"Spring Outlook: Housing Sales Are Looking as Bleak as Ever" (mortgages, condo)

[Delron]

And the pessimism continues...the cutest part though is when the article tries to be optimistic about the latest Obama cramdown plan "which will help underwater homeowners"...I'm sure the numbers of people who actually get help and end up getting substantial principal reductions (and don't end up back in default within 12 months) will be miniscule.

Spring Outlook: Housing Sales Are Looking as Bleak as Ever - Yahoo! Real Estate

Some nuggets:

It's going to be another bad spring for the U.S. housing market-unless you're a buyer.

With prices still falling and more distressed homes hitting the market, many experts are expecting the market to get even worse before it gets better.

"There's been some increase in inventory lately, mostly from distressed sales," says Walter Malony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. "Buyer's are pretty much in the driver's seat."

[Flat2MT]

"Pretty much in the driver's seat".... but not in my neighborhood....

[postmortem]

not in mine either, we haven't hit crisis yet.

[Delron]

Buyers are definitely in the driver's seat. If they choose not to buy, there is no deal. Buyers always set the price/set market value by what they are willing to offer. Sure there are plenty of obstacles that are doing more harm to the market than good - mainly all the various forms of government intervention, but in SoCal the vast, vast majority of buyers are holding out and sitting on the sidelines. It's been an on again/off again Mexican standoff more or less the past few years between them and sellers, but it's been the sellers who have capitulated at every point.

Historically as we all know, mortgages have been about 3x income (3.5-4x in 'more desirable' neighborhoods/areas), because that's what a reasonable person can afford and still have room for emergencies, repairs, vacations and minor details like food.

If you want to look at what a neighborhood can afford, look for the average home or condo rental prices. They are honest reflections of what the community can afford. They'll almost certainly be within 3x - 4x the median household income for the area (obviously, a 5000+ sq ft mansion will be more).