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Old 09-20-2012, 08:06 AM
 
31,025 posts, read 36,998,172 times
Reputation: 13315

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prairieparson View Post
The ultimate cause here is Obama. I didn't read the article because I'm already aware of how bad the economy is, and how bleak our future is. Greece is our future if we don't get a new President and a different direction in leadership. Debt is bad. More debt is worse.
I hear ya, Iraq and Afghanistan were real debt busters especially when funded off the balance sheet. Horrible fiscal policy. If he hadn't made all those people have babies after the second world war we wouldn't be having this baby boomer population surge wrecking havoc with SS and Medicare and as the thread title discusses the threats to.
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Old 09-20-2012, 09:07 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
4,193 posts, read 4,671,446 times
Reputation: 7817
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
The above is bizarre reasoning at best. It is a normal adult thing to disclose one's source at the outset. A couple of times I have started a thread with a link to a Los Angeles Times article. The thread title started with the words, "Los Angeles Times:" and continued with the subject matter of the article. Or for example if someone is quoting the well-known economist Paul Krugman, it is common practice to start the thread title in the same manner, with the name "Paul Krugman". So when I added the source in my post #2 in this thread, it was for the knowledge and convenience of other readers; it was neither non-adult nor a favorite sport.

Nor was it a thread killer, unless everybody else shares my disdain for the particular website. This thread seems to be doing just fine. Your argument that all sources are more or less equal because they are all biased is worse than bizarre; it is downright idiotic and dangerous because it implies there is no way to make rational choices. The New York Times is not "equal" to the EconomicCollapseBlog even if the New York Times has not acheived a probably unachievable perfect objectivity. The NY Times is a credible source and the other is not. Would you give equal billing to the site for the American Nazi Party? After all, in your book, "EVERY source is touting an overt or hidden agenda", so we can just go ahead and lump the American Nazi Party right in there with "every source", making it the equivalent of the New York Times.

And besides you have contradicted yourself. You accuse the posters whom you are attacking (me, for one) of lacking any "credible back-up of their own". Therefore, you admit there is such a thing as credibility. I have read the EconomicCollapseBlog a number of times and concluded that it lacks all credibility and that its bias is extreme; therefore, I will not read it again. That is not the same as saying all claims for possible economic collapse lack credibility; there is such a thing as the rational discussion of the matter.
I meant to rep you the other day. Because of your initial reply, I was able to avoid clicking my way to a site that I consider equivalent to porn. I avoid those types of sites because 1) I don't want to start receiving emails related to doom and gloom stuff, and 2) I don't want to add my click to the site's counter.

I appreciated your warning. You did not censor the link in any way, you merely disclosed the source. Thank you.
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Old 09-20-2012, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,606,242 times
Reputation: 27642
Quote:
Originally Posted by lenora View Post
I meant to rep you the other day. Because of your initial reply, I was able to avoid clicking my way to a site that I consider equivalent to porn. I avoid those types of sites because 1) I don't want to start receiving emails related to doom and gloom stuff, and 2) I don't want to add my click to the site's counter.

I appreciated your warning. You did not censor the link in any way, you merely disclosed the source. Thank you.
A site can't get your email based on you opening their page. You would have to give them your email.
Just FYI.
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Old 09-20-2012, 09:52 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 15,925,757 times
Reputation: 19273
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Pipes View Post
Neither one of you are open minded enough to let readers decide for themselves the value of this thread so you decide to kill it. THAT is called censorship. Not something I'd guess that you'd like done to your threads.
No, it is called truth, integrity, reality, logic and reason.

And I would never worry about it being done to my threads, since none are based on fantasy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Pipes View Post
I have a point of view to share so.......
No, you don't.

Are you admitting that you are the owner or administrator of economiccollapsebarfbag?

Because, if you are the owner, administrator or other member, your failure to disclose that with each and every thread you start and post you make is unethical and intellectually dishonest.

And if you are not the owner, administrator or other member, then it isn't your point of view, rather it is the view of another that you have misappropriated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Pipes View Post
You also have the right to read my topics and not comment or better yet read my topics and offer a different point of view as part of a robust open discussion.
And I have an ethical and moral duty, and obligation, to call out liars, propaganda and disinformation artists.

