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CJ I'm surprised at you, you usually don't miss much. The story says homeowners, not home sellers. the rest of your post goes on to scold us in the industry and home sellers.
So maybe the majority of homeowners don't spend much time thinking about the market value of their homes. If 5% (I have no idea of the number) of the homes in the US are for sale at the moment, that means 95% aren't for sale and if they aren't for sale, who cares what their value is?
Again the Case/Schiller Index! quote "showed about an 8% drop in home values in November compared to a year earlier, the worst on record." Well Duh, the case Schiller Index is only 8 years old!
This article looks a lot like a repackage of the Business Week article.
Dmenscha, read the article closely.
Despite numerous reports showing home values in historic decline, more than three out of four homeowners believe their own home has not lost value in the past year, according to an online survey.
They specifically asked "in the past year". That was the question. 3 out of 4 didn't believe the value dropped in the past year.
Also, sellers are homeowners, its one in the same.
I am serious. I don't believe I can list the top agent in the country (4 of the last 5 years) here as that would be considered advertising. Send me a DM and I'll tell you who it is and you can talk to him for yourself. He has posted on these forums that others have asked him how the slump has affected him and he has said, repeatedly, that were it not for the news, he wouldn't know it existed.
One agent out of the entire country isn't affected, which is nice for him I guess. That's great, but it doesn't say anything about there being or not being a real estate downturn. If he's not up on the stats to know that there is a problem (even if it hasn't hit him yet) I don't think he's going to stay on the top for long.
That's even assuming he's honest. He's in sales, so he's probably just talking his book. The local agents here like to try that as well, but even they are moving towards "not all neighborhoods are bad".
One agent out of the entire country isn't affected, which is nice for him I guess. That's great, but it doesn't say anything about there being or not being a real estate downturn. If he's not up on the stats to know that there is a problem (even if it hasn't hit him yet) I don't think he's going to stay on the top for long.
That's even assuming he's honest. He's in sales, so he's probably just talking his book. The local agents here like to try that as well, but even they are moving towards "not all neighborhoods are bad".
I find it very interesting that any time something is said about an agent that someone disagrees with they call the agent dishonest because he's in sales.
The one agent that was mentioned was just the one of the top agents. There are many more of those top agents that are very close to that production.
There are a lot of sales being made. And they are being made by the strong agents. Those who don't know how to market, and don't know much about real estate other than what was taught them in the licensing class are dropping out. They are the ones who are willing to cut their fees just to get a listing, and those are the ones who will not get the home sold because they listed it too high just to get the listing. They cannot afford to market and will eventually not be able to pay their fees to their brokers. That is what happened to that type agent at Remax 2000. Those agents were not productive and couldn't pay their bills.
There are also a lot of sales being made that never hit the mls so they are not recorded. Granted that the homes are not listed as inventory either, but many of these homes are getting sold.
There is a large contingent of new investors in the market today. I attend the AZREIA meetings and also take investor classes so I can meet investors who may some day become my client. It also helps me to keep up on what is happening in various segments of the industry so that I know from a "street" perspective what's going on in the market place. I know what many of the investors are looking for and how they operate.
Tons of them are entering the foreclosure market. Depending on their personality they will chase the Pre foreclosure, the foreclosure auctions, or the post foreclosure (REO) market. They are typically looking to buy at 30% below current market, and some are looking at 40%. Most of the ones that I've talked to have done their homework. They have a good handle on the market. They study; do research; attend classes; and network. These people are from all walks of life, and highly intelligent. Some have a real estate license that they keep inactive so they don't have the same legal issues as an active agent does.
These are not the lowballers who will go to a listed home and try to steal it at 30% to 40% below market as many are attempting. It doesn't take much skill, knowledge or work to find an agent willing to go lowballing with them.
If these investors thought they could steal houses from the regular homeowner, with no investment of time and money for education; and if they thought the market was all doom and gloom, then why would they be going after the foreclosure market when it would be so much less work going after the listed homes
It is not just the realtors who believe that we need to work with "today's current market value". It is also the intelligent investor.
It is not just the realtors who think that the negativity in the press is frightening the general buying public. The general public that I talk to are also saying that.
