528 total sales - almost 50 percent higher than the sales low. The strong pending sales numbers - nearly 500 reported pending sales - continue to reflect a brighter future as the Sarasota area begins to enter the traditionally stronger fall and winter sales period.[b]*This press release was sent to local media on Aug. 27 by the Sarasota Association of Realtors
The Sarasota Association of WHAT?
Now, as a renter, let me cop to something that the realtor press releases seldom do: I have a vested interest in seeing home values decline. I could be anywhere from completely overestimating how far housing prices will fall to badly underestimating them. However, looking at historical trends and a whole lot of data compiled by people with more time and insight than me leads me to believe that prices will stabilize in line with an overall affordability index compared to incomes. That's very bad news for anyone who bought after 2003, anyone who wants to buy or sell at the moment, okay news for people who bought before that, and okay news for people looking to buy in the future.
Quote:
The current market is in a normal adjustment period, which makes this an historic buyer's market,"
As a prospective buyer, this mistruth bothers me to no end. Do I have a huge selection of homes to choose from? Certainly. Are any of them a smart purchase? Not a chance. I could've chosen from a large selection of tech stocks during the bursting of that bubble in 2001. Would you call that a buyer's market? It will be a buyers market sometime after 2009, once the majority of ARMs have adjusted and further flooded the already-overstocked market with foreclosed properties. Add another year or so for people to stop panicking (they are not now, but they will, soon) and then you'll have your recovery and a buyer's market.
Just like the realtor who posted a couple weeks ago about how they always show the highest commissioned house first to buyers, articles like this is what gives realtors' bad names....
Ok, I know I will not be popular with a lot of the naysayers, but I had no problem selling my Florida home earlier this year. Yes, I bought it in 2004, and I also know when something is a good deal. I also have an investment home that I have had two different realtors ask me to let them list because it is in the price range of what is 'hot' right now. Those are two respected realtors asking for a listing. Yes, I bought it in 2005 and could still walk away with quite a bit of money. My mother in law has her house FSBO in Miami, got her asking price, and has a back up contract on it. Not everyone who bought in the last few years got ripped off. In fact, I don't know anyone who can't make a profit off their homes. maybe not as much as they want, but they can sell if they want to. Not saying some people aren't in trouble, but come one, it's not the majority of people.
Ok, I know I will not be popular with a lot of the naysayers, but I had no problem selling my Florida home earlier this year. Yes, I bought it in 2004, and I also know when something is a good deal. I also have an investment home that I have had two different realtors ask me to let them list because it is in the price range of what is 'hot' right now. Those are two respected realtors asking for a listing. Yes, I bought it in 2005 and could still walk away with quite a bit of money. My mother in law has her house FSBO in Miami, got her asking price, and has a back up contract on it. Not everyone who bought in the last few years got ripped off. In fact, I don't know anyone who can't make a profit off their homes. maybe not as much as they want, but they can sell if they want to. Not saying some people aren't in trouble, but come one, it's not the majority of people.
I'm glad you did well. Honest! But I can't sell my home for the appraised value in 2000.
Ok, I know I will not be popular with a lot of the naysayers, but I had no problem selling my Florida home earlier this year. Yes, I bought it in 2004, and I also know when something is a good deal. I also have an investment home that I have had two different realtors ask me to let them list because it is in the price range of what is 'hot' right now. Those are two respected realtors asking for a listing. Yes, I bought it in 2005 and could still walk away with quite a bit of money. My mother in law has her house FSBO in Miami, got her asking price, and has a back up contract on it. Not everyone who bought in the last few years got ripped off. In fact, I don't know anyone who can't make a profit off their homes. maybe not as much as they want, but they can sell if they want to. Not saying some people aren't in trouble, but come one, it's not the majority of people.
If the agents want to list your house, why not put it on the market to see if they can really sell it? Our house should have been snapped up pretty quick, but here it sits after 3 months. We just got a new agent, so hopefully that will help.
Anyway, I might have gone FSBO also but am not sure if I can deal with showings & stuff with my bad back. I'd be afraid to do this on my own during the week.
If we did FSBO, we could lower the price by the commission amount and probably sell tomorrow.
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Sarasota, Fl. Market
