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Old 03-10-2022, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Bergen County, NJ
4,027 posts, read 3,631,840 times
Reputation: 5857

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOV View Post
Bigger is relative. "Twice the space" if you're in a 500 sf apartment, or even 1000 sf place, isn't a huge place.


Yep. I moved from a 800 sq ft apt to a 1500 sq ft “starter home”. Has all the space I need.
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Old 03-10-2022, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
10,966 posts, read 21,974,961 times
Reputation: 10659
Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOV View Post
Not quite. Supply took a hit. Lumber mills shut down, construction temporarily stopped, lumber prices shot up, from what I understand things like the glue needed for plywood or OSB were constricted so plywood was unavailable or awhile. Everyone expected the housing market to crash with the economy and acted accordingly. Except it didn't, at least not for more than a couple months. And, all of a sudden folks had more money in their pocket to make that move happen a little faster; they weren't commuting, travelling, or eating out like they had been.
...
And wildfires in the West destroyed a lot of homes that had to be rebuilt.
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Old 03-11-2022, 01:58 PM
 
1,221 posts, read 1,047,534 times
Reputation: 1017
Something isn't adding up:

Pre Covid - housing market steadily climbing, but only steadily. Things look balanced.

Covid/Post Covid - housing market on fire. 50 offers on one open house. Headlines all over the news about millenials reaching prime homebuying age. They said construction lagged for over a decade, thus the shortage of homes we have now.

I don't get it. If we had a shortage of houses in 2021, didn't we also have a shortage in 2019? Two years shouldn't make THAT big of a difference. And this seems to be nationwide, not just a handful of metros.
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Old 03-11-2022, 08:53 PM
 
Location: PNW
7,492 posts, read 3,223,452 times
Reputation: 10648
Quote:
Originally Posted by kishac View Post
Something isn't adding up:

Pre Covid - housing market steadily climbing, but only steadily. Things look balanced.

Covid/Post Covid - housing market on fire. 50 offers on one open house. Headlines all over the news about millenials reaching prime homebuying age. They said construction lagged for over a decade, thus the shortage of homes we have now.

I don't get it. If we had a shortage of houses in 2021, didn't we also have a shortage in 2019? Two years shouldn't make THAT big of a difference. And this seems to be nationwide, not just a handful of metros.

Where I live we were in an extreme frenzy before Covid. What happened with Covid is everything within 50-75 miles out gained dramatic amounts (50% to more than 100%). In my immediate area up about 35% (already close in to the main city). There was no inventory before Covid and there is still no inventory during Covid. What happened is a lot of houses that would have never been able to sell before went on the market (a lot of crxp that commanded good prices to high prices).
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Old 03-11-2022, 09:03 PM
 
Location: Sandy Eggo's North County
10,292 posts, read 6,818,131 times
Reputation: 16844
Quote:
Originally Posted by kishac View Post
50 offers on one open house.
Actually, there are 30 offers submitted, for each accepted offer.
Quote:
Headlines all over the news about millenials reaching prime homebuying age.
You're correct. The median age for first-time home buyers, is 33.
Quote:
They said construction lagged for over a decade, thus the shortage of homes we have now.
Since the "crash" of 2007, there have been 12 million new properties built.
Quote:

I don't get it. If we had a shortage of houses in 2021, didn't we also have a shortage in 2019? Two years shouldn't make THAT big of a difference. And this seems to be nationwide, not just a handful of metros.
Yes, this is nationwide...
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Old 03-16-2022, 09:13 AM
 
10,609 posts, read 5,641,736 times
Reputation: 18905
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote View Post
Very Funny Rational. Where is that? Aspen?
Park City UT (Deer Valley). I believe Aspen is more affluent than Park City.

Still, prices have gone nuts here. At these price points, it is all about asset class transfer rather than income; You transfer one type of asset (stock) into another type of asset (real estate); your personal income isn't as important. Thus, with the price of equities declining this calendar year, I'd expect some buyers to hold off.