One investor I spoke with yesterday in a foreclosure class has an MBA; owns his own company; has a balanced stock portfolio; has two investment properties; and has a real estate investment business plan with a very specific criteria for his real estate investment homes.
He takes investment classes every Saturday and in the evenings during the week, and is extremely knowledgeable about real estate and real estate investing.
He also reads everything he can on real estate including the media reports, which he feels is incredibly slanted toward a doom and gloom picture for the purpose of selling the articles.
He said those articles actually help him because he can get his investment portfolio together while the major public is selling, and then he can sell at a profit after the public starts buying again.
I find it very interesting that any time something is said about an agent that someone disagrees with they call the agent dishonest because he's in sales.
I'm just going by experience here. If you can base a refutation of an entire industry of data on one top seller, why can't I generalize from a way too small sample size as well? It seems only fair.
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The one agent that was mentioned was just the one of the top agents. There are many more of those top agents that are very close to that production.
Let's see the data. How are they doing compared to, say, 2005 or 2006?
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There are a lot of sales being made. And they are being made by the strong agents.
Depends on how you define "a lot". There may be "a lot" of sales, but there are also "a lot" less than the last few years. This is way too vague to be useful, especially when we have hard data to work from instead.
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There are also a lot of sales being made that never hit the mls so they are not recorded. Granted that the homes are not listed as inventory either, but many of these homes are getting sold.
Let see some stats. How many of these sales are being made, compared to the number of overall sales.
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There is a large contingent of new investors in the market today. I attend the AZREIA meetings and also take investor classes so I can meet investors who may some day become my client. It also helps me to keep up on what is happening in various segments of the industry so that I know from a "street" perspective what's going on in the market place. I know what many of the investors are looking for and how they operate.
So far the actions of these investors isn't showing up in sales data. We'll have to see what happens if and when they do.
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He said those articles actually help him because he can get his investment portfolio together while the major public is selling, and then he can sell at a profit after the public starts buying again.
Again, personal stories are interesting, but the plural of "personal story" is not data. It's just hearsay. It really doesn't matter if there are a few investors buying foreclosures, or if the top 10% of agents are doing OK. The very fact that there are enough foreclosures to make it worth while to specialize in them is a bad sign for the market ... as is the fact that you have to concentrate on the best 10% of agents to find positive news.
And again, no one is posting any sort of stats which contradict the national and local trends of much higher inventory, much lower sales, and declining prices. If the best you can do is say that the top agent in the country is still doing well, in the context of all the real data out there, that's not exactly reassuring.
Again, personal stories are interesting, but the plural of "personal story" is not data. It's just hearsay.
And again, no one is posting any sort of stats which contradict the national and local trends of much higher inventory, much lower sales, and declining prices. If the best you can do is say that the top agent in the country is still doing well, in the context of all the real data out there, that's not exactly reassuring.
Heh. I heard some one call that Anecdata. As in using anecdotes in place of statistics or facts. I find the term to be apt.
KC I'm not basing an industry on one top seller. What you seem to be wanting to hear is that all realtors are hungry and going out of business, and that just isn't the case. I'm doing well and I know many others who are doing well in this market. For the successful realtor it's knowing the market, knowing how to market, and refusing the listings that want higher than current market value, and refusing to lower the fee. The agents who do that will succeed because there listings will sell; their reputations will stay in tact and they will earn what they are worth.
My point about the foreclosure investors was not to say that the market is not experiencing a correction. I've never said that. I'm saying that there are people out there who are recognizing that there are bargains and they are taking advantage of that while many regular buyers are being scared off.
I'm not trying to reassure you about anything. I'm telling what I see, and it's more important to me that I see and understand what's going on so I can help my clients than it is for me to assure you about anything.
I know the market is in a decline, and so does every other realtor on this board, and I've never heard one say it isn't. What I don't agree with is the generalization of the entire country when using specific areas that have been hit particularly hard.
I also disagree with the theory that all sellers should immediately "get realistic" as the saying goes, and price their homes back at the 2000 level. It is not realistic to expect that and it is not going to happen. I don't know if prices will ever get back to those levels because I don't have a crystal ball. But I doubt they will.
