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Thread summary:

Real estate: home sales, market, investment, mortgage,

 
Old 10-24-2007, 11:28 PM
 
30 posts, read 80,860 times
Reputation: 12

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HousingPANIC: The Housing Bubble and Crash Blog with an Attitude Problem: FLASH: Used home sales crash 29% versus last month, and 23% versus last year. Yet the lazy and corrupt MSM reports sales down only 8%

"nobody in the MSM bothered to check the numbers or question the NAR spin. Nope, they just reported sales down 8%, and made that sound bad enough, but if they had reported the REAL numbers - down 29% versus last month and 23% versus last year, now THAT would have really freaked people out. Of course, the MSM is too stupid to realize that the NAR goes with the "annualized" number because that takes longer to crash.

Do your own search - good luck finding any report that shows the -23% or -29% true numbers. And why won't you find it? Because the NAR didn't report it in their PR, so nothing to copy and paste for the lazy MSM.

Here's the simple numbers from the NAR:

Sept 2007: 409,000 sales (down 29% versus last month, down 23% versus last year)
August 2007: 575,000 sales
Sept 2006: 529,000 sales
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Old 10-25-2007, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Grand Rapids Metro
8,884 posts, read 18,970,447 times
Reputation: 3911
Some of these bloggers (not you midlander) need to get over themselves. I detest spin as much as the next guy, but he didn't actually read the report that he is railing about. That 8% drop in September is the "seasonally adjusted" annual sales volume number decrease. Because there are drops and spikes from month to month for any year for real estate transactions, they are "seasonally adjusted" to provide a more accurate picture of where the number is trending.

http://realtor.org/research.nsf/File.../EHSreport.xls

A more interesting set of charts are these going all the way back to 2004 (seasonally adjusted). It obviously shows quite a drop from the peak in June 2005:

US Existing Home Sales-STATS (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a3c3a92e-ed09-4a00-979c-0c744af820b1 - broken link)

Last edited by magellan; 10-25-2007 at 07:34 AM..
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Old 10-25-2007, 11:35 AM
 
376 posts, read 1,448,161 times
Reputation: 163
All real estate is local and what is published should be looked as an indicator only. If you are interested in buying and/or selling a home then it is best to look at the specific data related to the neighborhood you want to live in.
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Old 10-25-2007, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Burlington VT
1,405 posts, read 4,623,650 times
Reputation: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by kturbe View Post
All real estate is local and what is published should be looked as an indicator only. If you are interested in buying and/or selling a home then it is best to look at the specific data related to the neighborhood you want to live in.
Truer words were never ...typed.

An awful lot of people discuss "The Real Estate Market" as though the national market in the aggregate had a great deal of meaning for most people. Which is a bit puzzling, because few of us own RE as an investment which is effected by the national market in the aggregate. I'm simply suggesting that for individuals, the specific location of one's properties is what counts - not "The Real Estate Market" as a national thing.

Now, if I were an institutional investor, not knowing exactly how much of my portfolio was dependent on risky mortgage paper, on which not nearly enough due dilligence was performed, that would be another story entirely...
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Old 10-25-2007, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Burlington VT
1,405 posts, read 4,623,650 times
Reputation: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by magellan View Post
Some of these bloggers (not you midlander) need to get over themselves. I detest spin as much as the next guy, but he didn't actually read the report that he is railing about. That 8% drop in September is the "seasonally adjusted" annual sales volume number decrease. Because there are drops and spikes from month to month for any year for real estate transactions, they are "seasonally adjusted" to provide a more accurate picture of where the number is trending.

http://realtor.org/research.nsf/File.../EHSreport.xls

A more interesting set of charts are these going all the way back to 2004 (seasonally adjusted). It obviously shows quite a drop from the peak in June 2005:

US Existing Home Sales-STATS (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a3c3a92e-ed09-4a00-979c-0c744af820b1 - broken link)
Again - where's the specificity in the "blogger's" writing? It doesn't take a lot of thought to blast "the MSM". Calling "the MSM" "lazy" is not only obviously true (as far as it goes), but completely ignores the thoroughly reported and researched stories which have been predicting just what we're seeing now...for several years. The "blogger" might want to pick up a Wall Street Journal or a New York Times.
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Old 10-25-2007, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,217,955 times
Reputation: 1716
Default strap in

Quote:
Originally Posted by kturbe View Post
All real estate is local and what is published should be looked as an indicator only. If you are interested in buying and/or selling a home then it is best to look at the specific data related to the neighborhood you want to live in.

You are right if your talking a rational person.
Unfortunately people have not been rational about real estate since 2001. Though I believe some areas will not be effected by the national housing slump. I also believe that most local areas in the end will be by the mentality of "I don't want to catch a falling knife."
Basically it a roller coaster. We had raise really high like toping a roller coaster and now it time to take that deep ride down with a few twist and turn thrown in just to make things interesting.
So strap in it going to be a fun ride for the next couple of years.


YouTube - Real Estate Prices
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