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Should I go off of researched statistics or random people saying "no, market is still strong, please buy a house!!"
Those numbers are no surprise. I run a decent sized team and we lost about 25% of our current contracts in a 2-3 week period where the sale was cancelled. We also had a number of buyers put the search on pause. Also, with stay at home orders, some buyers weren't sure if it was alright to go look at homes or not. If it turns out the pandemic isn't as bad as expected and we re-open businesses, I think we recover very quickly and many of those buyers on the waiting to see what happens jump at the same time leading to a little mini-boom just like we would have had a little mini-slump. Then things balance out a little bit.
If the economy doesn't recover and too many of the job losses become permanent, the economy will suffer as a whole and that will cause home prices to drop, which leads to real estate crash.
Of course, it's all speculation right now. The truth is it's too early to know what will happen. We simply don't have enough information in an uncertain future.
Again, this should come as no surprise to anyone. What to watch will be trends, not one or 2 months that are expected to be bad. Is this is a blip, or do sales stay down into the summer? If they do, that's when we have a problem.
Those numbers are no surprise. I run a decent sized team and we lost about 25% of our current contracts in a 2-3 week period where the sale was cancelled. We also had a number of buyers put the search on pause. Also, with stay at home orders, some buyers weren't sure if it was alright to go look at homes or not. If it turns out the pandemic isn't as bad as expected and we re-open businesses, I think we recover very quickly and many of those buyers on the waiting to see what happens jump at the same time leading to a little mini-boom just like we would have had a little mini-slump. Then things balance out a little bit.
If the economy doesn't recover and too many of the job losses become permanent, the economy will suffer as a whole and that will cause home prices to drop, which leads to real estate crash.
Of course, it's all speculation right now. The truth is it's too early to know what will happen. We simply don't have enough information in an uncertain future.
Yeah, I'm still leaning towards buying as the thought of throwing rent away is painful, but I could miss out on an opportunity to buy in an actual buyer's market.
I believe there is some speculation that there will be considerably less sellers this spring\summer. This will reflect lower sales but not necessarily a buyers market. Less homes for sale = less sales overall
Just like people will be hesitant to buy there will be people hesitant to sell. They have equity built up, uncertain about their jobs, can no longer afford the bigger house etc... There will also be some I am sure who will need to sell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaylord_Focker
Yeah, I'm still leaning towards buying as the thought of throwing rent away is painful, but I could miss out on an opportunity to buy in an actual buyer's market.
There will also be some I am sure who will need to sell.
THIS is the real issue. The others are purely opportunists... If you have to sell, then you have to sell (reasons irrelevant), then the price is secondary...
I believe there is some speculation that there will be considerably less sellers this spring\summer. This will reflect lower sales but not necessarily a buyers market. Less homes for sale = less sales overall
Just like people will be hesitant to buy there will be people hesitant to sell. They have equity built up, uncertain about their jobs, can no longer afford the bigger house etc... There will also be some I am sure who will need to sell.
Yep - this is the thing we can't know.
Will fewer houses prop up prices, because people just don't want to sell? Those that have to sell will, but are those who are affected by job losses, or were they in a rental market already?
I think we end up in a stalemate for a while...from there? Who knows.
Yeah, I'm still leaning towards buying as the thought of throwing rent away is painful, but I could miss out on an opportunity to buy in an actual buyer's market.
Watch interest rates too. If you're planning to stay where you buy for a while, it can cost you more if interest rates jump even if prices do fall. All speculation of course, just one more thing to consider.
Watch interest rates too. If you're planning to stay where you buy for a while, it can cost you more if interest rates jump even if prices do fall. All speculation of course, just one more thing to consider.
Yes, you are right, but there is always the possibility to refinance when the rates go down. However sitting in a house you paid 500k for (april 2020), which is 300k worth now (maybe april 2021), is not very funny, and nothing you can do about...
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