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Old 11-28-2007, 08:37 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,678,645 times
Reputation: 3722

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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Phoenix means the city of Phoenix. You need the area statistics which are available at...

ARMLS

Las Vegas inventories are clearly decreasing as well though I would put little stock in small decreases unless they last past spring. .
BINGO! Long term trends really matter! Not a dead cat bounce.


Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Phoenix sales are well down though they appear relatively better than Las Vegas.
Oct '07 YOY from Oct '06 in Phoenix, sales are down approx 40-45% for all units per the MLS report attached......scary...
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Old 11-28-2007, 10:10 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
BINGO! Long term trends really matter! Not a dead cat bounce.
A normal yearly variation is not a dead cat bounce.



Quote:
Oct '07 YOY from Oct '06 in Phoenix, sales are down approx 40-45% for all units per the MLS report attached......scary...

Uhhh this is not new news. It has been in roughly this shape for well over a year in Phoenix and longer than that in Las Vegas.

As Eric Y points out there are a least some indications of bottoming.

I disagree a bit with Eric in that there is another force in play. The banks are offering very deep discounts on Repos and perhaps, some shorts. These constitute a little less than 20% of the sales but virtually all the drop in median price. So we got two price points...the banks and everyone else...and everyone else is still selling over 80% of the houses.

Note also that the banks are not discounting nearly as heavily on the more expensive houses. This is all going on below 300K. Bank pricing is far less agressive as you get to the big homes. Next time I do it I will run an average as well as the median of the REPOs. Bet it is way low though.

I think we may even come out of this with a two tier market. Those tracts heavily impacted by the foreclosure and shorts versus everything else.

And among the non bank properties it is very non-uniform. Look at north Summerlin and it is down about 10%. Looked at a large tract in the Lakes that was clearly down almost 25%. I would again expect some of this to hold even when the market reaches some normal footing. Both of these numbers are from the peak which was around the end of 2005.
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Old 11-29-2007, 05:10 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 1,168,793 times
Reputation: 216
No one is making up their numbers. Which numbers to emphasize is, however, a judgment call.

I would find those of you that like to call one group or another "liars" or any of the various but limited perjoratives you are capable of expressing a heck of a lot more readable if you would exercise a bit of intellectual honesty of your own...it is your own judgment that your foils are focusing on the wrong numbers, pure and simple. You are stating your personal opinion as to what numbers should be emphasized and which should be dismissed. You believe that your judgment is superior but you do not know that the future will prove you to be right.

Neither you nor I nor any other prognosticator knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. A degree of respect for the opinions of others does not imply agreement, it is rather a simple display of maturity in the writer and it sure adds civility to the discussion.
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Old 11-29-2007, 07:52 AM
 
354 posts, read 1,216,354 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Young View Post
No one is making up their numbers. Which numbers to emphasize is, however, a judgment call.

I would find those of you that like to call one group or another "liars" or any of the various but limited perjoratives you are capable of expressing a heck of a lot more readable if you would exercise a bit of intellectual honesty of your own...it is your own judgment that your foils are focusing on the wrong numbers, pure and simple. You are stating your personal opinion as to what numbers should be emphasized and which should be dismissed. You believe that your judgment is superior but you do not know that the future will prove you to be right.

Neither you nor I nor any other prognosticator knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. A degree of respect for the opinions of others does not imply agreement, it is rather a simple display of maturity in the writer and it sure adds civility to the discussion.
I am saying that most numbers and predictions put out by NAR are overly optimistic and verge on being "untrue". Here is what I am talking about: This Yun guy can never get it right. Yeah the mortgage market has improved!
What is this guy smoking!

WASHINGTON, D.C.- Conditions in the mortgage market are improving for consumers, which should help to release some pent-up demand in early 2008, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, notes that widening credit availability will help turn around home sales. “Conforming loans are abundantly available at historically favorable mortgage rates. Pricing has steadily improved on jumbo mortgages since the August credit crunch, and FHA loans are replacing subprime mortgages,” he said.

And this is quote is just over a month old. Oct 11, 2007 to be exact. So where is the truth in the above statement?
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Old 11-29-2007, 07:57 AM
 
9,848 posts, read 30,237,801 times
Reputation: 10516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Young View Post

Neither you nor I nor any other prognosticator knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. A degree of respect for the opinions of others does not imply agreement, it is rather a simple display of maturity in the writer and it sure adds civility to the discussion.
Very well said.
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:01 AM
 
135 posts, read 305,238 times
Reputation: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by ch123 View Post
I am saying that most numbers and predictions put out by NAR are overly optimistic and verge on being "untrue". Here is what I am talking about: This Yun guy can never get it right. Yeah the mortgage market has improved!
What is this guy smoking!

WASHINGTON, D.C.- Conditions in the mortgage market are improving for consumers, which should help to release some pent-up demand in early 2008, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, notes that widening credit availability will help turn around home sales. “Conforming loans are abundantly available at historically favorable mortgage rates. Pricing has steadily improved on jumbo mortgages since the August credit crunch, and FHA loans are replacing subprime mortgages,” he said.

And this is quote is just over a month old. Oct 11, 2007 to be exact. So where is the truth in the above statement?
Moderator cut: unsubstantiated allegation While economists are more academic, I would take their unbiased word any day of the week and twice on Sundays over someone from a powerful lobbying group. Yun sees a potential dead cat bounce in the mortgage market as a sign of recovery.

