Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
But CJ, you forget that neither you nor I were on this forum in 2005, how do you know what I was saying?
I'm not blaming the media for what happened. I blame greedy buyers and greedy mortgage companies. What I'm saying is that the press never reports the positive because positive news in the American public eyes does not help their ratings. They always exacerbate the issues.
We're in agreement.
What you want does not mean that is what the market wants, nor what will happen. What I'm saying is that it is the MARKET that will determine the price of homes. I'm not saying that prices should not decline, nor that they should increase. Again I'm saying it is up to the market. And I have to work with the "current" market. Just as I cannot work with yesterdays market, I cannot work with tomorrow's market today.
The market will be affected by many factors:
Government programs
Lobbying by the NAR, which has helped get some of the programs that should help some avoid foreclosure, and help others to buy homes.
Interest rates
Availability of mortgage money
New jobs
New industry
Relocations
Foreign buyers
Building permits
Supply
Demand
Buyer perception of the market
Seller perception of the market
Buyer urgency
Seller urgency
Maybe I missed a few factors, but that is part of what is going to help determine the market prices in various pockets around the country.
Perhaps the media should make balanced reports instead of slanting the issue toward the negative.
Here is the other side of that 77 out of 150 cities declined report:
Home Prices up in Half of Markets
Roughly half of metropolitan areas continued to show rising home prices in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the latest quarterly survey by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
Charles Gibson on ABC made that 77/150 report, but only focused on the negative. Would it not be best for the general public to hear the full story? Like what did the other 73 areas do?
So I'm going to start a new thread with the title:
73 out or 150 metropolitan statistical areas show increases.
Bill, maybe their not reporting it because according to their charts, 94% of these markets declined from Q3 to Q4. (10 out of 150 increased only.)
Still, the NAR is using "median" prices also (very unreliable) in terms of housing data.
When I see accurate reports in headlines about how much inventory is out there along w/# of units sold, I'll believe it a little more.
I've been saying since I started posting here the market will get worse. Reason is there is a limited amount of buyers for the record amounts of inventory. Until affordability and inventory gets somewhat closer to historicals, you'll continue to have a downward trend overall. Yes, you'll have your pocket areas w/zero people (like Yakima, WA or Cumberland WV) that buck the trend) but overall the trend will get worse. Not to difficult to see or comprehend.
Hi CJ, I'm just saying that there is nothing in a free market to say what a price of anything Should be. To argue that gasoline should cost $1.50 a gallon or $10.00 when it's over $3.00 is a nice intellectual exercise, but doesn't change the price at the pump.
I agree. Besides ... this article is totally unrealistic, at least where California home prices are concerned. $158K average price for a California house?
I think housing prices will obviously drop a lot but California prices haven't been down to $158K since 1988. It's pretty far fetched to think that prices would drop to '80s levels.
Even during the '90s housing crash, the lowest California housing prices got was $177K.
So ... I think this article is a little nuts. Yeah, we're in for a huge correction but, even in a realistically priced market ... there is still going to be some overall price appreciation.
I agree. Besides ... this article is totally unrealistic, at least where California home prices are concerned. $158K average price for a California house?
I think housing prices will obviously drop a lot but California prices haven't been down to $158K since 1988. It's pretty far fetched to think that prices would drop to '80s levels.
Even during the '90s housing crash, the lowest California housing prices got was $177K.
So ... I think this article is a little nuts. Yeah, we're in for a huge correction but, even in a realistically priced market ... there is still going to be some overall price appreciation.
No one is saying there isn't supposed to be price appreciation. There is.
The problem is when appreciation is not in step w/median income levels like many markets faced for the past 7 or so years.
It's totally unrealistic to expect the average California home price to go back to 1980's levels at $160K ... which is what this article is arguing.
Prices have and will fall back to more realistic levels but ... it's not going to be $160K for California.
$250-300K would be more realistic at normal appreciation rates if a bubble had never happened.
The days of $160K for an average California home are long gone ... bubble or not.
Did I ever say prices should go back to 80's levels? Or even 90's levels for that matter?
No, I said prices need to come back into reality in many, many markets. For example, Phoenix currently is at '05 levels w/normal appreciation rates. Getting better but a LONG way to go to erase the drunken appreciation levels....
I echo exactly what you said. Realistic levels (ie AFFORDABLE) @ normal appreciation rates.
Did I ever say prices should go back to 80's levels? Or even 90's levels for that matter?
No, I said prices need to come back into reality in many, many markets. For example, Phoenix currently is at '05 levels w/normal appreciation rates. Getting better but a LONG way to go to erase the drunken appreciation levels....(What is the 2008 level, by your estimation)
I echo exactly what you said. Realistic levels (ie AFFORDABLE) @ normal appreciation rates. (What is "normal appreciation")
We don't disagree....
I'm just curious since you oft quote "prices need to come back to reality" what is reality, to you?
For me this discussion is beginning to enter the same realm as the eternal question, "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound?"
By a similar (sort of) token, if comps "prove" that a house is worth, say, $200,000, and it's priced at $200,000, and while it's on the market for 6-12 months nobody offers more than $175,000, what is the house actually worth? If you priced an ounce of gold at $1500 when everybody else was selling it for $1000, what's your gold worth? OK, houses aren't precious metal. But the theory is the same. If you want to sell your house now, you have to price aggressively enough to get an offer and sell. Or, if you don't have to sell now, don't. Wait and see what happens in future. Will the prices go up? Down? Time will tell. How much time you wait, or don't wait, is your own decision.
Selling a home within commuting distance of Boston, I found out that what my house was "worth" to prospective buyers was not what the comps indicated it should be. Not when, as my RE agent informed me, some 25% of the inventory on the market (at that point, don't know about now) was foreclosures. I wanted to sell, so I priced to sell. If I'd wanted to hang onto the house as an investment, I'd still be hanging now and for some time to come, I think, because prices are still dropping in that area, and I'm seeing the lowest priced houses nearing 2001 levels now. MA has been in a downturn longer than CA, with no recovery yet.
IMO, arguing about what markets will or will not do over the coming year is rather pointless. Better to discuss and debate, then wait and see, and spread the "I told you so's" when the dust has settled. Get comfy, because it'll be awhile before a reliable number of 2008 stats are in....
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Get comfy, because it'll be awhile before a reliable number of 2008 stats are in....
