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Let us know how that works out for you. Loch Ness is in Scotland.
Good one. Damn it! Indeed you are right of course...
We'll be in Ireland for a wedding in October, THEN our plans are to go to Scotland where no doubt our chances of seeing the Loch Ness Monster will be greatly improved.
Never all too happy about making a goof like this one, but I always appreciate those who love to keep others "honest." Thanks.
Currently the only evidence we have available to us on the subject of life, is right here on Earth. As it happens, on Earth at least, life is supremely abundant. Millions of living species to examine. Tens of millions or perhaps hundreds of millions of species have gone extinct. And out of those many millions of species over the course of billions of years, how many species have had just the right physical attributs combined with the intelligence necessary to create high technology?
ONE! One species. If any of the other species that have gone extinct were technologically capable, they left no evidence of it.
So we are left to conclude that species capable of the incredible level of high technology required for interstellar travel is incredibly rare.
Now, let's consider the distances. The nearest star to us, other than the sun, is Proxima Centauri, which is about 4.22 light-years away. One light year is about 5.88 trillion miles. Which means the closest star system to us is more than 24 trillion miles away. Proxima Centauri has at least one Earth sized (slightly larger than the Earth) exoplanet that COULD conceivably support life. What are the odds that this planet, Proxima Centauri b, has intelligent life capable of crossing 24 trillion miles to reach Earth? Very VERY poor!
The Voyager spacecraft, which was launched in 1967, has left our solar system and is now in interstellar space. Voyager is traveling at about 40,000 miles per hour. Voyager is not heading in the direction of Proxima Centauri, our nearest neighbor, but if it was it would take almost 70,000 years to get there.
The only place that we are certain that has life is right here in Earth. Current estimates indicate that life first arose on Earth about 3.5 billion years ago. There has been absolutely NO evidence discovered so far which would indicate that any other species besides humans have been capable of creating high technology. One species out of many millions of species over the course of billions of years. The implication is that a species with all the necessary qualifications for developing high technology, not merely intelligence, but size and physical dexterity, is extraordinary RARE. And then there are the trillions and trillions of miles between stars to overcome.
Given the odds of a species evolving the right combination of high intelligence and the physiological characteristics necessary to create high technology in the first place, it may well be that such a thing might occur less than one time per galaxy. In which case, the chances of two such species ever meeting is astonishingly low.
So when one is considering the possibility that the Earth is being visited by extraterrestrial beings, a person can either choose to use their powers of intelligence and reasoning... or they can buy what THIS GUY is peddling!
Yeah but...
Of course I agree with your well laid out synopsis here, I always also think about how likely it can be that life only exists on Earth or that more intelligent life isn't also somewhere out there in the universe. Along with all the significant numbers you highlight, consider how far we have come in terms of speed of travel since about the time we discovered fire. Think about how fast our world is changing and what possibilities have opened for us as a result of technology, over such a short period of time. Extrapolate from there in exponential manner like we're seeing more recently, and where are we not all that long a time from now? (If we as a species survive to see the day).
Then think about the vast expanse of the universe and the many billions of galaxies. How can something like life, proven possible here on Earth, not also be both possible and PROBABLE on so many other planets or "places" elsewhere in the universe where the right conditions for life (as we know it or otherwise) allow such a thing to also emerge?
Not sure how to calculate such a probability, but with so many billions of possibilities outside our ability to see let alone fathom, seems the odds are improved. Also with respect to speed of travel. Why limit the possibility of space travel with our very limited progress on this planet so far when all such capabilities are forever expanding and improving for us, sometimes seemingly at the "speed of light." Not sure we know exactly what those speed limits are yet either...
One thing to consider is that, even if there is 'life' somewhere else, which as you say, seems very possible, unless 'that place(s)" are indentical to our earth, those life forms would probably not be recognizable or comparable enough to us to communicate with.
One thing to consider is that, even if there is 'life' somewhere else, which as you say, seems very possible, unless 'that place(s)" are indentical to our earth, those life forms would probably not be recognizable or comparable enough to us to communicate with.
Odds of life somewhere else are certainly higher than odds that life somewhere else would be anything like here. Think about it...
Not all that long ago, life here on Earth was dominated by dinosaurs with no sign of intelligent life anything like we humans represent today. What would an alien have thought about the alternative life forms they would have encountered then as compared to today? Entirely different!
Of course the "building blocks" of life would have been the same on Earth then same as now, but even what makes for life somewhere else in the universe is not likely to be the same as here, at all.
Of course I agree with your well laid out synopsis here, I always also think about how likely it can be that life only exists on Earth or that more intelligent life isn't also somewhere out there in the universe. Along with all the significant numbers you highlight, consider how far we have come in terms of speed of travel since about the time we discovered fire. Think about how fast our world is changing and what possibilities have opened for us as a result of technology, over such a short period of time. Extrapolate from there in exponential manner like we're seeing more recently, and where are we not all that long a time from now? (If we as a species survive to see the day).
Then think about the vast expanse of the universe and the many billions of galaxies. How can something like life, proven possible here on Earth, not also be both possible and PROBABLE on so many other planets or "places" elsewhere in the universe where the right conditions for life (as we know it or otherwise) allow such a thing to also emerge?
Not sure how to calculate such a probability, but with so many billions of possibilities outside our ability to see let alone fathom, seems the odds are improved. Also with respect to speed of travel. Why limit the possibility of space travel with our very limited progress on this planet so far when all such capabilities are forever expanding and improving for us, sometimes seemingly at the "speed of light." Not sure we know exactly what those speed limits are yet either...