The last time propaganda artists worked their magic and others stood by silently, the World was at war for 13+ years and millions of people died and millions more were injured.

You ought to be old enough to remember.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Pipes View Post
When people try to shut down a topic as you have done here ...
Then they have done forum members on City-Data and the world a tremendous favor, which could never be repaid. And those people are some happy people in Texas and people riding escort and math wizards, and I trust them....I do not trust you and never will.

Shaming....

Mircea

Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
It seems to be a regular favorite sport of some posters to attack viewpoints out of hand, without any supporting sources to their own viewpoint. That is a thread-killer, or at least their attempt at it. These regulars just love to pounce on what they call "tinfoil hats" and "doomsayers" without any credible backup of their own. Let's remember that EVERY source is touting an overt or hidden agenda, whether it's the economic collapse websites pushing gold, or other sources pushing stocks. Agendas abound, and very rarely is there a truly objective (agenda-free) source to be found in the media or anywhere else.

In the meantime, can the real thread killers stand up and offer their counter-argument in an adult way.
How many times is it necessary to debunk and destroy the propaganda spun by economiccollapsebarfbag and GlobalRetards.com?

Those are the only two sites he links to, except for an occasional link to Dweeb2020.

There is nothing about Economics on that site. It's just a sick person (or persons) preying on the weak, the fearful, the ignorant, the uninformed and trying to take them for their money, which is really bizarre, considering the host server has a bunch of "Come-to-Jesus" sites on it. And it's the same crap and nonsense over and over and over and over. All he does is take previous blogs and recycle them with a new name.

I always thought you were very intelligent, and if not well-educated, then extremely well-read, since you since to go right to the crux of the matter and ask the most pertinent questions.

If people are willing to give credence to economicbarfblog, then certainly they'd be willing to give credence to....

Since Hitler committed suicide and ended WW II, shouldn't Hitler be posthumously awarded the Nobel Peace Prize?

Same level of intelligence and discourse.

Disappointed...


Mircea

Quote:
Originally Posted by anifani821 View Post
Well, so what is the consensus.

What IS going to happen with Social Security funds in the future?
There is no consensus and I don't believe there is anyway possible to build a consensus, since people don't understand this....

42 USC § 402 - Old-age and survivors insurance benefit payments


(a) Old-age insurance benefits Every individual who—
(1) is a fully insured individual (as defined in section 414 (a) of this title),
(2) has attained age 62, and
(3) has filed application for old-age insurance benefits or was entitled to disability insurance benefits for the month preceding the month in which he attained retirement age (as defined in section 416 (l) of this title), shall be entitled to an old-age insurance benefit for each month, beginning with—

I highlighted the relevant parts.

Inevitably, some very disingenuous people lacking a moral compass will eventually come by and try to steer the issue to ROI (return on investment). In the event of my absence, I would encourage to ask them to "Calculate the ROI on your auto insurance and get back to us."

On the matter of what is going to happen, very simply, the Social Security Trust Fund will expire sometime between 2023-2024. Note that the Social Security Administration's High-Cost Assumptions show the Combined OASDI Trust Fund dead in the water in 2027.

When that happens, the Social Security Administration (hereinafter 'SSA')will not be able to collect enough FICA taxes to pay Social Security and Social Security Disability benefits. According to SSA, everyone's benefits will be involuntarily reduced by 25%, meaning you'd only be collecting 75% of your originally calculated benefits.

My calculations show it to be 28%-32%, as of now. Economic conditions could result in that being slightly higher, but in no case would I anticipate it being greater than 40% (meaning you'd only collect 60% of your scheduled benefits in that situation).

The reason SSA is wrong, is due to the fact that their economic assumptions are all wrong. For example, under the High-Cost Assumptions which show the Trust Fund dying in 2027, SSA incorrectly assumes that the US economy will average 4.7% GDP for 60 consecutive quarters.

