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What exactly did you mis-read in the Chicago Tribune "Chicago-area prices fell 6.6%" or Midwest Business "Chicago home prices down 10%" that does not indicate a price decline?
Also if you had read all the articles (specifically the one from Crains), you would see that one thing that IS posting a median price gain is condos in Chicago-- which you seem to think are dropping worse than single family homes in the suburbs. If anything, the opposite is true.
Even to quote the article you cite:
"There's no doubt that single-family home prices have declined here and elsewhere. The carefully watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices last month showed that in metropolitan Chicago, prices of existing single-family homes fell 10 percent between the first quarter of 2007 and this year's first three months."
Price drops. There in print. Facts.
Your article states that "most homes are selling for at least 90 percent of the last listing price."
"Last listing price." After "a number of price reductions in most cases. "
What part of this isn't clear to you.
I'm glad you're having showings. It doesn't change the facts of the current market place.
Here is the link for your article. I use a Mac, so I use Command + C to copy the links and Command + V to paste it into a post.
What exactly did you mis-read in the Chicago Tribune "Chicago-area prices fell 6.6%" or Midwest Business "Chicago home prices down 10%" that does not indicate a price decline?
Also if you had read all the articles (specifically the one from Crains), you would see that one thing that IS posting a median price gain is condos in Chicago-- which you seem to think are dropping worse than single family homes in the suburbs. If anything, the opposite is true.
Even to quote the article you cite:
"There's no doubt that single-family home prices have declined here and elsewhere. The carefully watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices last month showed that in metropolitan Chicago, prices of existing single-family homes fell 10 percent between the first quarter of 2007 and this year's first three months."
Price drops. There in print. Facts.
Your article states that "most homes are selling for at least 90 percent of the last listing price."
"Last listing price." After "a number of price reductions in most cases. "
What part of this isn't clear to you.
I'm glad you're having showings. It doesn't change the facts of the current market place.
Here is the link for your article. I use a Mac, so I use Command + C to copy the links and Command + V to paste it into a post.
OK, one last try as I seem to have not explained myself from the beginning. IMO, my arguement, from the beginning, and on several posts is that we have come to that point. In other words, our home, back in 2005, could have easily sold for around $650,000 and in our neighborhood, they did. So I guess what I was trying to say, on this and other threads, is that we are already listed at the "10%" price drops and more, so buyers need to realize that it has corrected itself, for the most part, as most sellers are pricing their houses where they should be and at more reasonable prices.
I quote, "not everyone is depserate to sell and have taken the advise of their agents and become more reasonable when they set a listing price."
"they've made a number of price reductions in most cases"
I could go on and on, but my main point, form the beginning, was that buyers are still under the very disillusioned impression that things will fall and fall and fall, and my post that compared the housing market to the used car market was a perfect example. It just is not going to happen.
While I agree that those that paid over $650,000, 3 and 1/2 years ago have lost money, should they wish to sell or have to sell right now, this does not mean that anyone who has been in it for 10 years are going to see a price lower than what they paid then. Historically, it just has not happened. So if those that paid too much in 2005, want to sell in 2015, I am quite confident that they will have a decent appreciation, at any level.
A seller such as us, who has made price reductions and is, at this point, not trying to make the nice equity we once had, we will surely break even, at best, by being fairly priced and in it for 9 years.
For sake of arguement, since the housing market has dropped 10% since 07' to this last quarter of '08, how about thinking what I originally proposed; It's a GREAT time to buy and the prices are, in most all areas such as ours, really, really priced to sell and allow someone to have a beautiful home to live in and enjoy. And lets not forget the various times I have tried to bring up the interest rates and how they WILL, wihtout a doubt, get higher and higher, and "that home" the buyer held out for, thinking it will go cheaper, will lose it anyway as the interest rate will not allow them to buy it, if it's still available! My guess is, it won't be, for one reason or another, and that, none of us can predict.
What exactly did you mis-read in the Chicago Tribune "Chicago-area prices fell 6.6%" or Midwest Business "Chicago home prices down 10%" that does not indicate a price decline?
Also if you had read all the articles (specifically the one from Crains), you would see that one thing that IS posting a median price gain is condos in Chicago-- which you seem to think are dropping worse than single family homes in the suburbs. If anything, the opposite is true.
Even to quote the article you cite:
"There's no doubt that single-family home prices have declined here and elsewhere. The carefully watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices last month showed that in metropolitan Chicago, prices of existing single-family homes fell 10 percent between the first quarter of 2007 and this year's first three months."
