Are we on the cusp of another real estate crash? (recommendation, foreclosure)
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Is there a market out there that isn't hot at the moment? (Besides rural areas with low demand)
We bought in Nov. and my husband put an above-asking offer in on the spot. I didn't even see our new house until we closed and were presented the keys. Houses in our price range were/are selling so fast that he didn't want to wait for the two showings that were scheduled after him.
I haven't been here long enough to know the trends but it seems like houses are listing at higher prices than even 6 months ago when we were looking.
Correction coming. I've been watching the market here in central Florida for almost two years. Two houses in my hood are still empty after two years waiting for that dream buyer because they are priced way too high Starting to see a bunch of price reduced listings as sellers get a wake up call after trying to test the market.
My favorite ones are the owners who list and then do a 20,000 grand price cut in 7 days. WTH?
Some buyers click on the "price reduced" tab. Maybe they are looking to appeal to those buyers.
30,000 sq ft. 22 car garage. 2.5 acres. Property taxes $95,000/yr.
Those who are ready, willing and able to afford properties in this range, usually prefer to build their own, rather than buy someone else’s vision of perfection.
Only if there is highly desirable land with views or oceanfront/lakefront available.
Some cities allow tear-downs of old properties and many don't.
What good does it do to build a $25-million mansion in a less desirable location?
Last edited by SFBayBoomer; 05-10-2018 at 06:25 PM..
Of course there are a lot fewer people that can buy a $10 or $20 million home .
It’s interesting I read about these celebrities that are selling their homes and a lot of times it seems they aren’t making much after commissions.
An example Taylor Swift just sold a home for $4 million in L.A .. she bought it for $3.55 back in 2011 .. many “regular” homes have doubled or more in that time . Plus she likely remodeled it at least somewhat .
Sale commission and closing costs would probably be 8% at least .
So if she didn’t lose money she barely broke even . During one of the highest periods of appreciation . Of course she’s not hurting.
I’m guessing there are probably tax strategies these celebrities are using also. Seems common for them to own several homes even in the same neighborhood.
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Luxury homes in some of Los Angeles’ wealthiest communities depreciated dramatically each day they spent on the market in 2017, dropping far faster than other homes in the country. In other words, if you’re selling a luxury house in neighborhoods like Bel Air or Holmby Hills, try to close the deal fast.
The top 10 sales in the tony neighborhoods dropped roughly $44,000 per day on the market, averaging a sales price of around $24.4 million last year. That’s 70 percent of the original asking price after an average of 251 days on the market, according to data collected by the firm Concierge Auctions.
“The data shows that a property either sells very quickly out of the gate for a high percentage of its asking price, or it lingers on the market and sells at a much later date for a much lesser percentage of the original listing price,” Concierge Auctions president Laura Brady told the Wall Street Journal.
While I think much of the '08 crash could be attributed to loose banking practices, I think many of the buyers were just as much to blame. While they could afford a house on paper, they couldn't in reality. Just because the rules are loose doesn't mean you need to play loose.
I'm one of those doomsdayers who believes there is another downturn coming. I pray it doesn't happen because it will hurt lots of people, but I'm more concerned about my family. No offense. I'm just being real here. I have little doubt others feel the same.
If the over-under were set at 7 years, I'm taking the under.
I'm seeing a lot of the same behavior we saw prior to the 2008 downturn. Bidding wars, overpriced and poorly constructed boxes made for a quick sale while sacrificing quality, ridiculously fast "appreciation". The main thing I saw than and now is the flipper. Lots of trend chasing; open concept, granite, stainless, etc. Remember, avocado was the hot stuff, then it wasn't. And how do you get high-end finishes with a mid-range price? You have to cut corners somewhere, or at least cheap out somewhere.
I may be way off base on this one, but the flipping I saw with my own eyes never seemed sustainable, yet people were snatching up flipped houses and would damn near get into a fight over them. Buying a house for $100k and doing $10k worth of work does not make the house suddenly worth $250k. I'm absolutely not in favor of new laws but, I almost feel like a flipper should have to indicate such on a disclosure form, if for nothing other than the buyer to see that there may be cause for a more detailed inspection. Face it, flippers are known for plugging a dam with a stick and painting over it.
The flipping was what had me worried the most. TV shows, podcasts, seminars, etc. My brother narrowly avoided losing his tail. Me, being skeptical, i avoided the game altogether.
I'm back to not liking what I see, and I didn't like what I saw in late 2005. At this point, I'd buy a home to live in long term but I wouldn't be looking to flip. Rentals, sure. If the price is right. But my area is different from the country as a whole. We've got ridiculous growth with no signs of stopping. We maybe saw 40% of the effects some other places did.
