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Old 01-20-2009, 11:12 AM
 
19,046 posts, read 25,192,725 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocean2026 View Post
If it were such a good time to buy - a real estate agent wouldn't need to use this to drum up business.
Most projections show more price declines in the coming year. Detroit, Las Vegas, South Florida,parts of California can easily lose another 15% this year- most of your down payment so a buyer in those places could be underwater in one year. Maybe the OP will then come in and post "good time to sell" lol
Hi there, I'm just learning about all this stuff but what does the bolded here mean? How does value of the home affect the buyer after it's purchased? Thanks!
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Old 01-20-2009, 11:29 AM
SXN
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humboldt1 View Post
FMV,

ILoveLoganSquare is calling for a price bottom in Chicago by Sept 09. What do you think?

I am still sticking with early to mid 2010 for price bottom in Chicago.
I don't see how anyone can characterize all of Chicago uniformly. I might agree that the bottom occurs for Gold Coast and the north side - possibly. But South Loop will not bottum out anytime soon. Not with so many condos coming online in the next year or two. My guess is, that at least half of the new condo developments in south loop become rental within the next two years. Either that or they foreclose. I've been looking at properties in South Loop, and so many flippers are already taking a huge loss. I've had agents and developers solicit me with a ton of incentives to buy down there. I think they are getting desparate. I'm not noticing the same thing happening on the north side of the loop.
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Old 01-20-2009, 11:31 AM
 
1,422 posts, read 2,303,650 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Braunwyn View Post
Hi there, I'm just learning about all this stuff but what does the bolded here mean? How does value of the home affect the buyer after it's purchased? Thanks!

Ummmmmmmmmmmmm - let's say you paid $250K for a house.

It's now worth $150K

You borrowed $200K, you put down a $50K deposit/down payment.

So you're now showing negative equity - ie: you OWE more than the home is worth. You're "underwater" as they say.

In other words, on paper, you've lost the $50K you put down. If you have to sell, you've crystalised that loss. In other words, it's a REAL loss.

If the value falls even further to $100K then on paper you've lost your $50K downpayment plus you still owe the lender $200K.

So you've lost $100K on paper.

However, if in 3 years the house is worth $300K then "on paper" you've made a $50K profit.


But you'll only make that profit "real" if you sell.

Conversely you'll only make that loss "real" if you sell.

Hence property should be viewed as a long term investment.


The post you referred to is effectively saying that if values in those areas drop by another 15% then those buyers that bought now might see the value of their downpayment evaporate.
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Old 01-20-2009, 11:53 AM
 
1,989 posts, read 4,466,032 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Braunwyn View Post
Hi there, I'm just learning about all this stuff but what does the bolded here mean? How does value of the home affect the buyer after it's purchased? Thanks!
Regarding "real" gains or losses that occur only when you sell: If you buy and the paper value drops another 15%, that means it has to climb 15% again before you're at break-even. Traditionally, without a bubble or an economic crisis effecting things, it would take about 5 years to regain that "loss" and begin at zero to start actual gains.

To put it more concisely: A realtor friend once told me the best way to get a good price when you sell is to get a good price when you buy.
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Old 01-20-2009, 11:56 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
43,291 posts, read 77,115,925 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cohdane View Post
Regarding "real" gains or losses that occur only when you sell: If you buy and the paper value drops another 15%, that means it has to climb 15% again before you're at break-even. Traditionally, without a bubble or an economic crisis effecting things, it would take about 5 years to regain that "loss" and begin at zero to start actual gains.

To put it more concisely: A realtor friend once told me the best way to get a good price when you sell is to get a good price when you buy.
If you go down 15%, you need to make 18% +/- to break even.

But, yes, you make most of your money in real estate on the Buy end.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:02 PM
 
Location: NorthTexas
634 posts, read 1,558,705 times
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I think that the point about home buying that many people don't get is that with all the numbers, charts, studies, analysis, etc. the overriding truth is that buying a home is a long term commitment. The value will fluctuate, but in the long run it is a better investment than renting. That being said unfortunatly in this global world we are often transferred to another state for our job, etc and may not be able to stay in our house, but that does not mean that if you still love your home then keep it, it is a long term investment that you can live in! I am always leary of people who want to make a home buying decision based on short term goals, this never seems to turn out well.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:56 PM
 
106,671 posts, read 108,833,673 times
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Be careful making a blanket statement about buying maybe a better investment then renting.... that may or may not be true. in fact i found the opposite to be true for me... read the article i had posted about that exact debate....if you need me to re-post ill be glad to
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:12 PM
 
Location: NorthTexas
634 posts, read 1,558,705 times
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Default yes mathjak

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Be careful making a blanket statement about buying maybe a better investment then renting.... that may or may not be true. in fact i found the opposite to be true for me... read the article i had posted about that exact debate....if you need me to re-post ill be glad to

Could you repost that? I would like to hear that point of view.
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:37 PM
 
575 posts, read 1,778,253 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EllenArlingtonPark View Post
I think that the point about home buying that many people don't get is that with all the numbers, charts, studies, analysis, etc. the overriding truth is that buying a home is a long term commitment. The value will fluctuate, but in the long run it is a better investment than renting. That being said unfortunatly in this global world we are often transferred to another state for our job, etc and may not be able to stay in our house, but that does not mean that if you still love your home then keep it, it is a long term investment that you can live in! I am always leary of people who want to make a home buying decision based on short term goals, this never seems to turn out well.

