Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-05-2008, 07:48 AM
 
995 posts, read 3,924,780 times
Reputation: 362

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingbyron View Post
When houses start dropping, people start buying.
I'm not trying to attack you, believe me. But this is one of the classical fallacies in Economics.

Price decrease result in higher demand? Well it may sound right but the correct logic is lower demand decreases the price, which doesn't make the demand higher than before. Even 25% of my MBA students don't get it right.

I agree that 50% adjustment is unlikely. I also agree that it CAN be a good time to buy for SOME buyers. In fact, I just bought a house in S. Florida. I am paying 85% of what the owner paid 8 months ago.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-05-2008, 08:27 AM
 
16,433 posts, read 22,152,537 times
Reputation: 9622
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingbyron View Post
I
Personally, I think it IS a good time to buy. But I am not an INVESTOR, nor am I a realtor. I am average Joanne Blow, who will soon be looking for another home for my family. I'm not a speculator. What you have to understand is this: if people need homes, they will buy. I don't have 12-18 months to wait out this market by renting,
...
It's possible that you are right, but unlikely. The housing collapse is in the beginning stages, not the bottom. Buying a house to live in is the right reason, and if you miss the bottom it's still your home, not a poor investment. I don't understand why you "don't have time' to rent while the market levels, but that's your business. The problems selling houses are manifold, too many owe more than they can sell for, much tighter credit requirements for potential buyers (even if they "need"* to buy), rapidly increasing unemployment putting more existing homes up for sale and on and on. I believe if you wait until 2010/2011 you will find 20% lower house prices. That would justify a couple years rent.

*You don't really ever "need" to buy when there are so many affordable places to rent.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2008, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
10,939 posts, read 21,911,902 times
Reputation: 10571
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bideshi View Post

*You don't really ever "need" to buy when there are so many affordable places to rent.
If rent is cheaper and you're looking at a 2-3 year stop in a location then certainly that's something to consider. However, my market is pretty stable and rent is more expensive than mortgage in Columbia. For the price a decent 1 BR/ 1 BA apt someone can buy a decent 3 BR/ 2 BA house.

That's why you keep seeing the "real estate is local" everywhere. Your market is not my market and vice versa.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2008, 01:01 PM
 
Location: Salem, OR
15,537 posts, read 40,304,505 times
Reputation: 17422
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humboldt1 View Post
It was to combat koolaid drinking realtors who always think now is the best time to buy.
Hey are you bashing my koolaid...

I do my best market condition reports while drinking my koolaid...doused with a dash of rum, mind you. The market always looks better after I've had some Koolaid.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2008, 01:12 PM
GLS
 
1,985 posts, read 5,371,443 times
Reputation: 2472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Hoffman View Post
If rent is cheaper and you're looking at a 2-3 year stop in a location then certainly that's something to consider. However, my market is pretty stable and rent is more expensive than mortgage in Columbia. For the price a decent 1 BR/ 1 BA apt someone can buy a decent 3 BR/ 2 BA house.

That's why you keep seeing the "real estate is local" everywhere. Your market is not my market and vice versa.
I agree with you, and the following example is illustrative. Years ago I lived in Topanga Canyon, CA. While reviewing the real estate today, I noticed a 1 bed, 1 bath "cottage" for sale on my former street.The lot size is only 1/8 acre. It is listed for $875K! Not only is "your market not my market", but my former market is not my market. There are pockets of wierdness in local real estate that make generalizations inappropriate.

PS In all fairness to the discussion, I didn't ask if they would be willing to rent it for $10,000 month (utilities not included).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-07-2008, 08:41 AM
 
395 posts, read 488,831 times
Reputation: 30
here are some of my other facts/links:

The Big Picture | Housing: US vs Japan

Housing-Meltdown: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

Reports Reflect Bleak Housing Picture: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)

we aint hit the bottom yet...if u want to buy..just keep on waiting.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-07-2008, 09:07 AM
 
1,831 posts, read 5,285,877 times
Reputation: 673
How much will prices drop? I really don't know but, this is what I'm doing to hedge my bets.

We're moving back to the California coast so, we're going to sell our desert house. We don't owe much on it so, if we have to slash the price ... no big deal. We should still make some money and get our costs back. We don't have much of a mortgage payment so, we can afford to carry it for awhile if we have to and, make it a rental if necessary.

But we're moving now so we can rent and watch the area we want to buy in more closely. These prices are dropping so fast we don't want to miss the bottom when it hits so, that's why we're moving now.

Prices have dropped from $550K to $380K on average but, there's a lot of short sales and houses on the verge of foreclosure so I think there's possibly another 20+ percent depreciation ... at least in the area I'm watching.

Since we'll only have to pay $1500 a month for rent, we'll just wait and watch but, I don't think the time to buy is now ... I think there's still a lot of downside to go. But, if I'm wrong and prices start inching up a bit ... I'm putting myself in a position to move fast if necessary.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-07-2008, 09:18 AM
 
1,831 posts, read 5,285,877 times
Reputation: 673
Quote:
Originally Posted by acegolfer View Post
I agree that 50% adjustment is unlikely.
Actually ... it may be possible.

I used to think 50 percent was a pipe dream but, it also depends on the market. In the area I'm interested in along the California Coast, prices have already dropped over 30 percent. Basically from $550K on average to $380K on average.

Now you'd think people would be coming in buying up properties at those prices but, there's actually very little activity. Less sales this month than the month before ... even with price reductions everywhere.

Then you pick up the fliers in the neighborhoods and a bunch of them are short sales ... soon to go into foreclosure. And these are not bad neighborhoods ... they're very nice, brand new subdivisions where most houses aren't even two years old ...

So ... from what I'm seeing ... a 50 percent price adjustment could very well be possible in some markets, especially in California.

Last edited by sheri257; 04-07-2008 at 10:05 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-07-2008, 12:20 PM
 
4,423 posts, read 7,347,906 times
Reputation: 10935
50% from what? From some seller's nutball fantasy that his $450,000 home might have been worth $700,000 a few years ago? It's all perspective if you ask me.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-07-2008, 01:03 PM
 
1,831 posts, read 5,285,877 times
Reputation: 673
Quote:
Originally Posted by verobeach View Post
50% from what? From some seller's nutball fantasy that his $450,000 home might have been worth $700,000 a few years ago? It's all perspective if you ask me.
Well ... that's what makes this whole thing so bizarre. Yeah ... the home wasn't really worth $700K but, that's what people paid for it. So, in a way it was worth that much but, of course, they really didn't pay for the home ... the bank did with all of this bizarre funny money ...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top