Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
From what I have also seen epople that buy a home that cost 500,000 and get it for 250'000 often can not afford to keep the maintenance up on that home. I saw this as finacncing goit easier in the 90's in which people bought more thn they sould keepup.Entire subdivisions changed from nice to dumpy in ten years as those that could moved out. Materials and other cost don't go down with the basic price.Txaes can opften depenhd on where the local governamnt gets its majority of income;be it residental;industrial or commercial or a mix.
From what I have also seen epople that buy a home that cost 500,000 and get it for 250'000 often can not afford to keep the maintenance up on that home. I saw this as finacncing goit easier in the 90's in which people bought more thn they sould keepup.Entire subdivisions changed from nice to dumpy in ten years as those that could moved out. Materials and other cost don't go down with the basic price.Txaes can opften depenhd on where the local governamnt gets its majority of income;be it residental;industrial or commercial or a mix.
Thats surprising. Depending on the area, obviously, assuming that prices are dipping back to pre-2000 pricing, those houses that cost $500,000 at peak were probably not all that huge.
My in-laws house in Westchester County, NY, was above $600k at the peak, supposedly. Their house is under 2000 sqft, not including the basement - hardly difficult to upkeep. This might be limited to that area however.
Now that I am down south, where I see more evidence of post-2000 McMansions - most of them have been maintained quite well, even the foreclosed ones, because the owners used HELOCs to keep up the maintenance, pay for the landscaping, etc.
Again...*sigh*. If you don't believe the sky is falling and everyone is going to crash, then you're "in denial," Potter. Anyone who happens to not be horribly upside down and even intimates that their locality is not in dire straits is "in denial."
MAM put it nicely in another thread. I can't find it now or I'd quote it. Maybe she knows which one it is. She said there are actually just a handful of RE bulls. Anyone who doesn't think the economy and housing IN GENERAL is in a bad way is just uninformed. But on this forum, anyone who doesn't agree with RE is NEVER going to recover so you must sell now and never buy is "in denial." The majority of us just voice our opinions for our local area, then the bears chime in and tell us that we're "in denial" because, after all, ALL real estate is in the toilet.
I just put those people on ignore and move on. I read these threads when I need a good laugh!! LOL!
It's as mom said. I would wager that most people you see denying what is going on around them have in some way have or are being affected negatively either because they bought during the height of the bubble, waited to late to sell and cant get their bubble bucks, lost a lot of money, or refi'd and are underwater. It has to be psychological.
I have been accused of being a RE Bull and "in denial" because I pointed out that not everywhere experienced the bubble of certain areas (CA, LV, FL, Ariz.) and that there are still areas where prices are holding up and foreclosures/short sales are rare. I own my house free and clear so no underwater, purchased it in 1998 so before there was any bubble anywhere (although this area never bubbled), and have no desire to sell since I am happy as a clam in my paid for house. I guess you are 0 for 3 in your assessment! There has not been a house for sale in my immediate area (~ 24 houses) in about 2 years, ~ 2/3rds of the owners are original (~20 years), and probably close to 1/2 have no mortgage.
Statistics like that are what the news does not report on!
Quote:
Originally Posted by VMH2507
I have been accused of being a RE Bull and "in denial" because I pointed out that not everywhere experienced the bubble of certain areas (CA, LV, FL, Ariz.) and that there are still areas where prices are holding up and foreclosures/short sales are rare. I own my house free and clear so no underwater, purchased it in 1998 so before there was any bubble anywhere (although this area never bubbled), and have no desire to sell since I am happy as a clam in my paid for house. I guess you are 0 for 3 in your assessment! There has not been a house for sale in my immediate area (~ 24 houses) in about 2 years, ~ 2/3rds of the owners are original (~20 years), and probably close to 1/2 have no mortgage.
Averages in desirable areas of much of the country reflect those numbers -- too many prognosticators swallow the lines from the "real estate researchers" that base far too much of their data not on EVERY home but only on those WITH MORTGAGES, where the NUMBERS are much easier to come by becuase of the FEDERAL TRUTH IN LENDING requirements!!!
Cash sales and homes that are free and clear fall though the holes in the researchers sieves and lead to faulty assumptions about everything for the suitability of ARM / balloon / interest only loans too stability and credit risks. LAZY researchers that do SLOPPY WORK are responsible for a lot of the mess that we have right now, as lenders accepted this "junk research" as TRUE without do a little "door knocking" to ask how many of their neighbors (or their parents neighbors) really match the descriptions of the lenders that the researchers had cooked up.
The "genie" won't be forced back into the bottle in one swoop, but I do think that if lenders are allowed to use the real risks they have experienced to price mortgages AND THE GOVERNMENT does not play games with race and other loaded issues, real estate will again be the stable sort of asset that most people prefer...
Location: Halfway between Number 4 Privet Drive and Forks, WA
1,516 posts, read 4,589,470 times
Reputation: 677
Quote:
Again...*sigh*. If you don't believe the sky is falling and everyone is going to crash, then you're "in denial," Potter. Anyone who happens to not be horribly upside down and even intimates that their locality is not in dire straits is "in denial."
Quote:
I have been accused of being a RE Bull and "in denial" because I pointed out that not everywhere experienced the bubble of certain areas (CA, LV, FL, Ariz.) and that there are still areas where prices are holding up and foreclosures/short sales are rare.
LOL, I was wondering if he meant me specifically, because I certainly don't fit his criteria below...
Quote:
Originally Posted by LongIslandCitizen
It's as mom said. I would wager that most people you see denying what is going on around them have in some way have or are being affected negatively either because they bought during the height of the bubble, waited to late to sell and cant get their bubble bucks, lost a lot of money, or refi'd and are underwater. It has to be psychological.