People looked to their home as anything but a home in the past few years. The Wall Street Journal story about a woman taking out a half a million dollars of her "equity" over a 10 year period (raising mortgage from 100K to 600K) and spending every penny of it just shows the craziness of the matter. Sellers refuse to sell below a certain price often because they cannot afford to. Unfortunately, it just doesn't work that way. There are some sellers who aren't upside down, and those who are in that category and are rational will sell their homes in this market.

I do feel badly for realtors nowadays having to deal with such a variety of irrational behavior from their clients. The good part is that those sellers who are misbehaving can be told to pound sand, as there will be no shortage of potential customers for realtors.

Last edited by Cornerguy1; 12-02-2007 at 03:50 AM..
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 1,168,793 times
Reputation: 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by ch123 View Post
I am saying that most numbers and predictions put out by NAR are overly optimistic and verge on being "untrue". Here is what I am talking about: This Yun guy can never get it right. Yeah the mortgage market has improved!
What is this guy smoking!

WASHINGTON, D.C.- Conditions in the mortgage market are improving for consumers, which should help to release some pent-up demand in early 2008, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, notes that widening credit availability will help turn around home sales. “Conforming loans are abundantly available at historically favorable mortgage rates. Pricing has steadily improved on jumbo mortgages since the August credit crunch, and FHA loans are replacing subprime mortgages,” he said.

And this is quote is just over a month old. Oct 11, 2007 to be exact. So where is the truth in the above statement?
“Conforming loans are abundantly available" - No problem with this. Any loan that meets the guidelines to be purchased by Fannie is a slam dunk these days.

"at historically favorable mortgage rates." - We're within a percentage point and a half of the lowest rates since the 60's...historically, that does seem favorable, doesn't it?

"Pricing has steadily improved on jumbo mortgages since the August credit crunch" - In August, rates on some jumbos were at a 3-point spread over conforming...most lenders are back to a point or a point and a half. This statement is absolutely true.

"and FHA loans are replacing subprime mortgages” - Where is the falsehood here? Since August, subprimes have been reduced to what - 5% of the mortgage market? Have FHA loans not substantially increased their percentage of total loans during the same time frame?

There is nothing false in the quote you're citing - they are all facts. What you are objecting to is that Yun has made a judgment that these are the relevant facts to emphasize. Of course the mortgage market has improved since August...it was practically shut down three months ago. What you disagree with is whether the improvement since August is relevant, not the fact itself.

You obviously do not agree with Yun's view that this fact or that fact are relevant. I presume that you would prefer that Yun cite the Case-Shiller Index, or the Year-Over-Year inventory numbers (but you wouldn't agree with an emphasis of the Month-Over-Month inventory numbers because they don't further your viewpoint).

I don't think you've invalidated my point - NAR does put out facts. What you disagree with is the judgment decision as to which facts are seen as important and which ones are seen as less so.

By the way, while I follow Shiller's commentary and will be the first to acknowledge that he was prescient in his general call to close positions in the stock market of 2000, I am also aware that he completely failed to foresee the boom that followed the bust...the S&P went from 800 to 1600 between the end of '02 until last month. If you blindly followed Shiller, I can only hope that you missed a 100% move. If you stayed short, you were wiped out long ago.

Further, if you think Shiller - or anyone else for that matter - doesn't have a vested interest somewhere - think again. In Shiller's case, he's far from being some doddering academic hunching over his spreadsheets till the wee hours and planning the lesson for his 9:00 AM class. If he's ever able to get some volume going on that futures pit he's got going on the CME, he'll be making millions a month - he receives a royalty on every transaction. You better believe he wants every one to follow the Case-Shiller Index. He's as vested as they get.

Last edited by Eric Young; 11-29-2007 at 08:39 AM..
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:36 AM
 
354 posts, read 1,216,354 times
Reputation: 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Young View Post
No one is making up their numbers. Which numbers to emphasize is, however, a judgment call.

Neither you nor I nor any other prognosticator knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. A degree of respect for the opinions of others does not imply agreement, it is rather a simple display of maturity in the writer and it sure adds civility to the discussion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy View Post
Very well said.
Exactly. So what gives the NAR the right to put out forecast and predictions that don't even come close to to the truth.
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:49 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by ch123 View Post
Exactly. So what gives the NAR the right to put out forecast and predictions that don't even come close to to the truth.
NAR posted that mortgages things are better than they were...you hold that the should have added "but still awful". That is simply an attempt to slant the discussion in a different direction. It is no better and no worse than the NAR view.
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Old 11-29-2007, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 1,168,793 times
Reputation: 216
I haven't found my conversation with you on this thread to be at all unreasonable.


The market is bad right now - that's certainly not news to anyone in my profession. OleCapt and I have had vigorous - sometimes heated - debates about how long it will stay this way and what are likely scenarios for how it will play out. But at the end of the day, we're both interested in the future and it is an intellectually honest debate about an industry we both truly care about. I regularly post my personal observations as well as my projections and my support for those projections on this site. Yet I rarely if ever read anything posted by a non-professional that displays any seriousness about the plight of millions of Amercians. Far more often than I care to recount, what I hear from a certain limited group of posters is a cackling glee at the misfortune of others with a citation of a talking head that made his way onto the air for twenty seconds on CNBC to provide a bit of cover for the writer's true agenda.

Last edited by Cornerguy1; 12-02-2007 at 03:45 AM.. Reason: off topic material/orphaned content
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