Housing bottom not till 3rd quarter of 2009 according to Cramer (foreclosure, percent)
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Trying to guess what quarter the national housing market will bottom is pretty useless. There are so many variables with values that are currently unknown.
I predict that we are at bottom and by Spring of 09... prices will begin to rise again and interest rates will be at 7 to 8 percent : ) I'll check back in then and see if my prediction is right or not.
I saw a bit of the Cramer call, and it was entertaining. With his attention to household formation, the birthrate, immigration, price, and reduction of new homes being built he is painting a more balanced picture of the state of housing. We all know the other side of the equation, foreclosure and the deteriorating neighborhood conditions that they cause. Job loss initially in construction but spreading into supporting industries. The ying and the yang.
The one keystone to Cramer's prediction is the nationalizing of Freddy and Fanny. I don't know how I feel about that. I'd been waiting for the news that Freddy and Fanny would be carving themselves up and selling off pieces in order to maintain their core business. So the first benchmark of the Cramer call is what happens to Freddy and Fanny. The watch is on, see ya 308 days.
Im not sure that I would nationalize Fannie or Freddie either, that being said if something doesnt happen to support the agencies its going to get a LOT worse before it gets better.
While I enjoy Cramer from time to time, calling the bottom nationally is about the same (in my book) as talking about national average home prices: some markets average home prices are more than double the national average and some markets are less. IMO (and I work primarily with institutional real estate nationally and not SF homes) some markets have a lot further to go while other markets have already stablized.
For my market, I'd say it's probably pretty accurate (unless something major happens), but I think there will be a plateau after that. Not sure how much "up" there will be.
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
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Is Cramer his first name or last name? I like a guy who has "street cred".
As much as I like charts and graphs, The illiquid real estate market doesn't show those cool spikes up and down like a stock chart does. It's more like a roller coaster track. I'm seeing some firmness locally with prices feeling like they're very near the bottom.
I'm buying a 2 1/2 acre multi-family piece of land that was originally listed for over $400K for 70K from the bank. I'm not seeing much downside at this price.
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