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'I would guess that most folks selling in a down market are also going to be buying in a down market, so it all works out in the end...'
Which is not very wise I would say. Catching a falling knife is not fun. I would sell now, rent and when values stabilize and bottom out, then buy. But I understand life goes on and all those warm and fuzzies 'Human Factors" always trump logical thinking right?
And God forbid I should rent. What will the family think!
Here you go:
* You bought in 2008. You _can_ afford your payment, so long as you keep your job. Your job is secure, as is your spouse's. So we'll just assume you can always pay your mortgage.
* You still paid non-bottom prices because you bought in 2008.
* By 2010 prices have come down another 20%. (Ignore anyone who lives in Bizarro World where prices never go down).
* At this point you start seeing some neighbors moving in paying 4/5 of what you did. It's a little annoying, but not terribly.
* By 2012-2013 real prices have come down a total of 35% and now are flat, matching inflation with maybe very tiny gains here and there.
* So you're 5-7 years into your ownership. The average time spent by most Americans in a home. You only put 20% down, so you're at best just around break even or a small loss if you sell today. You decide, "hey we can afford our mortgage payments, so we're not losing anything".
* But then you start realizing something. You have a lot less money than your neighbors all do, even though you make the same or even a bit more than them. Your kids go to school with the children of parents who are just like you except one thing: they don't pay as much of their monthly nut to their house. Instead, they buy their kids nicer clothes, safer cars, better educations, more culturally stimulating vacations, nicer colleges, and better futures. Meanwhile, you paid your bank a lot of extra interest, and you paid the previous owners a lot of extra gains. All those people are busy buying nice college educations for their kids too.
* You retire, owning your home, preaching to your kids how somehow your life's decisions were more "righteous" and "moral" than all these other terrible people who looked out for their own well being. It never dawns on you that perhaps you were the selfish one, putting your own impatient emotional need for a house above the future betterment of your family.
I definitely see your point but, what if you're bidding on a foreclosure at 50 percent below peak value? If you get it ... how much downside is there in a deal like that? Arguably ... not much. Odds are ... it is the bottom price.
That's all I'm doing ... bidding on foreclosures and short sales at cheap prices I'm comfortable with. If I don't get one, I'll just move on to another because I'm not going to overpay.
In the meantime, I'll be renting month to month until the right deal comes through.
No I'm not kidding. I'm not ignorant to the financial issues of today but to say everyone who buys this year is looking at a 20% loss is not a rational statement nor one to be take seriously. Is there and will there be losses this year? Without question. Will people who buy this year lose 20%? I highly doubt it unless they buy AND sell this year. Runing around screaming the sky is falling does no one any good, instead it makes the screamer look like a loon.
If you live in my region and you bought last year, you most likely have lost 20% already... This is according to the official real estate numbers. Why then is it so hard for you to believe that this trend could continue for another year?
I'm just trying to get a feel for the Real Estate Market this year and I'm looking for responses that are mainly BRIEF and to the POINT ! (I'm also kindly asking Realtors to NOT post in this thread please )
1) Please post if you are planning to SELL your home? When (spring, summer, fall, or currently listed)? And whether or not you will go with a Realtor or FSBO? Also let us know the city and state, if you feel comfortable doing so .
2) Next, please let us know if you are planning to BUY after you sell; prior to selling; or have no home to sell prior to buying? Will you use a Realtor to buy or go it alone? Again, where are you looking to buy (don't answer this if you do not want to )!
3) If you are selling and will not buy another home right away, WHY NOT ? (i.e. is all the MEDIA coverage affecting your buying decisions or has the Mortgage situation affected you negatively, etc.?)
Thanks in advance for your honest posts !! I'm betting that there are others that want to buy a home, but can't, due to factors other than the Media or waiting for prices to bottom out .
Here are my answers:
1) Selling - Spring - FSBO/Flat Fee - Boise, ID
2) Want to Buy, but uncertain if I will be able to find the right home, at the right price, at the right time once my home sells !!! Will look on my own and only use a Realtor if necessary.
3) Media coverage HAS NOT affected my decisions, but the changes in the Mortgage market definitely have !
On a final note, I could have sold my home last fall except for the domino effect of the 'buyers' not being able to sell their home first ! My theory is that there are still BUYERS out there , but if someone won't buy their home, then they can't buy my home either !!