Yes, but the economy and real estate market being what they are... even if you hold onto a property long term the numbers don't work out so well for some of us right now. I guess that's one RE cliche' I can agree with: all RE is local.

Check out this buy vs rent calculator:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/bu..._GRAPHIC.html#

While it's certainly not the ultimate authority, it's interesting.

When I plug in the numbers for my situation/location it says it's never better to buy than to rent, and that's over 30 years. Obviously things can and do change. In fact I hope the numbers for my location change in the next few years since I'd like to buy again. But there's no way I'm even thinking about it right now.
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:54 PM
 
106,671 posts, read 108,833,673 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EllenArlingtonPark View Post
Could you repost that? I would like to hear that point of view.
i posted this a few times but the subject keeps coming up:





although we call a home an appreciating asset its part of a much larger picture called your overall housing costs... because you live in it these costs are all paid by you and accumulate over a lifetime unlike rental property or investment property which you pay off the income . . the rise of the house in value over time merely offets the giant lifetime expenses of all the costs a homeowner has for the priveledge of owning that home..... your taxes, mortgage interest, repairs,renovation,maintaince,landscaping,insuranc e ,the gardner,the snow plow guy, the list goes on and on.

a lifetime in housing costs are really measured in who lost the least the buyer or the renter, not who made the most as those expenses whether you rent or buy usually eclipse the value of home appreciation over a lifetime. it never stops accumulating even if you sell a home and buy another... like rent just keep adding it all up over a lifetime.

soooooooo if your buying a house think of it as a consumption item, not an investment, think of it as a collector does of fine art, or your jewelry. its something you use and consume and costs you money. the fact a home rises may or may not mitigate the expenses to put you ahead of renting

buy a home for all the things a home can give you (good or bad)

the joy of owning something
doing as you please
the security of owning a payed off home
relatively fixed costs compared to renting

the fun of renovating and changing

etc

while technically a renter appears to be at a dis-advantage because hes not buying anything with his rent that may not be true in alot of areas or situations . here in the greater new york area the cost between renting and buying initially is 1/3 to 1/2 less a month and no massive down payment... it takes about a decade for the rent to equal the costs of buying at the 2 to 3% a year rent increases. each year though the renters advantage grows smaller and smaller as the rent goes up . all though just real estate taxes in alot of areas see bigger jumps the costs are offset with tax deductions on some expenses so its all about what the renter did with the money saved each month and down payment money that determines most of how a renter does.

you cant compare renting vs buying unless you have the renter putting equal amounts of money as well into an appreciating asset. thats where most comparisons fool us, they rarely do this. historically equities have outpaced home appreciation by 2x with alot less expenses in the early years of renting.

i can tell you because home real estate appreciates long term just above the rate of inflation in most markets a person who invests the money he planned to buy with and the money he saves each month compared with buying in nothing more than a mix of diversified index funds stands a great chance of coming out further ahead ...

infact i can say with my own expierience that if you were going to pay cash for the house like i did when i bought my house back in 1987 in queens ny and instead put that money in that same mix of funds (i did that also) i can tell you that today you can subtract out all the rent you would have paid for all those years and still have enough left to buy over 2 houses .....

you have to take a step back and stop looking at just one aspect of your overall cost of housing which is where everyone fixates THE HOUSE
and look at the total costs over a lifetime to know if you spent less renting or buying..... chances are they both cost you and took money out of the ole piggy bank and not made you richer .... housing costs are like food costs, they are expenses not gains

for a eye opening idea of expenses look at only 2 of the many components of expenses a homeowner has , taxes and mortgage interest,,, those two alone usually need the house to appreciate at least 3x and probley more in 30 years just to clear the after tax deduction amount you paid in...

most people pull out one piece of the puzzlel the house cost and what its worth without looking at the big picture namely a lifetime of housing costs and merely look at one aspect without the other parts... since we dont know how much future appreciation will be, we dont know rent increases, we dont know your future expenses or how many times you will sell a house and buy another and incurr more costs there is no answer.. in fact the biggest part on the renters behalf who chose to invest else where and rent is we dont know future market returns..... your trying to predict an outcome thats impossible... we dont know who will spend more in housing costs when all is taken into consideration.

picture it as if you were an investor.. you made big bucks on one investment (the house) but all your other investments tanked.... overall your down , the big gains of the one investment merely mitigated the overall loses


the jury is still out as far as whether the age old debate, is it better to buy or rent financially ?... there is no answer and probley never will be
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