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what? do you really believe that it is in the interests of the bank to drive DOWN real estate prices? i'm sorry olecapt but if you believe that then you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. if anything, the banks are holding on to as much as possible thanks to an influx of cash from the tarp.
I am reporting actuals. Facts. Not conjecture. 75% of the sales are REOs. Another 10% are shorts. The REOs are selling about 20% below the nonREOs.
There are about 6,000 REOs in inventory. We sell about 2,000 REOs a month...so a three month supply of REOs. Also note that sales are at levels very close to the highest ever.
Those are the facts. I am sorry they don't fit your preconceptions but they are still the facts.
The lenders are not holding on to anything. They are moving REPOs through the system from foreclosure to resale in less than 90 days mostly. The inventory is pretty much stable.
Bank owned and not on the market is much less than the inventory on the market.
you folk are welcome to whatever opinion you like but the facts in Las Vegas simply are what they are and do not support your views.
The real estate market may shoot up again next year and I will be shut out again, maybe indefinitely. (I have a moderate income, and I don't think that is going to change. I saved my down payment slowly!!)
Every indication points to a continued drop in home prices nationwide, in which case buying now would;
1) Wipe out your entire, hard-earned, down payment.
2) Prohibit you from buying MORE house for LESS money.
I've waited 8 years to buy too. I will NOT put my REAL money down in competition against the BOGUS money that drove RE prices to these ridiculous heights. When I buy -IF I buy- it'll be when home prices are back in line with actual salaries. There's really no mystery to it, although RE agents of course will argue til they're blue in the face that "you can't time the bottom" the fact is the bottom times itself when RE values come back into line with actual earnings.
Hi, everybody. It's Sunday at one PM, and I spent another sleepless night. Darn. Okay--here's what I did--I called the realtor and told her to delay putting in the offer until the idea settles better with me.
(If you remember--the sellers agent called and asked me to lowball. I did, at 20% below asking. But my realtor hasn't sent the offer in yet)
I soon as I did that--I thought oh, noooo--it's the perfect house!!!
What to do. If I lowball even more--I won't get the house, that's for sure. But I'm afraid that housing might plummet next year.
I will admit I am a fearful person, and I understand that might be annoying. (It's nice to do this anonymously!)
My fears pro making the offer:
This house is perfect. Location, style, everything. I've been shut out of the real estate market for six years (by the bubble). The real estate market may shoot up again next year and I will be shut out again, maybe indefinitely. (I have a moderate income, and I don't think that is going to change. I saved my down payment slowly!!) If the house holds its value (ie 20% below asking, the amount I would be paying) it will be a wonderful place for me to live.
My fears con making the offer:
The housing market in this neighborhood might revert to be more in line with incomes, meaning the house might sell again for about 90-100K, as it did in 2000. I'd lose 60K, huge for me. If some financial forecasters are right--the market might never bounce back if it drops (adjusted for inflation) because the conditions that created the bubble are unique.
I could just go ahead and make an offer 25-30% down, but that's akin to not making an offer at all, I suppose.
Any thoughts? Maybe I'm one of those people who just shouldn't buy a house ... But it is so perfect ...
The reason I care if I lose all my money is that selling the house and at least recovering what I put in is going to be part of my retirement. I plan to move away from this high cost of living state when I retire. It's been hard-going saving for retirement, and now my 401 K is down, and money I put in a mutual fund at 12,000 is way down ...
Sorry you are losing sleep over this-- I can totally understand. If we ever get to the point of making an offer, I'll probably lose sleep right up until we move in.
As much as it might surprise some posters on this forum, I'm going to offer a pro-buying argument. Inflation.
Currently, we're in a deflationary environment, but the government is throwing a lot of money around. In a few-- years??-- inflation could be a real factor. And long before that, mortgage interest rates could go up to "traditional" double digit levels.
I'm not saying this is definitely going to happen. But it's a piece of the decision puzzle to research and factor in.
I never lose sleep wondering if prices will continue to drop. In my area, that's a given. And when housing prices do turn, they turn slowly, so you have time to react. I do worry about mortgage rates and inflation, though. Those can change a lot more quickly.
Just food for thought.
Whatever you decide to do, don't look back. This is probably one of the only times when your guess truly is as good as anyone's.
The house for sale in your example is worth no more than $100K.....and probably less in 95% of the RE markets.
Karen59....if they don't take your offer, just wait and they'll be back. Be patient, wait it out for a while and when they do come back, offer even less since the market is going nowhere but down.....BIG TIME.
LOL. okay.. whatever.. you obviously don't get the point of my post..
I was pulling numbers of of the air.. their not REAL numbers.. in any particular market.
And if houses are selling in the neighborhood at $200K simply because YOU say it's worth a $100K doesn't make it so..
Hi, everybody. It's Sunday at one PM, and I spent another sleepless night. Darn. Okay--here's what I did--I called the realtor and told her to delay putting in the offer until the idea settles better with me.
(If you remember--the sellers agent called and asked me to lowball. I did, at 20% below asking. But my realtor hasn't sent the offer in yet)
I soon as I did that--I thought oh, noooo--it's the perfect house!!!
What to do. If I lowball even more--I won't get the house, that's for sure. But I'm afraid that housing might plummet next year.
I will admit I am a fearful person, and I understand that might be annoying. (It's nice to do this anonymously!)
