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Old 05-12-2020, 10:23 PM
 
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Looks like most of the REITs have been hit extra hard during COVID. The builders are still way down. Both recovered some. However, various local markets are still doing well. Would it be foolish to ignore what the stock market tells us? Is it possible for the major residential markets to remain unscathed? Would a big inventory buildup come before the lower prices or would it be more of a stagnation? Your opinions?
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Old 05-13-2020, 02:39 AM
 
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brick and mortar prices in the here and now .reits are priced by fear , greed and perception of lots of different things years from now..

2 completely different price structures .

if you were buying a local business you may base it on the next year or 2 earnings ... a stock can price on guesses a decade out
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Old 05-13-2020, 04:44 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
brick and mortar prices in the here and now .reits are priced by fear , greed and perception of lots of different things years from now..

2 completely different price structures .

if you were buying a local business you may base it on the next year or 2 earnings ... a stock can price on guesses a decade out
Good points, but eventually earnings determine stock prices. "Fear, greed, and perception," sound more like the real estate agent's playbook.
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Old 05-13-2020, 04:53 AM
 
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never confuse a good stock with a good company ... without institutional coverage a great company dies on the vine .

on the other hand many great stocks have no earnings yet and wont for many years , if ever . they may end up to be poorly run companies or bad ideas but they are great stocks for trading . 90% of the days volume is just high frequency trading .

actual business's we buy or property are valued by very different criteria . would you ever buy a mom and pop local business at 30x earnings ? not me. but tech stocks are no problem for the markets ..

we tend to value business's we buy locally based on what the currently do plus perhaps a little blue sky added in .
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Old 05-13-2020, 06:06 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
never confuse a good stock with a good company ... without institutional coverage a great company dies on the vine .

on the other hand many great stocks have no earnings yet and wont for many years , if ever . they may end up to be poorly run companies or bad ideas but they are great stocks for trading . 90% of the days volume is just high frequency trading .

actual business's we buy or property are valued by very different criteria . would you ever buy a mom and pop local business at 30x earnings ? not me. but tech stocks are no problem for the markets ..

we tend to value business's we buy locally based on what the currently do plus perhaps a little blue sky added in .
People pay 30 x rent all the time in high priced areas for the real estate.
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Old 05-13-2020, 06:08 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Hal Roach View Post
People pay 30 x rent all the time in high priced areas.
the problem is you are confused ...earnings are profits not revenue .......... 30x rent would be revenue not earnings ... real estate is not selling here in nyc for 30x earnings . big difference between profits vs revenue which is the gross amount taken in like rent before expenses .

wall street reports both earnings (profit or losses ) and revenue (total dollars taken in ) rents are revenue not earnings. no you see how crazy 20 ,30x EARNINGS IS

Last edited by mathjak107; 05-13-2020 at 07:02 AM..
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Old 05-14-2020, 08:28 AM
 
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It's too early to correlate national news/trends to local markets. It's a possible predictor for the economy a year out but it's too soon now.



Too much money has been taken out of the economy and many were spending on tp, take out food and higher utility bills with time home and that's down payment and deposit money for apartments and houses. Also this occurred at tax time nationally and in many local markets which also stressed local buyers and renters doing business with the businesses in those RIETS
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Old 05-14-2020, 08:31 AM
 
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on the other hand lots of dough sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed too . big players have huge cash hordes .
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Old 05-14-2020, 08:37 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
on the other hand lots of dough sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed too . big players have huge cash hordes .

They could prop certain neighborhoods once things are opened up. Investor groups were already buying renovated houses above boom prices here. The future rental market is probably lots of smaller buildings rather than the big complexes and tall buildings.


Problem is with some investors is they have a lot of money tied up in the stock market and other investments that didn't fair well.
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Old 05-14-2020, 09:22 AM
 
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Originally Posted by anononcty View Post
They could prop certain neighborhoods once things are opened up. Investor groups were already buying renovated houses above boom prices here. The future rental market is probably lots of smaller buildings rather than the big complexes and tall buildings.


Problem is with some investors is they have a lot of money tied up in the stock market and other investments that didn't fair well.
over the years markets did very well , it is not about 1 year .. i mean we are retired , spending 6 figures a year from our portfolio and even now our balance is higher then we were 5 years when we started retirement
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