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Old 05-08-2010, 08:46 AM
 
220 posts, read 1,004,332 times
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It plays like a broken record on this forum "home buying is only picking up because of the tax rebate" Yeah right, people are commiting to a 30 year loan because they get a house warming gift, give me a break!

A house warming gift did not turn the economy around, manufacturing is picking up.

A house warming gift did not turn the job market around, employers need people to meet demands.

The stock market was in the need for a pullback after a straight run from 7,000 to 11,000, and now we got that. You can expect to see money on the sidelines enter into the market now.

April Jobs report: Best gain in four years


April Jobs report: Biggest gain since 2006, unemployment up - May. 7, 2010

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Old 05-08-2010, 08:57 AM
 
28,460 posts, read 80,558,784 times
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The naysayers will not believe any evidence. For many that are "shopping the bottom" I think they'll never admit they "missed it"...
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Old 05-08-2010, 10:10 AM
 
1,989 posts, read 4,264,456 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
The naysayers will not believe any evidence. For many that are "shopping the bottom" I think they'll never admit they "missed it"...
Will the people who called bottom in 2008 ever admit they missed it?
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Old 05-08-2010, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Lowcountry
764 posts, read 1,534,571 times
Reputation: 416
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
It plays like a broken record on this forum "home buying is only picking up because of the tax rebate" Yeah right, people are commiting to a 30 year loan because they get a house warming gift, give me a break!

A house warming gift did not turn the economy around, manufacturing is picking up.

A house warming gift did not turn the job market around, employers need people to meet demands.

The stock market was in the need for a pullback after a straight run from 7,000 to 11,000, and now we got that. You can expect to see money on the sidelines enter into the market now.


April Jobs report: Best gain in four years
April Jobs report: Biggest gain since 2006, unemployment up - May. 7, 2010
Job creation is always good...

But the 3% drop last week isn't the end of the carnage in the stock market...depending on what happens with Greece this weekend.

If the EU doesn't work it out, and/or Greece continues to reject austerity measures, Spain and Portugal are next and the domino effect begins. UK and Germany are holding the bag for all this so let's watch this one closely - it could be the beginning of the dreaded 'double dip.'

At this point in time, a lot of investors are actually standing outside the stadium rather than on the sidelines....and it is going to take a lot more than this dip to get them back into the stadium.
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Old 05-08-2010, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Salem, OR
15,186 posts, read 37,859,880 times
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My hubby is in the manufacturing sector and things are definitely picking up but what people need to realize is that those industries impact the rest of the economy in 2-3 years. My hubby saw the layoffs coming 3-4 years before the rest of us because his sector was coming to a screeching halt well before we felt it in the rest of the economy.

Things are improving, but this is going to be a long slow process. The bottom of real estate will last a couple of years so I think it will be hard to miss it, unless you are extremely pessimistic...but then those folks are probably stocking cans and ammo for doomsday.
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Old 05-10-2010, 07:04 AM
 
364 posts, read 788,158 times
Reputation: 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
It plays like a broken record on this forum "home buying is only picking up because of the tax rebate" Yeah right, people are commiting to a 30 year loan because they get a house warming gift, give me a break!

A house warming gift did not turn the economy around, manufacturing is picking up.

A house warming gift did not turn the job market around, employers need people to meet demands.

The stock market was in the need for a pullback after a straight run from 7,000 to 11,000, and now we got that. You can expect to see money on the sidelines enter into the market now.

April Jobs report: Best gain in four years


April Jobs report: Biggest gain since 2006, unemployment up - May. 7, 2010
Maybe the bottom was in first quarter of 2009. May be NOT!!!!.

How do you say it's a bottom when Federal Govt is bribing massively everyone to buy a house. In this process, everyone who was waiting for the last 2/3 years got in. And some (around 30%) of them are now living paycheck-to-paycheck (I know for sure because all of my friends who bought in last 1 years are struggling to balance their budgets). FHA is giving loans to everyone who can afford 3.5% down payment

With massive bailout and free money, everything will go out!!! We have to see what happens when FED runs out of money and some of those new home owners who bought 2007 onward, start to defaults.

I works for a credit rating agency. Our RMBS department has started downgrading some of the loans with 2006-2009 vintage.

We will see. Fingers crossed.
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Old 05-10-2010, 09:17 AM
 
220 posts, read 1,004,332 times
Reputation: 170
The smart money on the sidelines buy on the dips. Can you say "short covering"? Gotta love it!
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Old 05-10-2010, 10:03 AM
 
3,211 posts, read 7,424,310 times
Reputation: 2555
I purchased my home 11-09. I just checked the MLS yesterday using a friends MLS since I don't have access to it. There is NOTHING decent anywhere near my home for the price range I was looking for. Since Nov, it looks like the market here has improved 20k. I do agree the bottom was late 2008 followed by late 2009. It kinda picked up mid 08. I just wish I wasn't so picky with my areas in 08 but I'm just happy I got into a home instead of "waiting til the market hits rock bottom".
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Old 05-10-2010, 11:44 AM
 
Location: Columbia, MD
553 posts, read 1,628,089 times
Reputation: 398
Let's not jump to conclusions either way folks. Of course the Greek/Eurozone situation was going to be corrected. The events of the last couple weeks were manufactured to create volatility to generate massive trading profits for TBTF banks. Mission accomplished.

Leading Economic Indicators still point up, but as Silverfall says, the cracks in the foundation will show up before the basement floods. And right now, there is no evidence the party will stop in 2010.

That doesn't mean anyone bearish isn't right. In fact, I still maintain 2011 will be the beginning of the serial crises which can't be solved with quick easy money or accounting rules changes.

We still haven't seen the impact of all this liquidity out there (with much more added over the weekend) via higher energy and ag/food costs. That is coming soon, like within months at this point. We also haven't seen what happens when the govt stimulus programs run dry, or when taxes go up (VAT, income tax, state and local taxes, sales taxes, property taxes), or when interest rates rise.

So I wouldn't put my money on a "mission accomplished" on fixing the housing problems yet.

At the same time, buying a home now is probably about as good as a time as you will get, so no point in staying on the sidelines waiting for prices to collapse again. For that to happen, there would need to be a massive deflationary event, and the Fed is committed to avoiding that outcome at all costs.
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Old 05-10-2010, 02:07 PM
 
22,769 posts, read 29,187,525 times
Reputation: 14676
For those of you who use the term "Money on the sidelines" :

How does one quantify this? Wouldn't it show up in the macroeconomic data somewhere as an increase in savings or money market accounts? Or does it refer to a $trillion or so in pennies, dollar bills, and confederate money that you figure is probably buried in Mayonnaise jars across American backyards?

Or by "money on the sidelines", are y'all referring to the unencumbered income of young Americans, that you hope will be used to take on, and service new housing debt -- this newly extended credit being the elusive "money on the sidelines" ?

Or do you just make this up as you go along, and you really have no idea what you're talking about?
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