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Old 06-30-2020, 05:28 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
36,104 posts, read 62,911,893 times
Reputation: 35818

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Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
1. 1-2% of the gross is all the money
2. Depends on your vacation? I have friends that spend more annually on travel than I did on my first house!
3. Do you really believe realtors funded sites like zillow? Zillow farms public data bases (even has a link to their data sources in the property description!).
4. Do you realize that you made no sense? Price is always based on sq ft! I've never seen a realtor that doesn't start with neighborhood comps, followed by price per sq ft then multiplying that by your actual sq footage. None of this BTW is any trade secret, so again what are they bringing to the table?


Hey if you are a current realtor crushing it, fine.....ride the wave of success but the business is a broken model. Just like buying a car doesn't need a local salesman (email, negotiate, go in and sign the paperwork, drive away or even let them deliver it).

Fact is there are too many waiter/bartender/soccer mom/part time realtors that are making no money and hoping to be a "millionaire producer" like on TV. The market will surely change and thin those types out. It is a mediocre living for 85% of the realtors out there, the other 15% are killing it.
https://www.homelight.com/blog/how-m...ors-in-the-us/
2mm realtors in the US, 1.4mm joined the MLS..............yet there were only 5.5mm transactions in 2017. Bascially one realtor for every 2.75 sales for every realtor in the US. Now clearly nobody is holding out to close less than 3 deals a year but it also shows there are way way way too many realtors.

The internet has changed many industries, the high commission is going to be the bullseye for those trying to change the industry. You book flights/hotels/car rentals yourself on websites like Expedia (eliminating the travel agent), buy cars online from local dealers, Amazon sells everything under the sun for less than local retailers.

The title agent does all the "official work" with the documents/loans etc yet they don't get paid as much as the realtor. How can you believe that the realtor's days aren't numbered (too many, too high commission, actually not needed by law to get a sale done).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zillow

Interesting where the founders of Zillow came from:

Zillow Group, Inc., or simply Zillow, is an American online real estate database company that was founded in 2006,[4] and was created by Rich Barton and Lloyd Frink, former Microsoft executives and founders of Microsoft spin-off Expedia, Spencer Rascoff, a cofounder of Hotwire.com, David Beitel, Zillow's current chief technology officer, and Kristin Acker, Zillow's current senior vice president of experience design


I believe your REALTOR head count is in error.
1.38 million as of May, 2019. https://www.nar.realtor/membership/monthly-report

I believe your transaction data is hugely erroneous, and under-researched.

Between those two significant errors, it is obvious your statistical presentation is flawed beyond value.

New home sales, 2019: 683,000
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...new-home-sales
Even when the buyer does not have an agent, most tract builders, and many custom spec builders are represented by licensed employees who often are also REALTORs.
Each transaction MAY have two agents, creating 1,366,000 potential agent transactions.
How did you account for new home construction sales by REALTORs?

Existing Home Sales, 2019: 5.33 million
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ing-home-sales
Each transaction MAY have two agents, creating 10,660,000 potential agent transactions.

10,660,000 + 1,366,000 = 12,026,000 potential sales transactions.

What info did you use to reduce that figure to 5.5 million?

Rentals.
Home ownership in the U.S. hovers in the 63%--65% range. I.e., a third of residents are renters.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ownership-rate
How many units did you allow for property management/rental transactions in your 5.5 million figure?
30% to 40% of U.S. residents are renters, and the most common leases are 12 months. I.e., did you allow for REALTOR-assisted property rentals, renter moves, or lease renewals as transactions?
In most states, property management requires a real estate license, and many property managers are also REALTORs.
How do your figures account for the full time property managers?

Commercial REALTORs.
Do your 2mm/1.4 million take them into account, and also their sales and leasing transactions?

Land specialists.
Brokering land sales is big business, for residential and commercial agents. Some only work land. Some work residential and/or commercial also.
How do your sales figures account for land sales by REALTORs?

Many licensees and REALTORs never intend to sell property at all.

