Pending home sales rebounding -third consecutive month of gains (insurance, construction, claim)

[chet everett]

What sort of business is related to cabinets and caskets and elevators and toilet seats in SC? Timber? Fidelity Select Paper & Forest Prod (FSPFX) - Google Finance

That aside, I think you are going off the "generally accepted explanation" and the evidence is unclear if those rules still apply here. I am serious about that. NEVER BEFORE has the US Government taken such an enormous role in banking and manufacturing and other fields. NEVER. Hard to say if "this changes everything" or if the same lessons of the past are still at work.

[London Girl]

With America's debt currently standing at around $37,000 PER PERSON (United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) where exactly is this all this spending money to miraculously heal the economy coming from??????

America has been a nation of spenders and consumers.

It is now IN DEBT, to a nation of savers (China).

I find the following article on world trade very interesting, particularly in relation to the devaluation of the $US:

CynicusEconomicus

[In the Pines]

Chet -

No, my husband isn't in the timber business. He works for a European company that makes many, many products including thermo-foil products. His territory stretches all over the Americas and he goes to Europe a few times a year. Business is slower than in the past but is still humming along nicely and we are very thankful for that.

Concerning jobs, looking at it in the most simplistic terms possible: doesn't money have to be spent before jobs are created? Businesses can't hire until sales are up. We can't have job creation with someone paying the salaries. In some cases, it's the consumers that have the money to spend. In other cases, it's the government (road projects, etc.). I'm not saying individuals have the cash to spend but I'm saying salaries can't be paid until money is spent.

Remember - we're a capitalist society and our whole economy is based on somebody, somewhere spending money. There are a few of us that may prefer the economies prevalent before the Industrial Revolution but I'm guessing most Americans aren't too keen on living off the land.

[CouponJack]

What happens when mortgage rates continue to climb? Less purchasing power for 1st time homebuyers. I tend to agree w/the article that you can kiss 5% goodbye...


I'd be weary right now and watch interest rates.

Next couple of months should be interesting....

[glenn_1000]

I thought recoveries started with consumer spending and housing, maybe the stock market next, and lastly jobs. I saw somewhere that spending and homes were expected to bounce back while the country is still losing jobs and then jobs would return after spending regained.

It should be - stock market - housing - jobs.

Stock market is the leading indicator and it is trending up -up -up.

Housing market is not just driven by homeowners, but also investors who are looking forward. So it is a leading indicator as well and now is trending up three months in a row.

Jobs will be created when growth begins. Jobs will still be lost, but they are being lost at a slower rate. The hardest hit sectors in the hardest hit states is construction. Manufacturing is picking up and those jobs will come back before the construction jobs. Home builder sentiment was up last month, once inventory drops a little more, new construction will pick up.

You do realize that sales typically increase this time of year, right?

This report was for April. Summer is when sales pick up, so we have not seen anything yet.

[KCfromNC]

I think you have to be careful to define what a housing recovery means. If you're talking about sales, we may be past the bottom, or at least past the first of them. If you're talking about a stabilization in prices, there's a long way to go. Typically, prices hit the bottom years after sales start to recover. I think it was a 5 year difference CA bubble, to give an example from history. It could be that this time is different, but that's the kind of thinking which led to the bubble in the first place (and the dot com bubble, and the commodities bubble, and so on).

[cleanhouse]

Originally Posted by glenn_1000

Number of signed sales contracts continues bounce off record lows for third consecutive month.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of home sales contracts signed in April continued to bouce back from record lows hit last winter, according to a widely watched industry report. This is the third consecutive month of gains.
The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.7% in April after jumping 3.2% in March. That was far above the forecasts of experts surveyed by Briefing.com, who predicted a 0.5% increase. The index was 3.3% higher than 12 months earlier.


Pending home sales rebound in April due to first-time buyers - Jun. 2, 2009

Sorry to burst your "bubble"- no pun- But Pending home sales do not mean much anymore:

Are “Pending Home Sales” Real? - Realty Check with Diana Olick - CNBC.com

[Flat2MT]

Originally Posted by glenn_1000

It should be - stock market - housing - jobs.

Stock market is the leading indicator and it is trending up -up -up.

Housing market is not just driven by homeowners, but also investors who are looking forward. So it is a leading indicator as well and now is trending up three months in a row.

Jobs will be created when growth begins. Jobs will still be lost, but they are being lost at a slower rate. The hardest hit sectors in the hardest hit states is construction. Manufacturing is picking up and those jobs will come back before the construction jobs. Home builder sentiment was up last month, once inventory drops a little more, new construction will pick up.

This report was for April. Summer is when sales pick up, so we have not seen anything yet.

Housing market for the most part dragged the stock market down and it needs to stabilze first in the short term - no housing stabilization = no stock market recovery.

[le roi]

Originally Posted by In the Pines

Aren't jobs the last thing to recover, though? Correct me if I'm wrong but - there can't be jobs without spending because no one has any money or reason to hire.

I thought recoveries started with consumer spending and housing, maybe the stock market next, and lastly jobs. I saw somewhere that spending and homes were expected to bounce back while the country is still losing jobs and then jobs would return after spending regained.


Of course that means somebody with money already has to open up their wallets and spend it before jobs can come back. My husband reports upturns in many of his customers businesses (everything from kitchen cabinets to caskets to residential elevators to toilet seats).

Opinions?

I don't believe in standardized recoveries. I think the recovery depends on whatever problem drove us into the recession. In my view, we were driven into a recession by stagnant incomes and rising debt.

Therefore my personal opinion is that domestic household incomes and domestic unemployment will be the signs leading us out of the recession. When we begin to make the transition away from being the world's largest debtor, then I will feel OK about recovery.

People might start spending, either via debt or income, but it doesn't mean anything to me if we are still buying everything from China.

The stock market rebound means nothing considering:
(A) Changes in accounting standards
(B) Capital flowing from the government in unknown amounts, to unknown locations

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by cleanhouse

Sorry to burst your "bubble"- no pun- But Pending home sales do not mean much anymore:

Are “Pending Home Sales” Real? - Realty Check with Diana Olick - CNBC.com

Good article. Points out 2 items that have been discussed here..short sales not going through and appraisals coming in lower than sales price.

Also interesting that the outcome of "pending" changed drastically late last year and is NOT indicative of final sales.