Forget bears...I wonder what the criteria is for a real estate "snail"...
Maybe hide in your shell while the proverbial sky supposedly falls? And tell everyone "don't buy now" just to further promote your own agenda?
Last edited by PotterGeek; 04-23-2009 at 05:01 PM..
The main point is that despite the propaganda being put out by CNBC and NAR this housing market still has serious problems that have not yet come home to roost. This is a heads up for people considering buying into the market. In order to make informed decisions, you must be aware of all the circumstances. The fact that Banks, and the Government have a vested interest in propping up RE prices is something people need to know in order to weigh the truthfulness of the information being disseminated by the interested parties. One important point to remember is that bubbles, once popped do not re-inflate for long periods. Most people alive now have never really seen a bear market in RE, only short downturns in a Bull market that began in the early 70's. Another statistic to remember is that bear markets are usually 33% the duration of the preceding bull. If this is the case now, many people buying into this market at the present time may not see prices return to break even for several years.
LOL, I was wondering if he meant me specifically, because I certainly don't fit his criteria below...
Forget bears...I wonder what the criteria is for a real estate "snail"...
Maybe hide in your shell while the proverbial sky supposedly falls? And tell everyone "don't buy now" just to further promote your own agenda?
bull market
A prolonged period in which investment prices rise faster than their historical average bull markets can happen as a result of an economic recovery, an economic boom, or investor psychology. The longest and most famous bull market is the one that began in the early 1990s in which the U.S. equity markets grew at their fastest pace ever. opposite of bear market
bear market
A prolonged period in which investment prices fall, accompanied by widespread pessimism. If the period of falling prices is short and immediately follows a period of rising prices, it is instead called a correction. Bear markets usually occur when the economy is in a recession and unemployment is high, or when inflation is rising quickly. The most famous bear market in U.S. history was the great depression of the 1930s. The term "bear" has been used in a financial context since at least the early 18th century. While its origins are unclear, the term may have originated from traderswho sold bear skins with the expectations that prices would fall in the future. opposite of bull market.
Which one do you think we are experiencing now. I have never heard the term "snail" before or hiding in a shell, guess that went over my head. However I would say that for many people here the "agenda" is obvious.The agenda is to explain to people that they have to make an informed and responsible decision when it comes to purchasing a home which incidentally happens to be one of the most important decisions in their lifetime and one of the most expensive purchases they likely will ever make. I'm not speaking to RE Agents, Investors, house flippers, or bankers. I'm trying to advise normal citizens with normal jobs who work hard for a living raising their families. People that want to live in good communities and send their children to good schools.
It may seem that I don't feel any sympathy for people that got in way over their heads the past few years and have found themselves in dire straights whether it be the loss of a job or substantial credit card debt. Although that is like apples and oranges, some people cannot control their job status. Greed had driven the market not only from a lender stand point but from a buyer stand point as well. People were permitted to buy homes they couldn't afford and they knew it. If anyone doesn't know that after a few years a 4% interest rate would turn to 8% or an interest only loan wouldn't ballon out of control than that person is insane and they spread that insanity into the market which escalated and sucked in a generation of people. That insanity is now spreading into the credit card arena in which we will be seeing credit card companies raising interest rates up to cover their charge offs so that you , me, and everyone else will be paying for every slacker that couldn't uphold their obligations. I will be paying for deadbeats all across the country even though I am holding up my end of the bargain. Paying my taxes and paying off my cards on time.
It didn't take a rocket scientist in lets say 2005 to see that the market was awry. A $400,000 homes that were considered "fixer uppers" is a farce. The market was obviously in a bubble but every Real Estate agent I knew was advising that that was the time to buy, property prices were going up, Houses weren't going to get cheaper, etc etc and with all due respect I have a close relative and several friends in the business and not one knew it was coming. I knew, maybe because it wasn't my business and I didn't drink their Kool-aid. I do however read the Wall Street journal and peruse both left and right leaning newspapers and media publications. I am also in the Legal field and I see families being put out on the street all the time.
Real Estate and inflation went up far faster than salaries did. Actually I think salaries have actually went down. So I guess my agenda is to see the market totally correct itself to meet proper supply and demand so that normal American citizens can pursue the American dream of owning a home at a decent price to raise their families in a capitalistic society free of government intrusions and self serving bankers artificially inflating our economy.
It all sums up to this. Prices are going to continue to come down and no moritoriums on foreclosures, no tax credits or low interests rates are going to stop it. If you don't have to purchase a home now than don't. It may be worthwhile to look at short sales and whatnot depending on your area.
Excuse the length of the post but I found it interesting that There must be an agenda connected with anyone who appreciates the decline in the market.
I would agree wholeheartedly with everything that you said if you had only added the caveat that the phenomenon that you described -- $400,000 fixers, etc -- was almost exclusively found in certain regions of the country. Notwithstanding the fact that these were large population centers where large numbers of people were impacted, one look at the map shows that there are large areas of the country that did not play that game and to some extent are not playing it today. Look at WV, LA, and TX -- look at the data in the link for the 3 largest population areas of TX -- Dallas, Houston and Austin. Many times when people play with fire (as in the CA real estate speculators), they get burned. I also have trouble expending a great deal of sympathy for people who want to be bailed out from the stupidity of their speculation. However. if a person needs a home and has the wherewithall to purchase at what they consider to be realistic terms, then it is disingenuous of people like many posters on this thread to try to scare them into delaying their purchase when they have no understanding of the market conditions in their particular location.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Statistics like that are what the news does not report on!
