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Old 06-09-2021, 08:46 PM
 
Location: The New England part of Ohio
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I think the focus should be on a pathway to home ownership for more Americans. Home ownership provides stability, both financial and personal.
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Old 06-10-2021, 07:23 AM
 
Location: The Triad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheena12 View Post
I think the focus should be on a pathway to home ownership for more Americans.
That's called having the skills/education and personal responsibility to stick.
Next is a job market that will actually pay decently -- even for the low level jobs.
Most of that is about having FEWER people to better align available labor hours with the fewer JOB hours we actually have.
Quote:
Home ownership provides stability, both financial and personal.
You have the dynamic backwards; the cart in front of the horse.
Homeownership (financial solvency in general) is the result of (all the above) ... it's NOT the cause of them.
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Old 06-10-2021, 08:34 AM
 
Location: The Triad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
Do you think this is will be a structural shift in the US housing market or ...?
The structural shift we need is a REDUCTION in population numbers.
With that accomplished the number of bedrooms needed drops. (That'll take 20-40 years)
MEANWHILE... the nature of who lives in the family home (buy or rent) needs to change.


The nuclear family +1 or +2 all sharing a home together.
Ward & June with their boys Wally and Beav ... plus Uncle Billy or Aunt Martha in the converted garage.
More household income is available to cover crazy high RE costs (buy or rent).


Almost zero new construction is needed (or wanted really); just remodeling existing homes.
As the oldest pass on, and the the youngest numbers are reduced, the alignment comes together.
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Old 06-10-2021, 08:37 AM
 
10,609 posts, read 5,639,469 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheena12 View Post
Home ownership provides stability, both financial and personal.
I agree. One can argue financial stability leads to home ownership, or that home ownership leads to financial stability, but at the end of the day, those who own homes frequently are more stable.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sheena12 View Post
I think the focus should be on a pathway to home ownership for more Americans.

The devil is in the details, as they say. At the Federal level, their numerous incentives, including tax-deductibility of mortgage interest payments and the exclusion of 250K/500K of capital gains upon sale. They have worked well to encourage homeownership.

But not all interventions work out well.

Take the actions 30 years ago by out government -- specifically the actions of Henry Cisneros, then Secretary of HUD, and the now-disgraced Roberta Achtenberg, then Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity.

Roberta Achtenberg saw home ownership through the lens of social class. After all - that was her job title. She was supposed to root out and destroy violations of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity.

Achtenberg observed that for the bulk of the 20th century, Dad had a job, and his compensation put food on the table, clothes on the backs of the family, and most importantly, a roof over their head.

By the latter part of the 1980s, the model seemed to have been flipped on its head. A house became the major source of a family's wealth, and Dad's job (and Mom's too) was a source to pay the mortgage -- and the magic of leverage-based housing price appreciation did its job. After all, housing prices only go up, right? Achtenberg's observation was that low-income people, and specifically low-income protected minorities, were turning into a permanent underclass because they didn't own homes at the same rate as others farther up the economic ladder. https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/...g_act_overview

The train of home-ownership was leaving the station without protected classes, and as the Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity czar, she wanted to do something about it.

So she did -- she rewrote regulations to twist the arm of mortgage originators to write more mortgages to increase home ownership in the poor and minority communities protected by the Fair Housing Act and by lobbying congress for what ultimately became the Financial Services Modernization Act Of 1999 which repealed many of the last vestiges of the Glass-Steagall Act so that mortgage originators could more easily securitize and sell off the alphabet soup of CDOs, MBSs, ABSs, etc. She did this because mortgage originators needed a more effective way to offload the loans they made to those poor and minority communities. After all, the banks already were originating mortgages to everyone who could reasonably be expected to repay the loan, and under the new Achtenberg Rules they needed to increase mortgage origination to even more, and those incremental mortgages were to people who necessarily were less likely to repay.

Of course, it wasn't just HUD.

Beginning in 1992, the government required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to direct a substantial portion of their mortgage financing to borrowers who were at or below the median income in their communities, giving a leg-up to the poor and more specifically poor people-of-color (HUD's protected class). The original quota was 30%. But the Department of Housing and Urban Development was given authority to adjust it, and through the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations HUD raised the quota to 50% by 2000 and 55% by 2007.

It is certainly possible to find prime borrowers among people with incomes below the median. But when more than half of the mortgages Fannie and Freddie were required to buy were required to have that characteristic, these two government-sponsored enterprises had to significantly reduce their underwriting standards.

