Homes More Affordable Now Than Ever?

[boocake]

The Raleigh - Cary (funny, we used to call it Raleigh/Durham but I digress..) area is also seeing a hit in housing, although prices are NOT really down much at all....yet. The following stats are from Jan. 2009.

Wake County (Raleigh)
Sales are down 44%
Inventory is up 2.3%, and 32% higher than 2 years ago
There are 12 months of inventory on the market
Average price is down 3%, but still 3.4% higher than 2 years ago
Median price is down 0.2% but still 1.4% higher than 2 years ago

Johnston County (the county below Wake)
Sales down 49%
Inventory down 9%, but still up 12% compared to 2 years ago
There are 13 months of inventory on the market
Average price is down 1.9%, but up 4.8% from 2 years ago
Median price is down 1.6%, but up 0.6% from 2 years ago

Just to make sure I give credit where it's due, the above data came from a KCFromNC post on the local forum.

[chuck22b]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

Chuck,

When do you see us overshooting on affordability/price? That would be when to buy though if we hit bottom price-wise we may stay there awhile and it may make more sense just to wait and overshoot bottom. I would overshoot bottom than undershoot in this market.

In Southern California, the median has already reached 2002 prices (nominal 2002 prices means a Real price far bellow pre-bubble times), and according to Thornberg, historical affordability levels have already been reached:

Prices have now dipped below the level at which they'd be in line with the historical ratio of prices to incomes in California, said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist who is principal of the consulting firm Beacon Economics.

Thornberg estimates the current median home value in California is $250,000. But wages are high enough -- and interest rates low enough -- that a median value of $290,000 would match historical norms, he said.

Southern California home prices fall to 2002 levels - Los Angeles Times

So, in Southern California, things have reached historical levels. BUT, how far it overshoots is going to be determined by economic factors.

Basically, the bubble has already deflated back to pre-bubble times.... but the economy has deteriorated to a point where it is worse than it was in the early 2000s (in spite of having a short recession back then).

The good thing though for the Southern Californian market is that sales have consistently increased year over year, month over month... and that the current Months of Inventory has dropped down to 5.6 months.

California's unsold inventory index for existing, single-family detached homes in December 2008 was 5.6 months, down from the 13.4 months for the same period a year ago

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/s...6/daily38.html

The reason I see a potential uptick in prices when the economy improves is because of the drastic reduction in new home permits and construction. Meanwhile, population is still increasing and the current sales rates are bellow historical levels.

The main things to look at is how effective the recently announced housing plan is in throttling (not necessarily preventing) foreclosures... how effective is the Federal Reserve in increasing credit availability (money supply) and credit flow (money velocity)... how much inventory enters and exits the market during the "Spring/Summer" selling season and how effective is the Economic Recovery Act in stimulating employment (unemployment).

I think we'll see how well these things work within this year.

-chuck22b

[Humboldt1]

Great comments about affordability. I think 2010 will see even greater affordability. For this reason I am waiting to buy unless I find the perfect foreclosure or shortsale.

[middle-aged mom]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

Great comments about affordability. I think 2010 will see even greater affordability. For this reason I am waiting to buy unless I find the perfect foreclosure or shortsale.

Did you ever get in , on Talcot?

[amerifree]

I told my realtor to "sit tight, I'll get back to you".....in 2011 or 20012....maybe?

[boocake]

The home next door to me as well as the one across the street just sold. Anyone who doesn't think real estate is local should come to Raleigh!

[Humboldt1]

Middleagedmom,

The bank took posession and did not winterize the place so too many problems to mess with.

I want to buy a place that only needs cosmetic repairs.

[cohdane]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

The bank took posession and did not winterize the place.

This is a huge problem I've seen. Houses are getting destroyed all over the place. There needs to be a law or procedures or something. Stupid, stupid, stupid.