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Houses in my area (central FL) that were selling for $280K are now $160-$170K. Ouch! I hope things start to turn around. IMHO, I thought things would have leveled off around $200K, but not go below that. I guess there is no predicting the market. For my sake and everyone else, I hope these homes at least get back to around $200K within the next 2 years. I know the market is cyclic, but does anyone have any input?
If we all knew, we would be rich people. It all depends on local markets and the season. Hopefully this spring will be a strong selling season with all the Govt Credits.
It may go to crap again after the incentives dry up next fall.
My area has gone up in recent months ... from the time I submitted the offer to the time escrow closed, new listings were going for $30k higher. Recent closings are $50-70k higher than what I bought just 4 months ago already.
1 mile east, prices have been level over the same period. 10 miles away east, prices are still declining.
My area has dropped about 40% off its peak in 2006. 3 miles away west, prices are about 33% off its peak. 6 miles away northwest, prices have declined just 15% from the peak. Some areas further east ... what was $350k is now just over $100k.
Time is not the real factor, although monetary inflation is. What it really boils down to is, and always has been, location, location, location. Supply and demand of that is really what dictates the price, whether up or down.
ugh...Rakin we talked about this. Remember we are all calling it for July 13, 2010 at 6:32:04. Don't go all rogue on me now...
beckycat the problem is that no one can say what the market will or won't do until the tax credit incentives stop. Then we will get a feel for what the market can do unsupported. In my opinion, no one call say prices are done dropping until we stop with the tax credits. Then we will see if things get messier from there.
And of course we still have 3 years of ARMs still left to reset. That will almost certainly lead to even more foreclosures (in addition to the huge pile of foreclosures the banks are already sitting on). I don't see how prices can truly stabilize until the foreclosures finish working their way through the system.
Houses in my area (central FL) that were selling for $280K are now $160-$170K. Ouch! I hope things start to turn around. IMHO, I thought things would have leveled off around $200K, but not go below that. I guess there is no predicting the market. For my sake and everyone else, I hope these homes at least get back to around $200K within the next 2 years. I know the market is cyclic, but does anyone have any input?
Expecting 10% a year appreciation at the tail end of the collapse of the biggest real estate bubble in over a century is a bit optimistic. Bubble collapses usually end with years of 0% appreciation before slowly returning to the normal 3% or so a year to match inflation. It's great to be hopeful, but I hope you have a backup plan if prices haven't jumped 25% in two years.
Becky, I just went under contract to buy in West Central Fl. I see prices here lower than they were when I left 16 months ago, but for the most part are still not where the salaries offered can support them.
In this area my feeling is that unless there is another hurricane that creates a demand for undamaged homes prices will continue to drop for quite a while. A realtor friend of mine had a property go under contract this week for $800K off of original list.
I'm beginning to have doubts prices grind much more than a few percentage points lower on average. I have no confidence in a real estate recovery, but regardless of what carnage lies out there it seems increasingly possible home prices may have bottomed.
I guess the question is, does the dollar continue to weaken over the next 1-3 years? If so, independent of whatever crises loom on the horizon, I can see prices remaining more or less where they while stagflation or inflation or hyperinflation in other sectors make them cheaper in real dollars.
The lesson of 2009 seems to be this administration and this economic team will inflate at all costs, so even if we have more bailouts and problems, I'm guessing they'll throw more money at it regardless of the consequences, so rates should stay low too.
Now is the time to buy real estate because everyone needs a home and the dollar is weakening in buying power in everything BUT real estate. Look for deals that are in the right location and it will be the best investment you can get. Prices have dropped because too many people thought prices would never stop accelerating and, as one who has lived through this before in 1979-'81, and seen the prices come back up I would counsel to look for a deal with one thing in mind because it has worked for so long: location, location, location.
Peace,
Keith G.
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I hope things start to turn around. IMHO, I thought things would have leveled off around $200K, but not go below that. I guess there is no predicting the market. For my sake and everyone else, I hope these homes at least get back to around $200K within the next 2 years. I know the market is cyclic, but does anyone have any input?
Dollar devaluation in everything but real estate