For example, to buy a $10 Million house in December, 2021, when SPY (a popular S&P 500 index ETF) was at about $475, you'd sell about 21,052 shares and take the proceeds and buy the house (putting any capital gains taxes on the stock sale aside). Today, SPY is about $433, so you'd need to sell about 23,094 shares to generate the same $10 Million.

At least, that's my theory. But I could easily be wrong.
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Old 03-16-2022, 09:19 AM
 
10,609 posts, read 5,641,736 times
Reputation: 18905
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
I was just on vacation in South Florida with my family, and as I often do when I am on vacation somewhere, I was looking for potential real estate deals. I have to say, it is looking real frothy there right now, especially anywhere near the beaches. Tons of flippers. Homes bought for 1 or 2 million last year, now back on the market for 4 or 5 million. It's looking a lot like 2006 to me again, and I'm thinking 2 years from now there will be some pretty good foreclosure deals to be had. Time will tell.
One factor of the Great Recession was strategic default - when a home's market value fell markedly below its mortgage, some people did a strategic default.

Nowadays, I don't know anyone with a high end home that actually still has a mortgage.
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Old 03-16-2022, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
43,267 posts, read 77,063,738 times
Reputation: 45612
11% population growth in the U.S. since 2007.

34 million people, and they have to live somewhere.
With smaller family units trending, it takes more housing than it did in the past.
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Old 03-16-2022, 09:30 AM
 
10,609 posts, read 5,641,736 times
Reputation: 18905
Quote:
Originally Posted by WalkingLiberty1919D View Post
Why would anyone want all those windows? It's a lot to clean,
You write a check. It supports the local economy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WalkingLiberty1919D View Post
hard to place furniture
No it isn't. You have interior designers for that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WalkingLiberty1919D View Post
and maybe harder to heat and cool.
During the design stage of any custom home, you have engineers who perform detailed heating and cooling calculations to comply with energy efficiency regulations, and also to size your HVAC systems correctly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WalkingLiberty1919D View Post
But I suppose when you have that much money, you hire a cleaner and don't care about your electric/gas bill.
My wintertime gas bill is only about $1,000 per month, much of which is to heat my 150 foot driveway to melt the snow (we get about 400+ inches of snow per year). But this is just my vacation house, and I wasn't the original owner, so I didn't influence some of the energy tradeoffs in the design.

In my main house in Las Vegas, I went overboard on energy conservation. The exterior paint is actually a very high ceramic content coating that reflects infrared energy so as to reduce thermal heat gain in the summer (and it is wicked expensive). I have specially coated windows that do the same. I have 6 separate HVAC systems (7 if you count the garage) that operate 10 separate zones (11 if you count the garage) so I can dial in the temperature of the house by zone. Add in the 12kw of photovoltaic panels and my summertime cooling bill is under $100/month.
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Old 03-16-2022, 09:40 AM
 
10,609 posts, read 5,641,736 times
Reputation: 18905
Quote:
Originally Posted by WalkingLiberty1919D View Post
I am selling my house next month... well, putting it on the market.
Four years ago, when getting ready to list a house, I put a note on our local Nextdoor saying "I plan to list my house this coming summer. If you have any friends or relatives who have been thinking of moving into this neighborhood, please let them know."

Within 48 hours I had 50 people who expressed extreme interest in the house. About a half dozen were real estate agents with real clients (not just trolling for a listing). One said, "I have an out-of-state buyer who is desperate for this neighborhood; he can hop on a plane tomorrow and be here to see it the day after tomorrow. PLEASE don't sell it before then!" I opened the house that coming weekend and about 40 would-be buyers came through, and I had a dozen all cash offers shortly thereafter, and I sold to one of those people without ever listing it with an agent.

Such a buying frenzy shocked me. I was certain it was a harbinger of a bubble.

That house I sold? It's estimate on Zillow and Redfin is that it has doubled in value the sale price 4 years ago. Yeah, those estimates are flawed, especially with custom homes, but I don't doubt it.
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