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I think this is a valid observation
The behavior described would be that of emotional reasoning
For example here is a correction to prior post divorce rate for americans is not 14% see frame #61
The correct supported stat is 90% of Americans marry by age 50
Half fail
This is an enormous emotional issue for many
Interesting point illustrated as stated by the op if the example is false as long as it agrees with their opinion aka that divorce rate is exaggerated
They will not question the error and they did not not one challenged the stat bek it agreed with their opinion
Location: RI, MA, VT, WI, IL, CA, IN (that one sucked), KY
41,936 posts, read 36,962,945 times
Reputation: 40635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948
30 % is not supported by stats 40 to 50% is
Cdf etiquitte if you call me out provide link
Well, to get married a second time, you have to be married a first time. The real crux is what are the odds of getting divorced if you get married the first time.
It is about 30% divorce rate (as of early 00s (it peaked at about 40% in early 80s)) for first marriages... so 70% won't be divorced. People that get remarried get divorced again (at a higher rate) so that drives the overall rate up.
The stats are compiled from census data which can be found online, but you'd need to weed through the tables. The NIH publishes findings based on those studies. I've not seen the 2010 census data compiled, but the 2010 census data was. A pop article based on that data can be found here:
Excerpt: It is now clear that the divorce rate in first marriages probably peaked at about 40 percent for first marriages around 1980 and has been declining since to about 30 percent in the early 2000s. This is a dramatic difference. Rather than viewing marriage as a 50-50 shot in the dark it can be viewed as having a 70 percent likelihood of succeeding.
The numbers are even lower if you're over 20, or college educated... they actually are surprisingly low when you look at the breakdowns (NHI publishes these online).
There is some other interesting long term studies, such as the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, that follow a single cohort through time. Of course, rates vary, but that particular study found less than 27% of those that married, with a bachelors degree, divorced their spouse.
Last edited by timberline742; 05-14-2014 at 01:35 PM..
Location: RI, MA, VT, WI, IL, CA, IN (that one sucked), KY
41,936 posts, read 36,962,945 times
Reputation: 40635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth
It depends on if you're counting only 1st marriages, or if you're taking all marriages together.
That is why it never made sense to me. You don't get to a second marriage if you don't divorce in the first (outside of a spouse dying)... only the first marriage rates really matter for these types of conversations.
That is why it never made sense to me. You don't get to a second marriage if you don't divorce in the first (outside of a spouse dying)... only the first marriage rates really matter for these types of conversations.
Uh-oh, I might be skewing the stats because I got married in the US and divorced in Canada!
Uh-oh, I might be skewing the stats because I got married in the US and divorced in Canada!
Troublemaker!
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