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Old 03-13-2007, 10:06 PM
 
202 posts, read 470,235 times
Reputation: 37

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ok if you guys don't belive this is going to happen than look back in history. particularly 86-89.... and if thats not enough than look at whats hapening to the stock market. take a close look at the housing supply giants lie home depot and lowes... they are droping like flies. I just wonder sometimes what people are really reading. I for one think that bush is creating an appocaliptic economy and I hope i'm wrong when I say dooms day world. lets just see what he does when the market tanks low enough and what his stratigy will be to keep the market from tanking.... hmnnn, I can tell you what's coming. its easyto see and it does not take a brain surgion to see this. He laid off china as it is too big a task to chew while fighting this dreadful war in iraq, but hes already picked the fight wil iran and its coming just a matter of time. North korea is another but we wont bomb them cause they already have the bomb... This is a troubling word that we live in. and scary. you can't belive everything that is in the media but come on some things are blatently obviouse. lets just see what happens by the end of 07 and 08 I know that my last post will be... I told you so!

 
Old 03-13-2007, 10:16 PM
 
202 posts, read 470,235 times
Reputation: 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by brian_2 View Post
house-hunter is an entertaining poster with interesting observations (knows a lot about the markets and investing) beyond the scope of most other posters on city-data, and I think of his spiel here as akin to a rant by Kunstler over at kunstler.com (although his focus is not centered around peak oil). Myself, I wouldn't attempt to guess how history will judge Alan Greenspan, but I do appreciate the fact that he loves Jazz music as much as I do. By the way house-hunter, what percentage of a mid-fifty year olds' retirement investments (his sole savings for retirement) would you have allocated into international funds today? At this age I would expect more than half of his investments to be held in high-rated fixed instruments to cut risk from the equity holdings - no? Would you be looking at international developing and/or emerging market (managed) funds, or at a single total international index fund for exposure (low costs) - or have any international or global funds at all? Some say there is a confluence and synergy between international companies and US companies that negates the value and purpose of seperate international investing. Just curious.
I would not know the first thing about the stock market or pretend to beyond my 401K I do feel however that I have a good intuition about smoe things though! Housing is one of them. This market doubled and then doubled again in a short 7 year time span... cheap money will prove to be devistating to our economy and the housing WILL tank in the next three years... think of 2006 as just the heep on top of the mountain .07 is the start of the decline and... 08 is when many will need to take out the tissue boxes... I think in the long run what will happen to the market is a good thing for this country and will spark correction and maintaining building of new home construction for the growing population but not for 10 or so more years. I give it 3 years of severe drops and than about 7-10 years of flatline before we see another housing boom. but don't listen to your realtor, mortgage specialist, banker or seller as they all have something to gain from seeing housing continue to skyrocket... look at the had facts and they are not that easy to find. even with the media you have to dig for it. and dig you will they try to burry it. as they don't want you to know. this is the middle classes downfall and they are banking on that... litterally right to the bank.
 
Old 03-14-2007, 08:09 AM
 
Location: WPB, FL. Dreaming of Oil city, PA
2,909 posts, read 14,066,266 times
Reputation: 1033
Do you think cheap places will drop or just the expensive, overpriced places? I hope to be out by spring 2008.
 
Old 03-14-2007, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Burlington VT
1,405 posts, read 4,779,834 times
Reputation: 554
Quote:
Originally Posted by house-hunter View Post
Oh david thats typical of what a realtor would say...

every realtor I talk to says its a sellers market and this will go on forever. sorry to bust your bubble but its all over and the prices ave already started to drop and the forclosures are already stating to rear thier ugly heads. can't you admit the truth... afterall, if you are a realtor than you surly have better tools than us lay people to check on this. it just the start, lets talk in 08
No actually - I'll respond to this well before 08, house-hunter. And yes - I am indeed a Realtor, as I've often made clear in the interest of clarity and disclosure.

