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Do these towns have financial or econonic advisers? Odds are they do.
So you want the financial or economic adviser for a town, who is paid by the town, to tell people NOT to buy a home in that town?
And you think real estate agents are unbiased? C'mon, if there is one thing that Lawrence Yun should be teaching people is that who pays you matters. Yun is an economist and can't get close to the market with a dartboard.
While I don't disagree that entry standards into real estate are pathetic (Oregon is the whopping 120 hours and passing a 200 question test), but if you put that much stock into someone just because they have a degree in something, you will be lead astray anyway.
All that matters is the facts. The data is in front of agents, economists, whomever. It's not brain surgery to look at the data and see where the trend is. Really it's not. Do I think that basic statistics and analysis should be taught to real estate agents? Absolutely, but the data doesn't lie. Only the people analyzing/interpreting the data do.
Last edited by Silverfall; 08-12-2008 at 04:21 PM..
Reason: typo
So you want the financial or economic adviser for a town, who is paid by the town, to tell people NOT to buy a home in that town?
Believe it or not, there are plenty of independent advisers that you pay for their advice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverfall
While I don't disagree that entry standards into real estate are pathetic (Oregon is the whopping 120 hours and passing a 200 question test), but if you put that much stock into someone just because they have a degree in something, you will be lead astray anyway.
It's not the degree, it's the education, peer reviews, and qualifications.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverfall
All that matters is the facts. The data is in front of agents, economists, whomever. It's not brain surgery to look at the data and see where the trend is. Really it's not. Do I think that basic statistics and analysis should be taught to real estate agents? Absolutely, but the data doesn't lie. Only the people analyzing/interpreting the data do.
Hey, we agree on something. What it boils down to for me is the qualifications of who you get your advice from.
Absolutely, but the data doesn't lie. Only the people analyzing/interpreting the data do.
In my experience, lying with data starts right at the data gathering and aggregation stage. It's extremely easy to gather the info you want people to see, and delete or hide the stuff you don't want them to see. I had to quit more than one computer contract when the business owner wanted me to "cook the books" for him at the data level. (Especially in industries that use short term credit on accounts receivables, or in factoring). Sorry, but I'm not going to be an accessory to fraud.
This is one of the major problems behind the credit crunch. Banks can't trust each other because they can't easily see down into the lower levels of data-- only the analysis, only the aggregate. God only knows how "cooked" most of the mortgages in America really are.
In my experience, lying with data starts right at the data gathering and aggregation stage. It's extremely easy to gather the info you want people to see, and delete or hide the stuff you don't want them to see. I had to quit more than one computer contract when the business owner wanted me to "cook the books" for him at the data level. (Especially in industries that use short term credit on accounts receivables, or in factoring). Sorry, but I'm not going to be an accessory to fraud.
This is one of the major problems behind the credit crunch. Banks can't trust each other because they can't easily see down into the lower levels of data-- only the analysis, only the aggregate. God only knows how "cooked" most of the mortgages in America really are.
Funny how so many people prefer to trust the media's interpretation of 'the data' or 'the facts' as if there were no possible bias connected to this being an election year. The worse the country looks, the more attractive 'change' becomes...whose side do you think CNN's anchors are on?
In my experience, lying with data starts right at the data gathering and aggregation stage. It's extremely easy to gather the info you want people to see, and delete or hide the stuff you don't want them to see. I had to quit more than one computer contract when the business owner wanted me to "cook the books" for him at the data level. (Especially in industries that use short term credit on accounts receivables, or in factoring). Sorry, but I'm not going to be an accessory to fraud.
This is one of the major problems behind the credit crunch. Banks can't trust each other because they can't easily see down into the lower levels of data-- only the analysis, only the aggregate. God only knows how "cooked" most of the mortgages in America really are.
I agree with this which is why who is interpreting the data is so important. It's also why I run my own numbers. I want to see the raw data.
It's also how agents buy listings. They pull the comps they want vs. all the comps and voila the home should sell for $50,000 more than any other agent says it will...Hmmm...
The issues in real estate are multifaced there is no disagreement from me on that. I do however think that some agents are more than capable of running accurate market reports for consumers and actually care about being good at what they do. Really...they do exist!
Is that the 'meaning' your book gave, or your own interpretation?