So 2008 will be a VERY CHALLENGING year due to the DOMINO EFFECT and the MORTGAGE MESS (DEATMM ) in my very knowledgeable, but humble opinion !
1. Selling - Summer with Realtor Plymouth, MA
2. Buying with Realtor after sale of house - Norman, OK
3. We are aware of the mortgage situation, but moving to a place that has a lower cost of living is our goal.
If you live in my region and you bought last year, you most likely have lost 20% already... This is according to the official real estate numbers. Why then is it so hard for you to believe that this trend could continue for another year?
Again, it's not everyone or everywhere. If you bought last year you've lost or gained NOTHING until you sell it unless you try and use it as a piggy bank. 10 years from now the people that bought last year will most likely be fine if history repeats itself, if they're not then I guess most will be in the tank along with them no matter what they paid.
Originally Posted by jvazjr 'I would guess that most folks selling in a down market are also going to be buying in a down market, so it all works out in the end...'
I wish it were that easy.....we are selling in Houston at the moment due to a relocation for DH's job to.....drumroll......
Florida.
Begging for $80/sf for a custom home that we are selling, and keeling over at the price/sf numbers in Florida.
But with 4 kids in school--one in high school, moving repeatedly (or the potential to) as a result of renting and purchasing later is not an option.
same is true here ,Ms. Coach. Our market here is pretty stable, but there is more inventory and choice. Prices are holding steady. To get our place sold we feel like we may take off more than we'd like. However, where we wish to buy, in the same metro area, there is less inventory, prices have risen over last year. So we'll likely be paying more than we want. AGain, it is not the same EVERYWHERE!!!!!
Update: Listed home on 4-19-08, with a very experienced agent/top real estate firm in the Triangle..hopefully will get a buyer this time around. I am anxious to sell, although I love the house...it's way too far away from everything and living "out" here is not working for me. I pray a buyer comes along, if not Plan 2 kicks in.. good luck everyone
Quote:
Originally Posted by nynraleigh
Plan 1:
April/May 2008: Relist my 8 month old home in Knightdale NC.
Oct 2008: I will be settled into a new home/townhome closer to work. Morrisville, Durham, Western Raleigh (Brier Creek) areas of NC.
Plan 2:
Stay in home in 08 if market conditions are not favorable for a sale at (I don't mind breaking even to move closer) or above (perhaps +/- 5K) what I paid for the home in June 2007.
Assess market conditions and list home in Spring of 2009 and purchase a home/townhome by Fall of 2009.
I wish you all the best in your home sale/purchases this year
2) Want to Buy, but uncertain if I will be able to find the right home, at the right price, at the right time once my home sells !!! Will look on my own and only use a Realtor if necessary.
3) Media coverage HAS NOT affected my decisions, but the changes in the Mortgage market definitely have !
i am planning to buy a 5 acre lot and build in north tampa. i will be moving out there april 2009 and would like to have a lot beforehand. i am not building for investment purposes i just want to have the house that i want to live in for the next 15-life.
the mortgage crisis doesn't affect me because i am going to pay cash. i also intend building in stages as i earn.
economic conditions such as rising unemployment, tightening credit, massive debt and gigantic inventories are only going to get worse in my opinion. with this in my my offers have been extreme lowballs. the thing is that lately i have started getting 1 or 2 counters which wasn't the case in december. i have also realised that what i was offering a year ago would be snapped up in a heartbeat today.
the media has some bearing because they report what is going on in the market! some people like to call it doom and gloom reporting, i call it reality
1) Selling a house in the High Desert area of San Bernardino County, California. We don't owe much on it so, if we have to slash the price we can. We will be paying a realtor the full six percent because we want to move it. If for some reason the property doesn't move by the end of the year (although it should since we can price it at rock bottom comps if necessary) ... then we'll convert it to the rental.
2) Buying in Monterey County California. We're currently bidding on a short sale. If that deal falls through we'll rent month to month until we find the right deal. The foreclosures and short sales are the best deals so we'll keep bidding until the right property comes along. We're not using a realtor for our bids but, most of these properties do involve listing agents.
3) The media hasn't affected our decisions but, the pricing data did. Prices were falling so fast that we figured we better jump into the market and move now.
Last edited by sheri257; 05-04-2008 at 06:50 PM..
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! (I'm also kindly asking Realtors to NOT post in this thread please 
.
)!
! 
, but if someone won't buy their home, then they can't buy my home either 
Response to survey from Houston, TX