I recently read a book on Israel, and with no choice, they're the stingiest with water in the world. Before Israel became a country, naysayers claimed that Israel, due to their water shortage, couldn't support a population more than 500,000. And look at Israel today? Millions, millions of people! Of course, they have 4 de-sal plants off the coast which is for their drinking water, but they're the best water managers in the world, and they've created multi-billion dollar water management companies who counsel water deprived countries all over the world. In Israel you even need a permit to put a pail on top of your roof to collect water. Children are taught, from early on, the sanctity of water. You spray your body with water in the shower, turn it off, soap up, then spray it off. You don't let the water running while brushing your teeth.
Drip irrigation only for their crops
Put the Israeli's in charge of water in CA and the Southwest, and you could see an additional population of 10-20 million or more, easily!
That's the least of my worries living in the Southwest, running out of water!
And then there's that multi-billion dollar dream project called NAWAPA. Create a dam in British Columbia with a reservoir 100 miles long, and send that water south to CA and Mexico.
While I think much of the '08 crash could be attributed to loose banking practices, I think many of the buyers were just as much to blame. While they could afford a house on paper, they couldn't in reality. Just because the rules are loose doesn't mean you need to play loose.
I'm one of those doomsdayers who believes there is another downturn coming. I pray it doesn't happen because it will hurt lots of people, but I'm more concerned about my family. No offense. I'm just being real here. I have little doubt others feel the same.
If the over-under were set at 7 years, I'm taking the under.
I'm seeing a lot of the same behavior we saw prior to the 2008 downturn. Bidding wars, overpriced and poorly constructed boxes made for a quick sale while sacrificing quality, ridiculously fast "appreciation". The main thing I saw than and now is the flipper. Lots of trend chasing; open concept, granite, stainless, etc. Remember, avocado was the hot stuff, then it wasn't. And how do you get high-end finishes with a mid-range price? You have to cut corners somewhere, or at least cheap out somewhere.
I may be way off base on this one, but the flipping I saw with my own eyes never seemed sustainable, yet people were snatching up flipped houses and would damn near get into a fight over them. Buying a house for $100k and doing $10k worth of work does not make the house suddenly worth $250k. I'm absolutely not in favor of new laws but, I almost feel like a flipper should have to indicate such on a disclosure form, if for nothing other than the buyer to see that there may be cause for a more detailed inspection. Face it, flippers are known for plugging a dam with a stick and painting over it.
The flipping was what had me worried the most. TV shows, podcasts, seminars, etc. My brother narrowly avoided losing his tail. Me, being skeptical, i avoided the game altogether.
I'm back to not liking what I see, and I didn't like what I saw in late 2005. At this point, I'd buy a home to live in long term but I wouldn't be looking to flip. Rentals, sure. If the price is right. But my area is different from the country as a whole. We've got ridiculous growth with no signs of stopping. We maybe saw 40% of the effects some other places did.
I'm sticking to under 7 years.
Flipping now is actually at an 11 year high . Profits are actually lower now because it’s become so competitive.
I’d say it was probably better to flip during the crash versus now .
There also seems to be a lot of easy money for flipping .
Yes and no....those areas with "slow and steady" value increase are safer than those with "extreme" value increase for sure.....
and I think a lot of the "08" crash had so much to do with people in this "high value increase properties" taking the HEL for 2-4 X what they bought the place for, and getting those 100-120% "value" Home Equity Loans....and just walking away.
Here in TX, because of the oil bust in the 80's you can only get a MAX of 80% On HLC and HEL....so I think we are much safer personally
.
West coast is in a housing crunch. No more land available without re-zoning, no new sfh being built. Any new housing is luxury condos. It's not going to slow down here for a while.
No chance of Hesperia or Victorville being built up more and adding some commuter train lines?
Is there a market out there that isn't hot at the moment? (Besides rural areas with low demand)
We bought in Nov. and my husband put an above-asking offer in on the spot. I didn't even see our new house until we closed and were presented the keys. Houses in our price range were/are selling so fast that he didn't want to wait for the two showings that were scheduled after him.
I haven't been here long enough to know the trends but it seems like houses are listing at higher prices than even 6 months ago when we were looking.
Yes there are some. We live in a township consisting of 14 islands south of Detroit. It is a high end place, a least a thousand waterfront homes, awesome schools, safest place in the state, and lots of open space, bike trails, woods, etc. However, it is not well known and it is surrounded by an area that was until recently mostly populated by blue collar factory workers and the factories they work in. The trendy area where all the yuppies flock is to the north of Detroit and they think there is nothing but slums south of 12 mile road (we are about 35 miles south of 12 mile). The homes in our community sit on the market for a year or so. the way high end ones (in the tens of millions) can sit for many years. I think this is because most people who can afford homes in this price range want to live up in the trendy area and sit in traffic.
Funny story Emenim (I think that is how you spell his name) was going to buy a house here, but he decided he did not want to ruin such a peaceful quiet place. (People find out where he lives and line up at along the road or do other crazy stuff to get a little closer to him. Plus we do not allow fences along the waterfront and he needs fences.
Sorry to drift, I was just reminded of that.
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