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Old 06-04-2009, 10:00 AM
 
220 posts, read 1,007,947 times
Reputation: 170

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Wow, you bears are really clutching for straws LOL.

Pending home sales is the closest measure in real time, who knows how long it may take to close? 4 weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months? All that matters is that pending sales are being compared to prior pending sales.

A break in a key jobless measure

Continuing claims fall for first time since the week ended Jan. 3. Weekly claims edge lower.

(CNNMoney.com) -- Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance declined for the first time since January, and the number of initial claims fell slightly, according to government data released Thursday.

Initial claims and continuing jobless claims fall - Jun. 4, 2009
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Old 06-04-2009, 10:07 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 81,300,685 times
Reputation: 27707
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
Wow, you bears are really clutching for straws LOL.

Pending home sales is the closest measure in real time, who knows how long it may take to close? 4 weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months? All that matters is that pending sales are being compared to prior pending sales.

A break in a key jobless measure

Continuing claims fall for first time since the week ended Jan. 3. Weekly claims edge lower.

(CNNMoney.com) -- Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance declined for the first time since January, and the number of initial claims fell slightly, according to government data released Thursday.

Initial claims and continuing jobless claims fall - Jun. 4, 2009
Well I wouldn't be jumping for joy with this news..15K difference when the numbers are in the range of 600K plus each month is not really good news.

And, not many people pay attention when the "revised" numbers come out a few weeks later; those revised numbers have been trending upward not downward.
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Old 06-04-2009, 10:12 AM
 
1,340 posts, read 3,581,616 times
Reputation: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Well I wouldn't be jumping for joy with this news..15K difference when the numbers are in the range of 600K plus each month is not really good news.

And, not many people pay attention when the "revised" numbers come out a few weeks later; those revised numbers have been trending upward not downward.
I agree. It is better to see the numbers get smaller no doubt so the fact it LOOKS like we are heading to lesser numbers is good but hardly a "home free" stamp...

I just don't get how on this board you have to be labeled BEAR or BULL. Can't you be inbetween.
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Old 06-04-2009, 10:15 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 29,508,066 times
Reputation: 14693
Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
I just don't get how on this board you have to be labeled BEAR or BULL. Can't you be inbetween.
Nope, and this particular aspect of the Real Estate board is really fascinating to me. Not so much that owners and sellers will highlight the good news clippings; but rather that they will completely ignore the bad ones. Another fascinating trend is the perception that one positive data point "cancels out" the other 2 or 3 dozen negative data points.
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Old 06-04-2009, 10:32 AM
 
28,460 posts, read 81,519,993 times
Reputation: 18676
Default The story is far from certain...

Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
Wow, you bears are really clutching for straws LOL.

Pending home sales is the closest measure in real time, who knows how long it may take to close? 4 weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months? All that matters is that pending sales are being compared to prior pending sales.

A break in a key jobless measure

Continuing claims fall for first time since the week ended Jan. 3. Weekly claims edge lower.

(CNNMoney.com) -- Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance declined for the first time since January, and the number of initial claims fell slightly, according to government data released Thursday.

Initial claims and continuing jobless claims fall - Jun. 4, 2009
I know that when a bouncing ball comes to the top of its arc there is an instant where its relative motion is 'zero' -- folks looking for that point in the unemployment 'bounce' are NEVER going to see it!

The good news buried in that report about NC having far fewer lay-offs in construction, furniture, and transportation industries will be ignored and when the lay-offs / work stoppages related to the coming extended shut downs for auto makers and parts suppliers will be treated as THE SEVENTH SIGN OF THE APOCALYPSE by those same nay sayers...
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Old 06-04-2009, 10:37 AM
 
220 posts, read 1,007,947 times
Reputation: 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Well I wouldn't be jumping for joy with this news..15K difference when the numbers are in the range of 600K plus each month is not really good news.

And, not many people pay attention when the "revised" numbers come out a few weeks later; those revised numbers have been trending upward not downward.
What matters is that it is setting an upward trend, you are not going to see a V shaped recovery.

And when the revised numbers come out, they will be better just like all the revised numbers have been lately.
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Old 06-04-2009, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Lowcountry
764 posts, read 1,547,541 times
Reputation: 416
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
What matters is that it is setting an upward trend, you are not going to see a V shaped recovery.

And when the revised numbers come out, they will be better just like all the revised numbers have been lately.
The term 'trend' is used very loosely here.... I don't doubt that a good number of people have stopped looking for work so that may have skewed the numbers also.

You are correct about not seeing a 'V' shaped recovery; it's going to look more like 'L' shaped recover with the base of the L stretched way out....
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Old 06-04-2009, 01:52 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 81,300,685 times
Reputation: 27707
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
What matters is that it is setting an upward trend, you are not going to see a V shaped recovery.

And when the revised numbers come out, they will be better just like all the revised numbers have been lately.
Well an upward trend for unemployment is NOT good news.

The revised numbers are for unemployment figures..higher numbers usually come out of the revisions.not lower numbers.

You want to watch for the trend going downward in unemployment figures, not upward.
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Old 06-04-2009, 06:42 PM
 
1,417 posts, read 2,217,580 times
Reputation: 1179
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post
I don't believe in standardized recoveries. I think the recovery depends on whatever problem drove us into the recession. In my view, we were driven into a recession by stagnant incomes and rising debt.

Therefore my personal opinion is that domestic household incomes and domestic unemployment will be the signs leading us out of the recession. When we begin to make the transition away from being the world's largest debtor, then I will feel OK about recovery.

People might start spending, either via debt or income, but it doesn't mean anything to me if we are still buying everything from China.

The stock market rebound means nothing considering:
(A) Changes in accounting standards
(B) Capital flowing from the government in unknown amounts, to unknown locations
Excellent post.

People have to start looking at the bigger global picture and at what is happening with regard to the dollar as a currency.

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.co...ef-review.html

From the above link:

Quote:
At the moment it is not hard to find optimistic projections for an economic recovery from many in the mainstream media, as well as from government sources. However, if we look at each sector of the economy, the only possible brightspot is a slight upswing in inventories. The idea that the economy might cease contraction overall is very dubious, although the money printing and fiscal stimulus might give a brief appearance of improvement. The trouble with these activities is that they are endangering the value of the $US, through the massive expansion of debt and the potentially inflationary increase in the issuance of the $US.

Last edited by London Girl; 06-04-2009 at 06:53 PM..
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Old 06-05-2009, 08:37 AM
 
1,417 posts, read 2,217,580 times
Reputation: 1179
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post
Nope, and this particular aspect of the Real Estate board is really fascinating to me. Not so much that owners and sellers will highlight the good news clippings; but rather that they will completely ignore the bad ones. Another fascinating trend is the perception that one positive data point "cancels out" the other 2 or 3 dozen negative data points.
Agreed.

I think many people (understandably) seize on any snippet of good news but completely fail to consider the wider perspective and actually think about what is really going on out there in global terms.

A nation which has been consuming and continues to consume far in excess of what it produces, which is the world's largest debtor and which has a rapidly devaluing currency is not "recovering".
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