If you want to buy GM stock at the price it was in 2000, maybe hypothetically it was 30 then and today it's 60. You can put your standing order in but it won't get filled. You'll wait until the asking price gets down to 30, if it ever does.
As realtors we must deal with today's market. We can't tell sellers to price at 2000 levels. We must work to sell homes at the current market value. In fact it would not only be irresponsible but a violation of our fiduciary duty to a seller to convince them they should price their home at a level far below the current market value of today. And the seller could have a good basis for a law suit against us.
So for buyers who want to buy at a 2000 level, just sit back and wait. But if you want to buy today, then be prepared to pay today's prices.
I'm sitting an open house today, and earlier a cocky buyer came in and asked how much they're asking for this house. I said $325. He said that's way too much. I said what do you think the house is worth. He said down in the $200's. I asked him how he based his opinion of the value. He said because the market's going down.
Then he said, they've never done anything to this house (after he had been through every room.) I said well, the outside was painted, the inside was painted, and there are all new carpets, and new vinly on the kitchen floor. He said VINYL!!! I wouldn't want vinyl. So I told him that if the owner had put in tile it might have not been the type of tile that you would like, so they elected to stay with the vinyl, which actually looks like tile. Some people, like yourself, never noticed that it was vinyl.
I asked him again to tell me what he feels the value is, because he only said in the $200's without giving a number. He said, in the low 200's. So I said would you like to make an offer for the home in the low $200's. He said nah they probably wouldn't accept it. Well I wonder why not
Was this a real buyer? Of course not. He was an antagonist who didn't know anything about the market or the value or the properties. He had no idea of what this house is worth. He just threw out a useless 100k range.
This is a 40+ age community and most of the homes that are for sale here are owned outright by the owners, and they don't have to worry about going upside down. They can rent the homes and wait it out, and many will.
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
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CJ, please don't patronize me about reading carefully, I'm able to do so quite well. My home isn't for sale, does that make me a seller? You say that sellers and owners are "one in the same".
I'd agree that you have to own a home to be a home seller, but the article specifically mentioned that the survey asked Owners (not specifically sellers) about the value of their homes. Included in the 1619 people polled, I'm sure some of them had their home for sale.
I'll stand by my original statements. May I be so bold as to suggest that your filter on the housing market caused you to miss the difference between owners and sellers?
I definitely enjoy reading your posts, but I think you missed this one.
CJ, please don't patronize me about reading carefully, I'm able to do so quite well. My home isn't for sale, does that make me a seller? You say that sellers and owners are "one in the same".
I'd agree that you have to own a home to be a home seller, but the article specifically mentioned that the survey asked Owners (not specifically sellers) about the value of their homes. Included in the 1619 people polled, I'm sure some of them had their home for sale.
I'll stand by my original statements. May I be so bold as to suggest that your filter on the housing market caused you to miss the difference between owners and sellers?
I definitely enjoy reading your posts, but I think you missed this one.
You responded to my OP in a condescending way, now your saying "don't patronize me?" C'mon....
Again, this was a random survey. Some could be sellers and some could be buyers, some could be sitting tight. The question specifically was "do you think the value of your house has gone down in the past year?"
Pretty simple question. Don'tcha think?
Judging by the responses, people don't have their finger on the pulse of the market....
Whatever you want to believe, go right ahead. I think its pretty obvious many sellers are still in denial.
I also disagree with the theory that all sellers should immediately "get realistic" as the saying goes, and price their homes back at the 2000 level. It is not realistic to expect that and it is not going to happen. I don't know if prices will ever get back to those levels because I don't have a crystal ball. But I doubt they will.
Bill, no one said "to get back to 2000 levels".
Its about getting back or reasonably close to historical levels w/an appreciation close or a little above the inflation rate. Many markets started overappreciating after 2000. Some started after '03. I believe Phoenix (your market) started overheating in '03.
Your market is on its way back I can assure you...what would you guess your at right now? '04-05? You still have a LONG way to go w/your record amounts of inventory, record amounts of foreclosures and limited buyers...
Keep thinking you don't know which way the market will go. I told you this months ago and I'll keep telling you again. You have a long way to go....
This is HEALTHY. Whether you agree w/it or not.
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The story says homeowners, not home sellers. the rest of your post goes on to scold us in the industry and home sellers.
