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The subprime fallout is (nearly) over. What you've got left is Alt A's (which are a bit more well qualified than subprimes) and the economic (job loss) defaults coming. I don't think they will wreak nearly as much havoc as the subprimers, who we all knew were going to default any freaking way....
But that's what my crystal ball says. I have no ulterior motive and I could be wrong. Could you?
Yep, I could be wrong, but my crystal ball says that job loss defaults will be the mother of all the fallouts. Job losses quickly create a feedback loop that reinforce a downward spiral. It takes many years to recover from that.
Location: Halfway between Number 4 Privet Drive and Forks, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heiwos
Yep, I could be wrong, but my crystal ball says that job loss defaults will be the mother of all the fallouts. Job losses quickly create a feedback loop that reinforce a downward spiral. It takes many years to recover from that.
I disagree, I don't think they will even be close to the subprimes...
I found the comments re: small businesses - employers - interesting.
Very interesting read. As I stated before, I could be wrong. Let's hope the Alt A/Option Arm borrowers can refi and if they can't, have a bit more hesitancy about walking away.
The subprime fallout is (nearly) over. What you've got left is Alt A's (which are a bit more well qualified than subprimes) and the economic (job loss) defaults coming. I don't think they will wreak nearly as much havoc as the subprimers, who we all knew were going to default any freaking way....
As I've said before, the eye of this financial hurricane is just passing over all of us right now.....watch out for the maelstrom on the back end which will be far more devastating than what we've experienced so far.
If you think the worst has passed....you have another think coming!
As I've said before, the eye of this financial hurricane is just passing over all of us right now.....watch out for the maelstrom on the back end which will be far more devastating than what we've experienced so far.
If you think the worst has passed....you have another think coming!
Not the Judas Priest version.....
Agreed.
As I heard someone say once: "Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the train"
I'm a prospective buyer - watching the condo market in my area for the last 6 months.
I'm shopping condos that were built in 2006-2007, sold for about $500K, and foreclosures are now going for about $220-250K.
Looking at it from the seller's perspective, if I were someone who bought my condo in early 2007 for $500K, I probably would have put down 3-10% and then in 1 year paid off almost zero principle.
Assuming I want to sell my condo for the going rate - $250K, I still owe $220K on it.
I probably don't have $200K sitting in the bank so that I can get out from under my condo. But it's a Condo and I just lost my job and found another job in another city.
What do I do other than list an overpriced condo, and pray that some sucker with a big inheritance comes along?
No doubt SRNYONG you are in a bad situation, but lease it for the rate the market will bear and maybe 12 months from now it will be a better time to sell. Good Luck!
No doubt SRNYONG you are in a bad situation, but lease it for the rate the market will bear and maybe 12 months from now it will be a better time to sell. Good Luck!
Thanks Ellen, but if you look closely at my post, I'm the buyer. I don't have an overpriced condo to sell.
I was just theorizing from the seller's perspective.
Most of these nice condos that I am looking at have very strict lease policies, not more than 25% of units can be leased at a time. So obviously there is a long waiting list to even make your unit available for rent.
As a buyer, I can only shop foreclosures and not feel ripped off. In one of the condo buildings I am shopping, resales are listed between $300K - $400K, while foreclosures are listed at $220K - $250K.
Thanks Ellen, but if you look closely at my post, I'm the buyer. I don't have an overpriced condo to sell.
I was just theorizing from the seller's perspective.
Most of these nice condos that I am looking at have very strict lease policies, not more than 25% of units can be leased at a time. So obviously there is a long waiting list to even make your unit available for rent.
As a buyer, I can only shop foreclosures and not feel ripped off. In one of the condo buildings I am shopping, resales are listed between $300K - $400K, while foreclosures are listed at $220K - $250K.
The seller will WALK and this will become even more common in the months ahead. Anyone that suggests or thinks prices will be better in 12 months is in SUPER DENIAL mode. Sure each market is different but I don't see how anyone can think prices will INCREASE in the short term pretty much anywhere? Some may stay flat or even a slight 1% type increase but holding out a year for a better market is insane.
And being that underwater, refi is not an option. And rentals will be flooding the market and most people won't consider or or be able to afford to do it.
The seller will WALK and this will become even more common in the months ahead. Anyone that suggests or thinks prices will be better in 12 months is in SUPER DENIAL mode. Sure each market is different but I don't see how anyone can think prices will INCREASE in the short term pretty much anywhere? Some may stay flat or even a slight 1% type increase but holding out a year for a better market is insane.
And being that underwater, refi is not an option. And rentals will be flooding the market and most people won't consider or or be able to afford to do it.
This is so true. I am seeing houses that were grossly overpriced when they hit the market 4-8 months ago now being offered for rent. Now their problem is an oversupply of rentals.
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lease it and get what you can
