Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
... here [east of Seattle] there are multiple offers above asking price on all homes under about $600,000, and I have heard from people in the SF Bay Area that it's the same there. According to the various real estate sites our value has gone up 11-15% in the last two months ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitman619
So Cal housing market is slowly climbing!
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJBest
My parent's home [NJ?] is now above (not by much) what it was pre-bubble burst. That didn't take long.
Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S
San Fran is not a typical market... Check that same story in Vegas? Phoenix? Florida?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wartrace
... Looking just at the Nashville market ...
... We are going to see median household decline in the next couple of decades; how can that help housing values?
Why do I say we will see a decline? Technology reducing the labor requirements and outsourcing of labor intensive production to the third world.
Yes, the highly skilled and trained worker will likely see wages increase however housing values depend on the macro-labor market.
If anyone expects a housing recovery with the growth in part time service sector jobs or the "new normal" 8 to 12 dollar an hour factory work they are not thinking right.
It's highly possible that, on average across the US over the past 10 and into the next 10-20, real wages have stagnated and will stagnate or have been/will be in relative, even absolute, decline, and that, on average, housing prices across the US are reflecting and will reflect that.
Real estate values reflect, or should reflect, and in the long run do reflect, the relative competitiveness of a local, maybe regional, population, therefore at the same time it is also highly possible that certain real estate markets across the US will consistently maintain and increase in value, while others will stagnate, due to relative differences in global competitiveness.
Hence, it is not surprising that markets like Seattle, San Francisco, southern California, NJ (probably those municipalities and counties closest to NYC), NYC, and even the best neighborhoods of cities like Miami have already recovered, will maintain, and even increase in value, while others like Memphis, perhaps, will continue to languish.
This despite policymakers cockamamie attempts to level an entire continent with cockamamie monetary and credit policies, the results of which we have already suffered through.
I can tell you that in Miami, the city that I know best, the dynamic changes from zip code to zip code, some neighborhoods still in decline, others treading water, while a few have already recovered and still feature a shortage of adequate and quality housing for highly competitive potential buyers.
And of course there is also commercial real estate, and farmland whose prices up to 3-6 months ago have been at all-time highs.
Now that 500K house is selling for 450K and it is the new norm.
And even that doesn't mean the bottom. People grabbing "bargains" today may well be underwater in a year or two. There is nothing to make the price of a house go up. No jobs, no recovery.
Historically median home values have been near 2.5X median household income. Looking just at the Nashville market with median home values at 160,000 and median household income at 48,500 you can see housing is overvalued considerably.
We are going to see median household decline in the next couple of decades; how can that help housing values?
Why do I say we will see a decline? Technology reducing the labor requirements and outsourcing of labor intensive production to the third world.
Yes, the highly skilled and trained worker will likely see wages increase however housing values depend on the macro-labor market.
If anyone expects a housing recovery with the growth in part time service sector jobs or the "new normal" 8 to 12 dollar an hour factory work they are not thinking right.
You see things clearly. However, don't expect wages to go up for even skilled and trained workers.
It won't be a collapse. It will put additional kinks into an already challenged market.
However, looking down the road, the real challenge comes in another ten-fifteen years when the Baby Boomers begin to reach 80. Suddenly, those Baby Boomers will either be downsizing or moving into retirement communities, and there simply won't be enough people in succeeding generations to absorb the inventory.
We are still in a state of collapse in many parts of the country. In the past few years, the Fed has given and is still giving low-money down mortgages to millions of people, while the markets they buy in are still falling fast. So they are loading people into homes while the knife is still falling. So, many of these folks find themselves immediately upside-down. That, coupled with having little skin-in-the-game and being folks who probably should not have purchased a home in the first place, has lead a couple million of these new homebuyers to be behind in their mortgages already. So there is another bust coming with resulting foreclosures that will be added to that large "shadow inventory" pipeline.
As long as that shadow inventory is in the millions of homes, we can't expect any recovery in many areas.
San Fran is not a typical market... Check that same story in Vegas? Phoenix? Florida?
All 3 markets are seeing the same story over the last few months. Very low inventory, multiple offers, sales above list price, cash offers winning most bids, etc. Not quite up 11-15%, but definitely up and could eventually get to double digit percentage gains before it levels off a bit.
I dont see any collapses in major metro areas. In Chicago rents are getting very expensive, so as long as you like the area, have a large diverse economy, why not buy? Im about to close on a house I plan on living in for 7-10 years. I'm buying at the appraised amount and not expecting a huge profit in 10 years and wouldnt be upset.
I personally would not purchase a house that was not near a large metro with access to public transportation. I dont want to be reliant on one industry or gas prices.
Not quite up 11-15%, but definitely up and could eventually get to double digit percentage gains before it levels off a bit.
Are you measuring that in $ per sq ft -- like the article?
Or just by average or median selling prices?
Just curious -- not trying to debate observations or anything.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