In order to address your blanket statements "every realtor (sic) I talk to says it's a seller's market and this will go on forever" I'll be posting some numbers here, tomorrow. Numbers right out of the local MLS.

btw - I'm not sure what truth you want me to "admit". It's no secret that prices are way down in many parts of the country. It's no secret that there are a lot of foreclosures happening in the sector of the housing market occupied by buyers of shaky qualifications who were lent money by lenders who's underwriting guidelines were too lax. Frankly, there are a lot of lenders who SHOULD go out of business.

Even though market conditions have changed considerably, I'm not quite ready to sell my primary home and start hoarding gold in the basement of my new rental apartment.

Regards,
David
 
Old 03-14-2007, 01:59 PM
 
Location: Burlington VT
1,405 posts, read 4,779,834 times
Reputation: 554
Quote:
Originally Posted by house-hunter View Post
I would not know the first thing about the stock market or pretend to beyond my 401K I do feel however that I have a good intuition about smoe things though! Housing is one of them. This market doubled and then doubled again in a short 7 year time span... cheap money will prove to be devistating to our economy and the housing WILL tank in the next three years... think of 2006 as just the heep on top of the mountain .07 is the start of the decline and... 08 is when many will need to take out the tissue boxes... I think in the long run what will happen to the market is a good thing for this country and will spark correction and maintaining building of new home construction for the growing population but not for 10 or so more years. I give it 3 years of severe drops and than about 7-10 years of flatline before we see another housing boom. but don't listen to your realtor, mortgage specialist, banker or seller as they all have something to gain from seeing housing continue to skyrocket... look at the had facts and they are not that easy to find. even with the media you have to dig for it. and dig you will they try to burry it. as they don't want you to know. this is the middle classes downfall and they are banking on that... litterally right to the bank.
Ahhhhh

I'm starting to understand: It's a giant conspiracy on the part of "the media" along with "your realtor" (sic), mortgage specialist, banker, seller etc.

and "they" don't want you to know.

Well, I'll grant you that there's a lot of money moving "from the weaker hands to the stronger" to use Adam Smith's phrase.

But do you really want to make the case that the above mentioned (mortgage bankers, "the media" "realtors" (sic) are engaging in a conspiracy to destroy the middle class? Don't get me wrong, I understand the corporate classes in this country have won the economic battle recently. The administration of Dubya has done everything in it's power to assist with that, but - it's all a giant conspiracy to collapse the Real Estate market and impoverish the middle class?

The economic dynamics of this are pretty easy to examine - pick up a Wall Street Journal for goodness sake.

Cheers,
David
 
Old 03-14-2007, 10:30 PM
 
6 posts, read 18,495 times
Reputation: 15
Red face Getting Out There

Some of these comments are getting pretty far fetched...and some may want to use spell check not to be too critical; the commentary can be hard to sort through at times. Bottom line...I own 4 rental properties that I purchased with my liquid gold Calif. equity and purchased in areas, because I did my homework, that continue to appreciate. Not at the astronomical rates they were 3 years ago, but comfortable for me. What some need to understand, and maybe put in perspective, is there are areas that remain attractive to people, especially those who are coming into their retirement years...I do not think in any way that all areas are going to tank - that is an insane point of view...housing doubles every 7-10 years and no matter what is going on in high cost areas such as San Diego, SF, LA etc. people continue to gravitate to these cities b/c of what they offer - especially San Diego. Is our housing market going to hell in a handbasket - NO...depreciating - yes to a slight degree, but I am okay if it goes down to a more affordable level - but that is relative as well. Seems that people tend to create their own panic hense the mass collective thinking is the outcome. Be careful what you ask for...you just might get it. Thanks for the entertainment, I will stay tuned.
 
Old 03-15-2007, 05:48 AM
 
11,550 posts, read 53,049,707 times
Reputation: 16331
agree with syetman ... many areas remain desirable and just because the housing appreciation isn't going up as fast as it was recently doesn't mean that the housing market is collapsing. There's still an increasing population that needs housing; whether they own it or lease it, it still must be built and it still has value.

It's a tragedy that people of marginal financial sense and responsibility were given an opportunity of home ownership and so many just blew it by defaulting on the easy credit terms they were extended (no down payments, low interest rates). In my experience, many of those people had the earnings and cash flow adequate to support a mortgage ... often less than they were paying in rent, if first time homeowners ... and have never learned personal financial discipline and prioritizing their "wants" and "needs" to achieve realistic financial goals.