My fears pro making the offer:
This house is perfect. Location, style, everything. I've been shut out of the real estate market for six years (by the bubble). The real estate market may shoot up again next year and I will be shut out again, maybe indefinitely. (I have a moderate income, and I don't think that is going to change. I saved my down payment slowly!!) If the house holds its value (ie 20% below asking, the amount I would be paying) it will be a wonderful place for me to live.
My fears con making the offer:
The housing market in this neighborhood might revert to be more in line with incomes, meaning the house might sell again for about 90-100K, as it did in 2000. I'd lose 60K, huge for me. If some financial forecasters are right--the market might never bounce back if it drops (adjusted for inflation) because the conditions that created the bubble are unique.
I could just go ahead and make an offer 25-30% down, but that's akin to not making an offer at all, I suppose.
Any thoughts? Maybe I'm one of those people who just shouldn't buy a house ... But it is so perfect ...
The reason I care if I lose all my money is that selling the house and at least recovering what I put in is going to be part of my retirement. I plan to move away from this high cost of living state when I retire. It's been hard-going saving for retirement, and now my 401 K is down, and money I put in a mutual fund at 12,000 is way down ...
If you are THAT jittery about it.. then you shouldn't be buyign a house..and find some safe investments to sock your money into until you are comfortable.
Because again.. you can't buy the house based on where you THINK the numbers may be a year from now no more than a seller can price the house where they think it will sell a year from now.
You need to take the numbers that houses like that are going for in your market and base your offer on that.. maybe 5 or 10% less, if you are comfortable.. but you can't serioulsly expect a seller to unload the house for the percentage less you would think the market will be a year from now. Especially if their asking price is in true range of what houses like theirs are selling for.
And .. if you do buy the house youll just worry worry worry and every news you hear about the market will make you flinch..
I suggest , if the offer you already put in isn't accepted.. then hold off.. wait and see what the market does and when you feel comfortable that it's hit the bottom.. then make your move..
I was pulling numbers of of the air.. their not REAL numbers.. in any particular market.
Well at least it beats pulling numbers out of your ***, like most other realtors do.
May I suggest we keep these exchanges meaningful by using REAL numbers instead ?
Well at least it beats pulling numbers out of your ***, like most other realtors do.
May I suggest we keep these exchanges meaningful by using REAL numbers instead ?
Touchy are we.
First.. I was illustrating a point.. numbers were really irrelevent.. wasn't the crux of the post in the first place
Also.. you can't use numbers on a national forum because it's all different and relative to where you live locally. For example..If I used numbers I knew from the market I know (LI , NY) it would be meaningless to you.. because starter homes in this current market are in the $300K range in the neighborhood I moved from (and 2 years ago it was in teh mid 400's) but for yoru market may mean something else completely (liek where I live now.. I can get a few acres with a new home in the 300's).
So again.. the number are irrelevent and wasn't the point anyway
Update. When I heard that my realtor never submitted an offer, I felt relieved and slept for two hours.
It looks like I am not ready to buy, huh? Well--I guess you have to know yourself. I really didn't know this until I tried. The economy and all the talk about it has me too worried, apparently, because I didn't feel this way last summer when I made some offers--then the whole thing was pretty exciting (until I heard that they rejected my offers!)
Someone less risk averse that me will probably make a lot of money in this down turn.
It is all moot, because my realtor told me they won't accept a 'very' low ball (20% off) and she has been right every step of the way. (They did say: make an offer! however)
This house is in Northern Jersey, where prices have held pretty steady since they shot up. It seems to me they really haven't dropped at all since the higher prices of two years ago. (Maybe a little) It is in an urban area (outside Newark), but still very nice. I have been reading on the Jersey site that because so many people lost jobs on Wall Street, the prices in North Jersey may fall over the next year. So maybe this time next year I will look again.
and have someone come in and insult you with a lowball offer.. lets see how you feel then!!!!
I think you're taking all this too personally.
This is not about feelings, nobody is "insulting" anyone...it is a property and the market will bear some value. This value is subjective to each individual...you think your property is worth x, someone else believes it is worth x/2 so what? The buyer may think you have an inflated sense of what your home is worth, the seller of course thinks the opposite. The buyer is not insulting you personally by offering what he thinks is the value of the property. Why take it personally?
I am thinking of selling my car, the Blue Book says 8k but the economy is very bad and cars are not selling at all so if someone offers 5k or 6k should I feel insulted? Of course not! I will just consider what other offers are on the table and decide accordingly.
I would feel insulted if he called me an a-hole, but if he just made a lowball offer what is there to get insulted about? It's all business.
First.. I was illustrating a point.. numbers were really irrelevent.. wasn't the crux of the post in the first place
Also.. you can't use numbers on a national forum because it's all different and relative to where you live locally. For example..If I used numbers I knew from the market I know (LI , NY) it would be meaningless to you.. because starter homes in this current market are in the $300K range in the neighborhood I moved from (and 2 years ago it was in teh mid 400's) but for yoru market may mean something else completely (liek where I live now.. I can get a few acres with a new home in the 300's).
So again.. the number are irrelevent and wasn't the point anyway
Lol. I get it. But actually numbers are STILL quite relevant; for example, buyers should never spend over 30%-40% of their gross incomes towards mortgage costs. THAT will always remain a fundamental fact.
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Darn. Okay--here's what I did--I called the realtor and told her to delay putting in the offer until the idea settles better with me.
