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I've gotten to the point where I'm financially ready to jump into the real estate market. Obviously its a questionable time for buyers - things seem overpriced, especially where I live in Los Angeles. I'm waiting at the moment to see where the markets go but I'm trying to find reliable sources to watch the movements.
I'm looking at Trulia's site to look at listing price changes and levels of inventory and other random googled sites.
According to most mainstream reports, I've heard very little negative sentiment; other than the occasional story about how housing is really getting overheated and how its expected to cool off but values are expected to continue to rise more slowly for the foreseeable future.
Then I come across other, seemingly reliable information, about how much downturn there has been with the markets. One example is a site called RealtyTrac. The most recent data on their site for Los Angeles:
"Home sales for August 2015 were down 63% compared with the previous month, and down 98% compared with a year ago. The median sales price of a non-distressed home was $648,000."
A 63% drop in sales from the previous month; and a 98% drop from the previous year. These seem quite significant to me yet I hear nothing in mainstream media about it. Why is that? Is the information unreliable? Is there pressure to keep the info hidden from the public from people who would lose money when the downturn hits? Or maybe I'm not interpreting it correctly - is the volume not of significance because of other factors?
If I had a nickel for everybody who predicted a housing crash that didn't happen and paid a dime for everybody who predicted one that did, I could afford a $648,000 house. Plus a boat.
I'd worry much more about how stable your own financial and geographic situation is.
Yea I'm not worried about my financial situation. Other than how much I'm throwing away on rent each month.
I guess I'm just confused why theres not a headline in the LA times about a 98% drop in housing sales from last year?
Some areas are "hot" others not. We're looking to buy. Right now lots of stuff is sitting in the areas I'm looking. Im coming up against more stubborn "my house is worth it dammit because it's mine" homeowner mentality who have no recent sales to support asking prices. Im talking 50-90k overpriced. Looked at one house that had 40k drop. Still 45k over nearest comp. house had no upgrades. I put a bid in. Homeowner declined. It's been listed for 5 months BEFORE my bid and sitting for 4 months AFTER my bid. Price is 20k higher than my bid. I was willing to go up 10k from my initial offer. Guy wasn't willing to negotiate and was unrealistic on the true value of his house. Last time I got a MLS update it was on there as a house I may be interested in. And it's still for sale.
Some areas are "hot" others not. We're looking to buy. Right now lots of stuff is sitting in the areas I'm looking. Im coming up against more stubborn "my house is worth it dammit because it's mine" homeowner mentality who have no recent sales to support asking prices. Im talking 50-90k overpriced. Looked at one house that had 40k drop. Still 45k over nearest comp. house had no upgrades. I put a bid in. Homeowner declined. It's been listed for 5 months BEFORE my bid and sitting for 4 months AFTER my bid. Price is 20k higher than my bid. I was willing to go up 10k from my initial offer. Guy wasn't willing to negotiate and was unrealistic on the true value of his house. Last time I got a MLS update it was on there as a house I may be interested in. And it's still for sale.
I'm looking in the Northeast area, but also keeping my eye on parts of the valley and near downtown. Thankfully I'm not interested in the Westside.
I've seen a lot of mixed signals - a lot of houses still getting over asking, and then some having multiple prize reductions and even some selling for 100k under asking. Super confusing for someone looking to jump in.
this is why we suggest you find a qualified, competent, experienced (15+ years of you ask me) agent locally. I say 15+ years because that means they will have experienced the last "run-up", and the housing crisis.
RealtyTrac is an actual site, and it's info should be correct. However, since (in my experience) it deals primarily with distressed sales .... are you sure the 98% stat wasn't about those type of sales?
RealtyTrac is an actual site, and it's info should be correct. However, since (in my experience) it deals primarily with distressed sales .... are you sure the 98% stat wasn't about those type of sales?
It just says 'housing sales' - no distinction from distressed homes vs. others.
Another site giving similar data is movoto - which I'm taking with a grain of salt because it seems to not include as many listings as say redfin or trulia. But its giving similar sales numbers; not only for August but also September and October.
I realize timing the market, whether its housing or stocks, is pretty much impossible but I'm seeing a lot negative signs starting. Not only in the LA real estate but also NYC and San Francisco. And I know sitting on the sidelines too long will make you miss the gains but I don't want to jump in right before the 'pop'.
Since you work in real estate can you briefly describe how you assess market health - what sources and statistics are you looking at?
Dear Parker,
1. You cannot time the market.
2. All real estate is local and much of the data are not.
3. No one can predict the future. Well, except for gypsy fortune tellers.
You buy because:
1. You want/need to own.
2. You can afford it.
3. You plan to stay in that house for 7+ years.
this is why we suggest you find a qualified, competent, experienced (15+ years of you ask me) agent locally. I say 15+ years because that means they will have experienced the last "run-up", and the housing crisis.
I'm sure they know lots and lots, but it's hard to get around the fact that you're asking "should I buy a house" to a guy who only gets paid if you do buy a house.
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