Price drops. There in print. Facts.
Your article states that "most homes are selling for at least 90 percent of the last listing price."
"Last listing price." After "a number of price reductions in most cases. "
What part of this isn't clear to you.
I'm glad you're having showings. It doesn't change the facts of the current market place.
Here is the link for your article. I use a Mac, so I use Command + C to copy the links and Command + V to paste it into a post.
I could go on and on, but my main point, form the beginning, was that buyers are still under the very disillusioned impression that things will fall and fall and fall, and my post that compared the housing market to the used car market was a perfect example. It just is not going to happen.
Why? Why isn't going to happen? What makes you so sure that house prices cannot drop a great deal, especially when mortgage rates go to 10% and above? Of course, it's not a loss until you sell, but you're going to have a LOT of people who cannot or will not sell. They'll either walk away or stay in their homes.
"It's just not going to happen" holds no weight IMO as an argument.
So I guess what I was trying to say, on this and other threads, is that we are already listed at the "10%" price drops and more, so buyers need to realize that it has corrected itself, for the most part, as most sellers are pricing their houses where they should be and at more reasonable prices.
Why do you believe prices will not continue to fall? Are there suddenly a lot more buyers than sellers?
Quote:
I could go on and on, but my main point, form the beginning, was that buyers are still under the very disillusioned impression that things will fall and fall and fall, and my post that compared the housing market to the used car market was a perfect example. It just is not going to happen.
Then you're more than welcome to sell to the vast numbers of non-delusional buyers out there who will happily pay top dollar for your house. How many of those have you run across so far?
Quote:
A seller such as us, who has made price reductions and is, at this point, not trying to make the nice equity we once had, we will surely break even, at best, by being fairly priced and in it for 9 years.
Why do you think what you owe on the house or want to get out of it has anything to do with its market value? I understand you might need that to make your move-up plans work, but really, buyers don't care. They'll just move on to the half dozen other less expensive houses in your neighborhood.
Quote:
For sake of arguement, since the housing market has dropped 10% since 07' to this last quarter of '08, how about thinking what I originally proposed; It's a GREAT time to buy and the prices are, in most all areas such as ours, really, really priced to sell and allow someone to have a beautiful home to live in and enjoy.
Because it's not truly a good time to buy if prices are continuing to decline. What evidence do you have that after dropping 10%, prices are going to suddenly stabilize just in time for you to sell your house?
The stats I've seen show that the price to income ratio in the Chicago area jumped up from 2.8x to 4x salary since about 2003 - a 35-40% jump. Why do you think a 7-10% drop is suddenly the bottom of the market?
Our home, back in 2005, could have easily sold for around $650,000 and in our neighborhood, they did. So I guess what I was trying to say, on this and other threads, is that we are already listed at the "10%" price drops and more
I could go on and on, but my main point, form the beginning, was that buyers are still under the very disillusioned impression that things will fall and fall and fall
For sake of arguement, since the housing market has dropped 10% since 07' to this last quarter of '08, how about thinking what I originally proposed; It's a GREAT time to buy
Your home may be priced 10% below what it would have sold for in 2005, but the fact is the market IS STILL FALLING (and therefore, so is your house). Until Case/Shiller, National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae or some other reputable source reports figures that show stability in the Chicago area market, the data show the market is STILL FALLING.
Every month, the statistics are getting worse-- even in Chicago.
Yes, the market has dropped 10%. But every economic indicator is showing it has more to go. Some say 5%. Some say 10%. Some say more. No one has a crystal ball, but NO ONE REPUTABLE has predicted stability until at least the second half of 2009.
So, if you're a buyer of a $600k house, 10% is a difference of $60k in the principal, which adds up to about $130k in mortgage payments over the life of the loan. Still think it's "a great time to buy"? I'd prefer to put that money in a college fund or retirement fund.
And I know interest rates are going up. Which will push up monthly mortgage payments. Which will PUSH DOWN asking prices, because in the end, all anyone looks at is whether or not they can afford the monthly payment.
As for making your money back by 2015, that's a possibility. But certainly not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination, given the history of the housing markets and the scale of the current run-up (as illustrated in this chart of the Case/Shiller Index dating back to 1890):
When you also factor in this data, from Credit Suisse, showing not only the current subprime problems, but also the looming option ARM loan resets, it's clear this market is not getting better any time soon:
I'm not saying anyone is absolutely right or wrong, but I am saying a Pollyanna "buy now" attitude is simplistic at best and financially reckless at worst. Don't blame buyers if they don't want to jump into this mess.
