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Old 05-10-2010, 12:19 PM
 
20,185 posts, read 22,729,084 times
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Its burning... I was browsing through their listings and EVERY SINGLE house/condo I clicked on said "Pending" or "Back up offer"... I did not see one place no matter how trashy or broken down it was that was available... whats going on in Southern Cali? I have never seen so many "Pending" sales in my life...
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Old 05-10-2010, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,342 posts, read 90,078,885 times
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High unemployment
Lots of short sales
Lots of foreclosures
Increased taxes
Teachers getting cut
Serious, unsolvable traffic problems
Serious, unsolvable immigration problems
Major corporations' HQ leaving California
5:1 median home price to median income ratios

....all lead to reduced demand, lowered prices, and subsequent sale activity be professional investors and people who were previously priced out and aren't necessarily affected as much by the above list.
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Old 05-10-2010, 01:09 PM
 
3,645 posts, read 10,547,014 times
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My best friend and her dh had to let their house go... it appraised for over $400k in late 2006. When they put it on the market in late '07, it sat and the price slowly went down. They were listed at $249k when the house next door sold for $199k (short sale) in early 2009. The realtor advised them to take it off the market and many realtors in the past 6-12 months were refusing to take new listings.
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Old 05-10-2010, 02:18 PM
 
4,510 posts, read 10,026,194 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
Its burning... I was browsing through their listings and EVERY SINGLE house/condo I clicked on said "Pending" or "Back up offer"... I did not see one place no matter how trashy or broken down it was that was available... whats going on in Southern Cali? I have never seen so many "Pending" sales in my life...
Whose listings?

While inventory is low, there are TONS of trash listings in So Cal that have been sitting for a very long time.

Certain areas have had an uptick in listings.

Certain areas are being manipulated and have almost no listings.
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Old 05-10-2010, 02:22 PM
 
22,769 posts, read 29,307,067 times
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Appalachian state was also HOT, and you see what happened with that.
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Old 05-10-2010, 04:30 PM
 
355 posts, read 1,424,300 times
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EvilNewbie, I too saw what you are seeing...of course that was when I was browsing up to a certain dollar value which would only include properties somewhat closer to market value (still overpriced for the most part). When I would remove the price cap, I would see triple the inventory, with 2/3rds of it vastly overpriced and just sitting, with no "sale pending" or "taking backup offers" on those.

It's mainly the pull forward demand thanks to the federal tax credit. I'm already seeing quite a few new (or re-listed) properties come on the market in the past week and a half that are substantially lower in price (>10% less than pre-May 1).
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Old 05-10-2010, 04:37 PM
 
3,212 posts, read 7,470,212 times
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The under 190k in the area I was looking at does not exist anywhere. I purchased my home under 190k in November and that was when it was getting really tough. I was beyond lucky to get it too. The selling agent said I didn't even have the highest offer but the bank liked mine the best for whatever reason. He said there were around 75 offers on the home.

All I know from looking at MLS listings just yesterday, the IE market has improved greatly since last year. It very well might be inflated but if its inflated now before the summer starts...what happens when it begins?
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:07 PM
 
20,185 posts, read 22,729,084 times
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Yeah, I was looking at under 300k... over that, I didn't look... but I was surprised to see really crappy places that were pending... I mean they were REALLY crappy but after seeing so many crappy homes pending, I was surprise they were moving so fast... don't know about homes over 300k though...
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:21 PM
 
355 posts, read 1,424,300 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
Yeah, I was looking at under 300k... over that, I didn't look... but I was surprised to see really crappy places that were pending... I mean they were REALLY crappy but after seeing so many crappy homes pending, I was surprise they were moving so fast... don't know about homes over 300k though...
Well under 300K in SoCal, of course it's been moving. Anyone with a pulse can qualify for a 3.5% down FHA loan (and use the $8K "instant rebate" fed tax credit to cover most of that 3.5%, effectively once again having no skin in the game...since we learned NOTHING!!!).

You should see the "low priced" crap in the high end markets that did the same thing - because it is/was priced "low" relative to 05-08 prices, within the final weeks of the federal credit expiring ALL of the lowest 33% of the market in those areas were "pending" "back up offers" etc.

But the delusionally priced stuff, usually 10-25% off peak pricing (at best) and some still at peak pricing or beyond, has sat for years now.

Don't limit your search to $300K and I'm sure you will see PLENTY of stuff in the areas you are looking at that is just sitting rotting in the California sun.

Good luck, my compadres!
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Old 05-11-2010, 07:12 PM
 
575 posts, read 1,712,059 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Delron View Post
EvilNewbie, I too saw what you are seeing...of course that was when I was browsing up to a certain dollar value which would only include properties somewhat closer to market value (still overpriced for the most part). When I would remove the price cap, I would see triple the inventory, with 2/3rds of it vastly overpriced and just sitting, with no "sale pending" or "taking backup offers" on those.

It's mainly the pull forward demand thanks to the federal tax credit. I'm already seeing quite a few new (or re-listed) properties come on the market in the past week and a half that are substantially lower in price (>10% less than pre-May 1).


I agree that many buyers were pulled forward wanting to get in on the federal tax credit, but don't expect that to subside just yet, can't leave the market to stabilize on it's own overnight... the CA version went into effect 5/1

2010 Tax Credit for New Home / First-Time Buyer


Inventory is actually pretty low in many areas, especially if you're looking in a reasonable (by CA standards) price range. Personally I think there's plenty of shadow inventory out there though. Whether the banks can continue their amend, pretend, extend nonsense long enough to trickle it out slowly enough to keep prices inflated above what they probably should be remains to be seen. They're certainly doing it for now.
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