Housing Values in line now?

[HappyTexan]

The problem is that we don't know when the bottom is really. The foreclosures we see today are from last summer as it takes about 9 months to get through the foreclosure process. The bulk of these subprimes were in 2005 with a 3 year ARM. That would mean resets throughout 2008. Now if these folks can't afford the reset and walk away add 9 months to foreclosure..or more from what I'm reading as there is now backlogs of foreclosures.

In my mind that puts bottom somewhere in 2009 or late 2008.

Anyone is free to post stats though to tell me I'm wrong. This is just me putting info from different articles together.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by CouponJack

Bill, I checked housingtracker.net which filters the phoenix area by SFH + Condos, and looks to me like inventory levels are still near record highs for the phoenix and surrounding areas.

For the reasons you give I guess we will agree to disagree. I strongly view your market as nowhere near the bottom as I've been saying for along time. The reasons are as follows:

Still record amounts of inventory
Lack of qualified buyers
Foreclosures/short sales will continue to drive down prices
More negative news coming out due to ARM's resetting
Historical pricing getting more realistic but nowhere near pre-peak
Lack of leadership at the NAR to address problems

We shall see.....

You asked for single family breakout. While it stands to reason that because the sfh's are the largest number in the group, that the numbers will be very close, I'll still post the last three months sfh for you.

The peak was in December at 18.8 months with av DOM at 97.
January was 14.6months at 92 DOM
February was 11.9 months at 91 DOM.

The Under Contract and Solds were both up in January and February. That is a seasonal trend, and it's good to see that the seasonal trend remained this year.

At the end of February there were 57,555 sfh on the mls.
This morning I see 56015.

While the Monthly Supply of Inventory (MSI) was reduced, the median price of the homes For Sale still declined in Dec, Jan and Feb from 244.0 to 228.9.

I like to watch the Under Contract (Pending) numbers. They are increasing, from Dec 2371, Jan 3200, and Feb 3886. Again this is seasonal and to me it's good that the seasonal trend is in place.

Make whatever forecast you care to from the stats.

The stats from this source are good because they are only 30 days old. I get a lot more stats from the investment organization I belong to, AZREIA, but they are two months behind. However, they have some great stats. I saw them at the meeting last night, and they have them on their web site a couple days later.

I use all the stats so that I can see the trends, and use the economic news so I can get a good idea for myself where I think the market is headed. That way I can have more information available for my clients.

These stats are for single family houses in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, so everyone can use to see what is happening in this local market.