I do sincerely wish you luck with your home sale. I just wish you'd stop blaming the media and prospective buyers for the current market reality. Prices really are dropping. And it's really not their fault.
As for the postings in "We just got out. But so sad," once again you seem to be very selective in your reading. The thread is based on the point that homes are continuing to drop in value, even after sellers from those neighborhoods have sold at a loss. You conveniently ignore that and focus on one post that shows one person, in one gated community, got a house that MAY prove to have been a bargain. As for claims that someone will buy a house, put some work into it and make a huge profit on it in 5-10 years? I have a bridge I'd buy in Brooklyn before I'd believe that. Let them post again when the profit is in the bank.
The stats I've seen show that the price to income ratio in the Chicago area jumped up from 2.8x to 4x salary since about 2003 - a 35-40% jump. Why do you think a 7-10% drop is suddenly the bottom of the market? /Quote
The closest thing to a crystal ball is the fact quoted above. If lenders go back to the traditional formulas, we WILL see further drops in sale prices. Home prices have far outpaced median income in most areas.
I am going to have to side with FMV on one thing. Interest rates are not going to 10% for mortgage, at least traditional 30 year mortgages with 20% down or even FHA loans. I can see rates going from 6.5% now to maybe 7-8%.
I do believe values in Chicago will drop 10-15% by 2010, maybe more. FMV will not get what they would have gotten in 2005, 2006, or 2007 or even the beginning of 2008 for their house and will need to reduce their asking price to market levels in order to get it sold. If they don't, they will just continue to ride the market down. Based upon what I know, they will need to price it around $500M to get it sold. Whether or not they do this is up to them. If they wait until the bottom, they may have to sell it for $450M. $500M in 2008 is better than $450M in 2010, JMHO.
OK, one last try as I seem to have not explained myself from the beginning. IMO, my arguement, from the beginning, and on several posts is that we have come to that point. In other words, our home, back in 2005, could have easily sold for around $650,000 and in our neighborhood, they did. So I guess what I was trying to say, on this and other threads, is that we are already listed at the "10%" price drops and more, so buyers need to realize that it has corrected itself, for the most part, as most sellers are pricing their houses where they should be and at more reasonable prices.
I quote, "not everyone is depserate to sell and have taken the advise of their agents and become more reasonable when they set a listing price."
"they've made a number of price reductions in most cases"
I could go on and on, but my main point, form the beginning, was that buyers are still under the very disillusioned impression that things will fall and fall and fall, and my post that compared the housing market to the used car market was a perfect example. It just is not going to happen.
While I agree that those that paid over $650,000, 3 and 1/2 years ago have lost money, should they wish to sell or have to sell right now, this does not mean that anyone who has been in it for 10 years are going to see a price lower than what they paid then. Historically, it just has not happened. So if those that paid too much in 2005, want to sell in 2015, I am quite confident that they will have a decent appreciation, at any level.
A seller such as us, who has made price reductions and is, at this point, not trying to make the nice equity we once had, we will surely break even, at best, by being fairly priced and in it for 9 years.
For sake of arguement, since the housing market has dropped 10% since 07' to this last quarter of '08, how about thinking what I originally proposed; It's a GREAT time to buy and the prices are, in most all areas such as ours, really, really priced to sell and allow someone to have a beautiful home to live in and enjoy. And lets not forget the various times I have tried to bring up the interest rates and how they WILL, wihtout a doubt, get higher and higher, and "that home" the buyer held out for, thinking it will go cheaper, will lose it anyway as the interest rate will not allow them to buy it, if it's still available! My guess is, it won't be, for one reason or another, and that, none of us can predict.
De NILE...not just a river in Egypt.
Is there some kind of magic 'stop loss' at 10% or what??
Quote:
it has corrected itself
Says who...you, the NAR and a few optimistic agents working for a commission check??
Is there some kind of magic 'stop loss' at 10% or what??
Says who...you, the NAR and a few optimistic agents working for a commission check??
Sales, comps, and moving inventory, IN OUR AREA! I'd say we don't need the commission checks to sway us (sellers), one way or another. The sellers are the ones who pay it. I guess 10% was just our "lucky number". I still don't have that crystal ball, and as mentioned, sellers on the current market, in OUR area, have already conformed to listing their houses at less amounts than they would have in a normal, good market. Buyers have realized this and are buying them now, realizing all involved are being reasonable and everyone is happy. I'm glad you don't live near that river you speak of either or you might "drown" in your pessimism in the De~Nile!
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We ain't gonna see 10% interest