I believe if many had to come up with hard cash for a down payment then home ownership would have had more value to them and they'd have worked a lot harder to hang onto their investment. Otherwise, it's been nothing but "easy come, easy go" for a lot of them who effectively had nothing to lose by defaulting on a mortgage.

BTW, syetman ... you might want to use the spell checker, too ....
 
Old 03-15-2007, 09:27 PM
 
Location: Charlotte,NC, US, North America, Earth, Alpha Quadrant,Milky Way Galaxy
3,770 posts, read 7,529,581 times
Reputation: 2118
Quote:
Originally Posted by syetman View Post
Some of these comments are getting pretty far fetched...and some may want to use spell check not to be too critical; the commentary can be hard to sort through at times. Bottom line...I own 4 rental properties that I purchased with my liquid gold Calif. equity and purchased in areas, because I did my homework, that continue to appreciate. Not at the astronomical rates they were 3 years ago, but comfortable for me. What some need to understand, and maybe put in perspective, is there are areas that remain attractive to people, especially those who are coming into their retirement years...I do not think in any way that all areas are going to tank - that is an insane point of view...housing doubles every 7-10 years and no matter what is going on in high cost areas such as San Diego, SF, LA etc. people continue to gravitate to these cities b/c of what they offer - especially San Diego. Is our housing market going to hell in a handbasket - NO...depreciating - yes to a slight degree, but I am okay if it goes down to a more affordable level - but that is relative as well. Seems that people tend to create their own panic hense the mass collective thinking is the outcome. Be careful what you ask for...you just might get it. Thanks for the entertainment, I will stay tuned.
Well there you go. If you buying real estate in good areas, for the long term (like for example- to live and raise a family) your house will appreciate. This doom and gloom is relevant for the flippers who were hoping to sign a purchase and sales and hoping the property will appreciate 20% in 6 months when the house is finished. That is filled with way to much risk as to many people got into doing it and it crashed. Real Estate over time is always a good investment.
 
Old 03-17-2007, 12:35 AM
 
202 posts, read 470,235 times
Reputation: 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home View Post
Do you think cheap places will drop or just the expensive, overpriced places? I hope to be out by spring 2008.
YES i do... prices will drop by percentage overall for a given area. and they will keep droping for the unseeable future. I would not be surprised if we see price drops fot the next 5 years for a total of 6 since about feb. 06... just wait and see what happens this year with all those subprime loans out there.

this is by far the worse time to buy... if you do you will see the value plumet to record lows from the now record highs its a cycle and it needt to correct itself. Look at the stock market right now same thing.
 
Old 03-17-2007, 12:52 AM
 
202 posts, read 470,235 times
Reputation: 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miker2069 View Post
Well there you go. If you buying real estate in good areas, for the long term (like for example- to live and raise a family) your house will appreciate. This doom and gloom is relevant for the flippers who were hoping to sign a purchase and sales and hoping the property will appreciate 20% in 6 months when the house is finished. That is filled with way to much risk as to many people got into doing it and it crashed. Real Estate over time is always a good investment.
mmmmmmmnnnn careful with the generalization here... exactly what do you mean by over time? 10-20-30 years? because in my area homes have doubled and then doubled again in a short 5 year span. someone getting into a home right now is looking into 50-60 years of mortgage payments as a first time home buyer. NO sir... real estate was once a good investment but I will bet that there is a dark and grim reality that one should not buy without equity (ie down payment or sale proceeds of an existing home) otherwise you will be looking at a lifetime of payments without seeing the benefits of sustainability for retirement. Its a horrible reality but true. I'm not even talking about the flippers out there, they already ran for cover and won't be seen for the next 20 years. No sir, take a look outside your bedroom window to that nieghbor who bought thier home at the hight of the market with "easy money". I will bet that you will be getting new nieghbors within the next 2-3 years. amen, its about time! home ownership here I come. I welcome the sweet correction on its way... correct me and set me free baby!
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