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Old 11-15-2009, 09:41 PM
64 posts, read 153,585 times
Reputation: 26


The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses

Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.

Moderator cut: copyright issues

Last edited by Marka; 11-16-2009 at 07:08 AM..
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Old 11-15-2009, 11:37 PM
Location: Columbia, SC
10,894 posts, read 21,852,908 times
Reputation: 10495
I'll be honest. Read the title, and not the article. My opinion to the title is maybe. The sky won't always be falling.
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Old 11-15-2009, 11:46 PM
532 posts, read 1,459,415 times
Reputation: 465
I think in this Real Estate market the low end areas are being hit the hardest.
In Bergen County NJ many of the low end areas have homes that are being sold @ 50% off the peak price of a few years ago.
More expensive areas are only down maybe 20%.
Look at the NJ shore beach towns ...no deals there.
The tightening of the mortgage market for poor credit and low down payment buyers is having a huge impact.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:26 AM
Location: Arkansas
2,383 posts, read 6,043,460 times
Reputation: 1141
It obviously depends on your area but I feel very secure about home values in my area. I have no doubt in my mind that if I needed to sell my house tomorrow, that I could sell for what I purchased it for (purchased in April '09).
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:49 AM
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,570 posts, read 57,515,730 times
Reputation: 45957
In our area, only the low end and distressed sales are moving.

not uncommon for $800k homes to now sit unsold at $350k

Cash is king, commercial RE will be bad, as those borrowers are forced to re-borrow every 5 yrs, and few lenders out there.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:26 AM
105,725 posts, read 107,717,837 times
Reputation: 79350
in our area the higher end is doing great. we sold off some of our co-ops in manhattan this year at fabulous prices and the hamptons in long island have seen gains the last 2 months,.

its the lower end that seems stagnant here
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:31 AM
9,675 posts, read 11,035,065 times
Reputation: 8386
On guys view of the MTH market. blog | Mark Hanson Advisors

I think the article is CA focused. In our area, the asking price of the higher end values are not coming down because people are attempting to to outwait the downturn. For that matter, some are still priced at 2006 bubble levels. As the article states, someone else's great deal results in areas values tanking; souring mortgage comparisons. Then, you better have a cash offer.

In the 2nd home market on the northern MN lakes area, nothing much is selling >$400K. We have 60 properties that are on the market on our lake alone and 3 distressed properties have re-sold under $250K. The "average value" was $450K on the lake. No re-sales above $600K have happened since 2005 (nothing below $500K since 2006). Now there are no comps within 12 months and the banks won't write any mortgages in that range.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:04 AM
Location: North Carolina
756 posts, read 1,648,055 times
Reputation: 289
The low end is hot in the Phoenix area according to my agent. Perhaps not after incentives disappear next April? Other homes are moving, but slowly. Many people are waiting.

In my neighborhood of homes that NOW are in the $300K - $1,000,000 range (down some 30% - 40% from peaks) there are two that have sat unsold for a year. One is going into foreclosure ($400K) and the other ($600K) has open houses twice a month.

So why is mine for sale? Because you can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket. Ours is a unique home on a great lot in a great neighborhood with the best schools in the state. It is worth a try because all it costs us is having it ready to show any time. A pain, but worth it if the right buyer comes along.
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Old 11-16-2009, 09:09 AM
Location: Columbia, MD
553 posts, read 1,701,076 times
Reputation: 400
I hope all the realtors out there are making hay while the sun presently shines. The first round in this economic disaster was a shot across the bow. We are currently in a dead cat, government stimulus , reactive cyclical bull market which should end soon.

As Brandon points out - the sky is not falling. That was late 2008. The sky has already fallen and the impacts of our government's policy decisions, as well as the reactions of households and businesses are yet to be fully felt.

I understand the logic for why people choose to buy homes in 2009...interest rates are cheap, the dollar is being debased like an inexpensive french lady of the night, there is free tax money available, and prices are way off their historical nominal highs (yet still expensive by historical standards). As Mark Hanson says, this is a slower moving trainwreck [but a trainwreck nonetheless].

blog | Mark Hanson Advisors

But let's make no bones about it - home prices are going lower. Either the dollar deterioration will accelerate or rates will skyrocket and both have a negative impact on home prices in real dollars.
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Old 11-16-2009, 09:16 AM
105,725 posts, read 107,717,837 times
Reputation: 79350
OR the dollar dropping can spurr a little inflation and elevate commodity prices and raise the price of homes... or rising rates could spurr buying as people want to buy now before rates rise further if they were on the fence... or the fact rates rose and made monthley carrying costs higher and those who were looking at more expensive homes now have to look at cheaper homes. that can put pressure on prices of cheaper homes pushing them upward some what...

im not saying any of the above will happen , only its as good of an argument as any other guess

anyone who thinks they know whats next is only deluding themselves and anyone who believes them.

flip a coin, its as good as anyone of us predicting.
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