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Old 07-23-2021, 08:55 AM
 
1,334 posts, read 1,675,887 times
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Is Zillow misreading the market or do they know something I don’t?

From the listing (https://www.zillow.com/homes/1651-Al...731927_zpid/):

Zillow bought the property last month for about $565K.

They did a quick fluff & flip in the obligatory gray décor and relisted this week for $640K.

The average asking price in zip 95747 for a house this size is about $500K. In fact, even Zillow’s “Zestimate” algorithm predicts this house is worth $501K. A similar property a few blocks away is under contract at a listing price of $493K Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site.

The white hot Sacramento regional market is showing signs of cooling down. There are more price reductions and fewer properties are selling over asking price.

I can’t imagine Zillow will recover their investment, since even the $565K they paid for the property looks inflated to me. So I don’t get it: is there a reasonable scenario in which this property will fetch about 25% over comps, or is Zillow’s market algorithm as maladjusted as their Zestimates?

(Note: I don’t have anything against Zillow; the pricing strategy on this house just seems crazy.)

Last edited by Yac; 07-27-2021 at 10:57 PM..
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Old 07-23-2021, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Near Sacramento
903 posts, read 583,980 times
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There are other similar homes priced near that range. So location probably plays a huge part in the wide range of prices. I guess Zillow will find out if their purchase/investment/sale works out.


Most homes in our area (also CA) have gone above list. But there are always a few surprises.



cd :O)
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Old 07-23-2021, 09:38 AM
 
12,022 posts, read 11,579,950 times
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Zillow has been losing money on flips. In 2019, they lost almost 37% per house.

Since they're in the flipping business, their estimates now may be skewed low.

Zillow's price estimates reflect cash offers
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Old 07-23-2021, 12:13 PM
 
8,005 posts, read 7,229,238 times
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I wonder if the recorded selling price will include credits back to Zillow. If so, they can manipulate the comps higher while creating a profit window within those comps.
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Old 07-23-2021, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
12,169 posts, read 8,032,304 times
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Zillow bought a townhome in NC for 306k. Listed it for 332k about a month ago, dropped it to 324k two weeks ago and 314k a week ago. Now its 309k. Supposively the offers they are getting are in high 200s, and they cant take those. Comparable homes sell for 295-300k. Dont know what Zillow did there.
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Old 07-23-2021, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Placer County
2,528 posts, read 2,782,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by semispherical View Post
Is Zillow misreading the market or do they know something I don’t?

From the listing (https://www.zillow.com/homes/1651-Al...731927_zpid/):

Zillow bought the property last month for about $565K.

They did a quick fluff & flip in the obligatory gray décor and relisted this week for $640K.

The average asking price in zip 95747 for a house this size is about $500K. In fact, even Zillow’s “Zestimate” algorithm predicts this house is worth $501K. A similar property a few blocks away is under contract at a listing price of $493K Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site.

The white hot Sacramento regional market is showing signs of cooling down. There are more price reductions and fewer properties are selling over asking price.

I can’t imagine Zillow will recover their investment, since even the $565K they paid for the property looks inflated to me. So I don’t get it: is there a reasonable scenario in which this property will fetch about 25% over comps, or is Zillow’s market algorithm as maladjusted as their Zestimates?

(Note: I don’t have anything against Zillow; the pricing strategy on this house just seems crazy.)
I've been following this too. I live in 95747 and have been floored at how fast the houses are flying off the market - like 2-3 days if priced right - and how many offers they are getting.

Not to mention being bombarded by realtors wanting to list my house. Plus the "Zestimate" for my house is higher than I expected by a lot. Craziness!

Roseville made Money Magazine's "Best Places to Live" list for 2020. I think it's also made the lists of other publications in a variety of categories but I don't have time right now to dig them up. I wonder if Zillow uses that as part of their algorithm? I'd like to know too.

Here's a link to the Money Magazine Roseville write-up if anyone is interested.

https://money.com/collection/best-pl...le-california/

Last edited by Yac; 07-27-2021 at 10:58 PM..
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Old 07-24-2021, 08:00 AM
 
1,334 posts, read 1,675,887 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by movinon View Post
I've been following this too. I live in 95747 and have been floored at how fast the houses are flying off the market - like 2-3 days if priced right - and how many offers they are getting.

Not to mention being bombarded by realtors wanting to list my house. Plus the "Zestimate" for my house is higher than I expected by a lot. Craziness!

Roseville made Money Magazine's "Best Places to Live" list for 2020. I think it's also made the lists of other publications in a variety of categories but I don't have time right now to dig them up. I wonder if Zillow uses that as part of their algorithm? I'd like to know too.

Here's a link to the Money Magazine Roseville write-up if anyone is interested.

https://money.com/collection/best-pl...le-california/
Yeah, I saw that article too. But if Roseville suddenly has become so desirable, why aren't the other sellers upping their asking prices by 25+% as well? I could understand (a little) if this was some crazy owner who was really convinced somehow his/her property is worth way more than the neighbors' houses, but Zillow is a giant real estate corporation that is supposed to know how to make money, not lose it. IMO this place will sit on the market for weeks/months (just like @masssachoicetts reports) until either the market increases to where they are (not likely!) or Zillow reduces the price. Meanwhile it's just sitting on the books and they are paying utilities and prop taxes. I wonder whether they will rent it if they don't get their price.
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Old 07-24-2021, 08:01 AM
 
1,334 posts, read 1,675,887 times
Reputation: 4232
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1insider View Post
I wonder if the recorded selling price will include credits back to Zillow. If so, they can manipulate the comps higher while creating a profit window within those comps.
What credits back to Zillow? You mean Zillow charged them 3% for an agency commission?
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Old 07-24-2021, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
43,311 posts, read 77,154,614 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1insider View Post
I wonder if the recorded selling price will include credits back to Zillow. If so, they can manipulate the comps higher while creating a profit window within those comps.

There was talk in our MLS last year about having credits to iBuyers included in sales from the MLS to them.
I guess it didn't go anywhere, but it would have provided some transparency into iBuyers artificially creating their own comps. That has been one of my concerns from the start.
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Old 07-24-2021, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Midwest
9,423 posts, read 11,176,605 times
Reputation: 17924
Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
Zillow bought a townhome in NC for 306k. Listed it for 332k about a month ago, dropped it to 324k two weeks ago and 314k a week ago. Now its 309k. Supposively the offers they are getting are in high 200s, and they cant take those. Comparable homes sell for 295-300k. Dont know what Zillow did there.
Maybe they're following the old rule in journalism: If you're going to be wrong, be consistent.
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