They may be licensed assistants in offices or on teams. They may be property managers who only handle rentals and leasing. They may be home inspectors, appraisers, pest control operators, all who need MLS access and/or data to do their jobs.
How do your figures adjust for these facts?

Churn/burn industry.
A huge percentage of licensees never renew past the first or second year, when they realize the realities of making a living from a standing start.
How do you adjust your stats for that annual turnover when calculating sales per REALTOR?

Zillow....
LOL Lawdy, Lawdy.
Yes. Premier Agents advertising revenue, DotLoop revenue and data-skimming for resale have helped keep Zillow afloat.
Since going public in 2015, Zillow has never presented a credible path to sustainable profit.
They HAVE managed to incinerate over a billion dollars of investment capital, whilst insiders, including the people you mention above, have successfully stripped out over $800 million in stock-based compensation + salaries and benefits.
Unless Z can slow the bleeding, I predict they will issue more stock by the end of next year, diluting their stockholders value. The insiders will likely mostly cash out before that happens.
And, the insiders still hold 12% of the float. Anxiously waiting for that next window of opportunity to cash out?
Such a role model for change!!
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
9,685 posts, read 19,051,706 times
Reputation: 7862
Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
1. 1-2% of the gross is all the money
2. Depends on your vacation? I have friends that spend more annually on travel than I did on my first house!
3. Do you really believe realtors funded sites like zillow? Zillow farms public data bases (even has a link to their data sources in the property description!).
4. Do you realize that you made no sense? Price is always based on sq ft! I've never seen a realtor that doesn't start with neighborhood comps, followed by price per sq ft then multiplying that by your actual sq footage. None of this BTW is any trade secret, so again what are they bringing to the table?[/i][/b]
1-Why a percentage for commissions instead of a flat rate? If you're going to push for an alternative pay structure why not a flat rate or an hourly rate? And if you went to an alternative model, which and how much would you think?

2-You picked an exception to the rule with your friend, but reality is that selling or buying a house is much more complicated and much riskier than planning a vacation for 99.999% of the world. But I can't see the future so maybe someday the agent does go the way of the travel agent.

3- I believe Zillow paid for their technology with startup investors but Zillow made their initial revenues, and the bulk of their current revenue, from selling ads and leads to agents. They since added affiliated businesses like dotloop. Mike J addressed in more detail.

4-SF is part of the equation but not the whole enchilada. Supply and demand, style, condition, location, lot, water frontage, and more come into play when pricing a home. If I'm wrong, I can cost someone thousands or tens of thousands of dollars. I agree too many agents don't know how to price and make proper adjustments. I've seen some terrible pricing from agents, but the experienced and educated agents seem to do well in this area.

Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
Fact is there are too many waiter/bartender/soccer mom/part time realtors that are making no money and hoping to be a "millionaire producer" like on TV. The market will surely change and thin those types out. It is a mediocre living for 85% of the realtors out there, the other 15% are killing it.
https://www.homelight.com/blog/how-m...ors-in-the-us/
2mm realtors in the US, 1.4mm joined the MLS..............yet there were only 5.5mm transactions in 2017. Bascially one realtor for every 2.75 sales for every realtor in the US. Now clearly nobody is holding out to close less than 3 deals a year but it also shows there are way way way too many realtors.
I agree, I would like to see increased professionalism/higher standards/fewer agents in the industry but some of those part timers are more professional, dedicated, and knowledgeable than some of the full time agents. They just choose to limit the number of clients and who their clients are to their sphere.

Mike J addressed some of the info well, so I'll just stand on his post for the rest because he stated it so much more eloquently than I would have.
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Old 07-04-2020, 05:01 PM
 
3,999 posts, read 2,280,951 times
Reputation: 12367
We have our WA home on MLS4owners. Six month contract. If we have no offers in a couple of months we can cancel and go with a realtor.

Actually had a realtor who lives nearby, who is selling her large home come by and check out ours. She is wanting to downsize so, who knows? She might buy it.
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