This is what the book says, its not just his interpretation. The book is talking about the importance of incentives (in fact almost the whole book is about this topic in a around about way). For the buyer/seller the incentive structure of a real estate agent is stacked against them. As a result few real estate agents act truly in their clients best interest. The book goes become mere conjecture though and cites data that supports the theory. Anyhow, like the sell price the real estate agent has very little incentive to tell people that now is not a "good time to buy".
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aarons
do these towns have financial or econonic advisers? Odds are they do.
it's even easier to get a series 6 securities license. No experience necessary, just a firm willing to sponsor you. Same with an insurance license. Pass the test and you're in. There's your financial adviser. I used to have a series 7 license, but to become a registered investment adviser all i had to do is fill out an application! This is the qualification necessary to manage a mutual fund!
any economists worth their degree will quickly be able to tell you whether it is safe to buy a home in a town or community simply based on supply and demand. When supply is up, and demand is down, prices will fall. When supply is down and demand is up, prices will rise.
show me an economist who is actively working at studying a town or community. How do they make a living? Oh by the way, there is no licensure requirement to be called an economist. This may explain larry yun.
although a real estate agent might feel that they are capable of giving out advice on the market conditions of an area, the simple fact is that the lack any qualification. When the bar is set so low to have a real estate license, even real estate agents with advanced degrees will be compared against other with geds.
they are far more qualified than you are because they are in the business of knowing what the local market is. Most of us are in it just about every single day. Spend 4 months looking at every piece of property on the market in a community and you'll know more than most people. Do it for 4 years and you will have more detailed knowledge than anyone else. You have yet to give us any of your qualifications for making your statements.
the sad fact is that licensing standards for real estate agents is extremely low. A quick google search revealed that to become a real estate agent in florida requires 63 hours of classes and a ged. Texas doesn't even require the ged.
see my comments about securities industry.
there's a reason why it's hard to become an economist, lawyer, or accountant. If everyone with a generic education and a few hours of free time a week could become one, none of their jobs would be taken seriously.
no doubt some professions require a long time in a formal education environment. My lawyer is brilliant, but i've seen others that couldn't find their backside with either hand. My doctor father-in-law was constantly being taken by investment schemes. He was a great doctor, but like many educated people he considered himself an expert at a lot of things he really wasn't that good at.
Seriously, what profession are you in? Are there any charlatans in your profession?
I do however think that some agents are more than capable of running accurate market reports for consumers and actually care about being good at what they do. Really...they do exist!
I agree. There's no question in my mind that some agents are honest, caring, and adept at acquiring/interpreting economic data. I think I've met at least 2. It's sad that the number isn't bigger, but that's partly due to the low barriers to entry in this profession, and the commission compensation structure, IMO. I often find agents who are caring, some who are honest, and very few with good research and analysis skills. After all, if you were a professional-level business data analyst, you might be able to make more money with far less expense and hassle working in that field, versus real estate. Last time I heard, the average agent makes something like $20,000. And I bet a data analyst could make at least $40k.
That is, on the residential side. I imagine commercial agents have to be able to wave some numbers at people and do a Powerpoint dog and pony show. So... I guess I'm saying the more high-powered whiz-bang number crunchers are more likely to be found in the "financial community," not necessarily because they are better, but because they can convince others they are better, and therefore convince wallets to open wider.
It will be interesting to see if Wall Street types start drifting into your turf, as the Financial Apocalypse continues.
I done got me this here e-male today telling me that I can buy me a P-H-D. Cheaper than cheap.
Yessirree, a sheepskin all fer my own.
Prove to the hole world I'm an edjucated and ethikal sort of feller.
Hang it on the wall in one of them there dandy black frames from Target, and you can call me "DOCTOR Mike the Realtor."
Alternatively, I think gratuitously placing tangential and completely irrelevant barriers into the licensing process would be useful to limit reasonable access to hardworking and intelligent people of good character and will do little or nothing to ensure ethical dealings or to eliminate dedicated crooks and scum.
I agree. You do not need a 4 year degree or post graduate to work as a REA. It's a humble profession so the barrier should be too. We are talking about selling used homes here.
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What it boils down to for me is the qualifications of who you get your advice from.
I'm a-goin' to skool!! Fer REEL Estate!