Fannie and Freddie were not the only government-backed or government-controlled organizations that were enlisted in this process. The Federal Housing Administration was competing with Fannie and Freddie for the same mortgages. And thanks to rules adopted in 1995 under the Community Reinvestment Act, regulated banks as well as savings and loan associations had to make a certain number of loans to borrowers who were at or below 80% of the median income in the areas they served.

27 million loans—half of all mortgages in the U.S.—were subprime or otherwise weak by 2008. That is, the loans were made to borrowers with blemished credit, or were loans with no or low down payments, no documentation, or required only interest payments.

Of these, over 70% were held or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie or some other government agency or government-regulated institution. Thus it is clear where the demand for these deficient mortgages came from.

The huge government investment in subprime mortgages achieved its purpose. Home ownership in the U.S. increased to 69% from 65% (where it had been for 30 years). But it also led to the biggest housing bubble in American history. This bubble, which lasted from 1997 to 2007, also created a huge private market for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) based on pools of subprime loans.

As housing bubbles grow, rising prices suppress delinquencies and defaults. People who could not meet their mortgage obligations could refinance or sell, because their houses were now worth more.

Accordingly, by the mid-2000s, investors had begun to notice that securities based on subprime mortgages were producing the high yields, but not showing the large number of defaults, that are usually associated with subprime loans. This triggered strong investor demand for these securities, causing the growth of the first significant private market for MBS based on subprime and other risky mortgages.

By 2008 this market consisted of about 7.8 million subprime loans, nearly one-third of the 27 million that were then outstanding.

Then the government-caused bubble popped. And the rest, as they say, is history. You may be too young to remember the Great Recession, but I trust you can read the many stories of real pain & suffering documented in numerous sources.

There is a special place in Hell reserved for Achtenberg -- she caused massive misery across the world, all in the name of actions to increase home ownership among HUD protected populations.

Last edited by RationalExpectations; 06-10-2021 at 09:44 AM..
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Old 06-10-2021, 08:40 AM
 
Location: Rural Wisconsin
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^^^ VERY informative and objective post. Thank you!
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Old 06-11-2021, 04:29 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
st zero new construction is needed (or wanted really); just remodeling existing homes.
As the oldest pass on, and the the youngest numbers are reduced, the alignment comes together.
Wrong. We have a tremendous shortage of housing in many areas of t he country. This shortage is the major reason for the huge jump in housing prices. Demand far exceeds the supply many towns and cities.

When there are multiple offers on homes hitting the market it is caused by a shortage of homes, and more need to be built in that area.
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Old 06-11-2021, 11:42 PM
 
Location: The Triad
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Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
Wrong. We have a tremendous shortage of housing in many areas...
Meh. In virtually every area we have an oversupply of people.
Try grabbing the problem from this other end of the stick.
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Old 06-12-2021, 12:46 AM
 
3,765 posts, read 4,098,638 times
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Here is a newer Daily Mail article dealing with the same:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...o=taboola_feed
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Old 06-12-2021, 01:05 PM
 
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A fad in a lot of real estate investing are these companies or investors that are actually selling rental income as income to retail investors/clients. There were a few offering 14-18% guaranteed income now others want in on the rental income dividend/distribution game.

Alot of etfs(exchange traded funds) and mutual funds offering similar investments open to public investors. It's a fad now until evictions start or those locations cant of fill or lose vacancy.
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Old 06-12-2021, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Prepperland
19,013 posts, read 14,188,739 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
Do you think this is will be a structural shift in the US housing market or just a blip with minimal impact?
I believe that in the coming decades, high population density will favor renters over owners.

My personal favorite is a dual ring village. Imagine a line of 4 -5 story townhomes, wrapped into a ring. Do it again, making a central park, two rings, separated by a ring road. The ground level is reserved for enterprise, and the upper stories are apartments (and offices). Make the exterior wall a thick barrier, and you have a disaster resistant, energy and resource efficient structure. Add a single water tight security gate, and your community can withstand high winds, earthquakes, flash floods, storm surge, mud slides, flying debris, wild fires, etc, etc. And each apartment has only two exposed surfaces out of six, reducing the energy needed to maintain comfort.

Height Comparisons

  • Five story Ring Wall - 50 ft.
  • Tallest Fujian Tulou - 49 ft.
  • Four story Ring Wall - 40 ft.
  • Walls of Constantinople - 39 ft.
  • Great Wall of China - 16 to 26 ft.

HAKKA TULOU
Walls as Rooms /4 : The Hakka Tulou (Community Housing for Equals) – SOCKS

The highest documented storm surge in the U.S. occurred in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, when Pass Christian, MS, recorded a 27.8 foot (8.47 m) storm surge above mean sea level.

If America reconfigured its housing into DRVs, damage from natural disasters would be minimal.
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