It's difficult to calculate the probability of alien life, it's true. There is a huge hole in our knowledge. First, there needs to be a planet where conditions are suitable for life to evolve from non living material. Quantum mechanics drives all change, and quantum mechanics should be constant throughout the universe. But we have yet to conclusively discover even microscopic life in our own solar system, other than right here on Earth. And then we have the example of the Earth, where life is incredibly abundant. Even here only humans have managed to create the sort of technology where space travel is possible. The odds against a technologically advanced species arising appear to be incredibly high, and the distances between the stars is mind boggling. We have been continuously sending intelligently created radio signals out into space for about 100 years now. TV signals for about 70 years. Which means that our signals are currently 100 light years from Earth. Yet we have never received any radio signals from outside of the Earth that are clearly not natural in origin. If there are technologically advanced civilizations out there, it would appear that they are so far away that no evidence of their existence has yet reached us.
Star Trek is a work of fiction. The writers incorporate ideas that are derived from current scientific concepts. But at the end of the day, Star Trek is a work of pure imagination.
It's difficult to calculate the probability of alien life, it's true. There is a huge hole in our knowledge. First, there needs to be a planet where conditions are suitable for life to evolve from non living material. Quantum mechanics drives all change, and quantum mechanics should be constant throughout the universe. But we have yet to conclusively discover even microscopic life in our own solar system, other than right here on Earth. And then we have the example of the Earth, where life is incredibly abundant. Even here only humans have managed to create the sort of technology where space travel is possible. The odds against a technologically advanced species arising appear to be incredibly high, and the distances between the stars is mind boggling. We have been continuously sending intelligently created radio signals out into space for about 100 years now. TV signals for about 70 years. Which means that our signals are currently 100 light years from Earth. Yet we have never received any radio signals from outside of the Earth that are clearly not natural in origin. If there are technologically advanced civilizations out there, it would appear that they are so far away that no evidence of their existence has yet reached us.
Star Trek is a work of fiction. The writers incorporate ideas that are derived from current scientific concepts. But at the end of the day, Star Trek is a work of pure imagination.
Not that I am not a fan too.
our current level of consciousness is primitive and barbaric.
as evidenced by still practicing war.
when we have reached a level of consciousness (and we are getting there)
of peace on this planet, then other life forms who are far more advanced than we are, will present themselves to us in a more widespread manner.
until then it is not safe or wise for them to do so.
would you wander into the most dangerous neighborhood just to say hi?
hardly. what would happen if you did. get the picture?
we are a young life form, as life forms go in the galaxy. other life forms are far more advanced, including competence in multi-dimensional travel. physical craft for travel are not needed. as we advance (to where they are now), our technology will catch up as we identify and verify and begin to work with multi dimensional aspects of our reality.
our current level of consciousness is primitive and barbaric.
as evidenced by still practicing war.
when we have reached a level of consciousness (and we are getting there)
of peace on this planet, then other life forms who are far more advanced than we are, will present themselves to us in a more widespread manner.
until then it is not safe or wise for them to do so.
would you wander into the most dangerous neighborhood just to say hi?
hardly. what would happen if you did. get the picture?
we are a young life form, as life forms go in the galaxy. other life forms are far more advanced, including competence in multi-dimensional travel. physical craft for travel are not needed. as we advance (to where they are now), our technology will catch up as we identify and verify and begin to work with multi dimensional aspects of our reality.
While I find some logic in your premise, you state it as fact.
While I find some logic in your premise, you state it as fact.
Me thinks you and others have more issues than Playboy Magazine...
What's wrong with stating an opinion as fact?
Dodgers are going to win the World Series this year!
Anyone really need it explained this is opinion?
Someone with such an opinion might like to hear why you think the Dodgers won't win the World Series this year, fine. But to again have it explained what is fact vs opinion? Chances are they already know that...
It's difficult to calculate the probability of alien life, it's true. There is a huge hole in our knowledge. First, there needs to be a planet where conditions are suitable for life to evolve from non living material. Quantum mechanics drives all change, and quantum mechanics should be constant throughout the universe. But we have yet to conclusively discover even microscopic life in our own solar system, other than right here on Earth. And then we have the example of the Earth, where life is incredibly abundant. Even here only humans have managed to create the sort of technology where space travel is possible. The odds against a technologically advanced species arising appear to be incredibly high, and the distances between the stars is mind boggling. We have been continuously sending intelligently created radio signals out into space for about 100 years now. TV signals for about 70 years. Which means that our signals are currently 100 light years from Earth. Yet we have never received any radio signals from outside of the Earth that are clearly not natural in origin. If there are technologically advanced civilizations out there, it would appear that they are so far away that no evidence of their existence has yet reached us.
Star Trek is a work of fiction. The writers incorporate ideas that are derived from current scientific concepts. But at the end of the day, Star Trek is a work of pure imagination.
Not that I am not a fan too.
Wait! Say what?
Star Trek is fiction?
Almost went this morning without learning anything in this forum again, but now I must sign off with this bombshell of a notion to ponder. Not that I am accepting what you claim here as the truth mind you. Just because you say so doesn't make it so, but usually you are not one to promote untruths, so you've got my mind turning with this one...
Me thinks you and others have more issues than Playboy Magazine...
What's wrong with stating an opinion as fact?
Dodgers are going to win the World Series this year!
Anyone really need it explained this is opinion?
Someone with such an opinion might like to hear why you think the Dodgers won't win the World Series this year, fine. But to again have it explained what is fact vs opinion? Chances are they already know that...
The difference between an opinion and fact is key to any discussion about religious differences. The people I worry about most are those who can't distinguish between fact and faith.
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