That is impossible. Best case scenario, GDP averages 2.89% for 60 consecutive quarters. That results in a short-fall of several $TRILLION in cash.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anifani821 View Post
I would like to see a sensible analysis of how the Feds' latest announcement will affect (or propel) everything from inflation to consumer loans, business loans, national debt . . .
I would like to indulge you, but that is not practical at this time.

What I can tell you is that a little over 2 years ago I determined that the global economy could absorb $9 TRILLION to $13 TRILLION "excess" US Dollars before Real Inflation starts to exceed 10% annually (on average).

Data isn't readily available for all countries/regions, and what is often, uh, lacking (in accuracy).

The current situation in Europe skews the Coefficient of Absorption (something the idiot at economicpukeblog knows absolutely nothing about).

You can dismiss any references to Zimbabwe or the Wiemar Republic as idiots talking out of both sides of their neck.

Zimbabwe is a closed monetary system. The Zimbabwean Dollar is not one of the international reserve currencies; not one of the international currencies of trade; and not traded on the world market. The only people on Earth who use the Zimbabwean Dollar are Zimbabweans.

We can say the same thing about the German Marks issued during the Wiemar Republic, except that the German Mark was internationally recognized and traded (at least in Europe and in parts of Africa -- the German colonies -- so that is not a completely closed monetary system but it is limited).

On the other hand, the US Dollar is internationally recognized and traded on the world market; it is one of the international reserve currencies; and it is one of the international currencies of trade, meaning that people, like Zimbabweans buy US Dollars to pay for their imports and trade on the world market.

Okay, so if Zimbabweans are the only people on Earth to use the Zimbabwean Dollar, then it printing excess Dollars will cause hyper-Real Inflation.

But that isn't the US. We have to determine what is the maximum amount of US Dollars that could be used globally, and that is the Coefficient of Absorption (after we do other fun acrobatics with math and spend hours entering numbers in a spreadsheet).

The problem will come around 2023. When Europe and the rest of the world comes out of this recessionary cycle the US Dollar become excess, and that's when you'll see hyper-Real Inflation. I'm predicting about 35%-45% annually, which would be worse than the Real Inflation in the post WW I era but not nearly as bad as Real Inflation following the 1st Great Depression of the 19th Century and the start of the Civil War (which was running as high as 400% in some parts of the North and South).

Most people confuse Cost Inflation with Real Inflation. You are having problems with Cost Inflation now (and have for a while and will continue to have problems), but you are not experiencing Real Inflation.

How can you tell the difference?

Cost Inflation only affects a limited number of items, specifically those items that are in short supply but high demand -- like corn for ethanol and for food. That drives up the price of food and fuel, but not the price of clothing or furniture or cars.

When you have Real Inflation, the price of everything rises, as in every thing, as in every single thing you see, touch and use in the world around you.

Your auto insurance, your cable/satellite, cell-phone, broadband, all food, all clothing, all cosmetics, all health and beauty aids, all pharmaceutical drugs, all paper, pencils, pens, markers, nails, screws nuts, bolts, gasoline, electricity, natural gas, water, healthcare, all electronics, all non-electronics, housing, rents, books, e-books.....every thing rises in price....every thing.

And, yes, that includes your wage/salary, except there is a lag time, so you get soaked, and then your wage rise, but prices also rose, so you continue to get soaked and when the game ends, you've lost your shirt in most cases -- you never get that last bump, because prices start to deflate.

So you monthly cell-phone bill is $60, and then it jumps 38% to $83/month, and then the year after it jumps 41% to $116/month and then the year after that it jumps 35% to $157/month.

That's Real Inflation.

Sensibly...

Mircea

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Pipes View Post
Now that's a mouthful of truth!

If one considers the number of people that depend on SS all of a sudden being cut off ! There would be an armed uprising the next day!!
And, pray tell, why would they be suddenly cut off?

Do you understand how Social Security is funded?

Apparently not, but thanks for fear-mongering.

"...foreseeable future it is now being projected by some analysts that Social Security will be bankrupt by 2023."

Some analysts? I was the first and only to predict 2023. Over one year ago before Johnny-Come-Lately (Wednesday, July 4, 2012 and he didn't even do it right)

"The only way that the Social Security system is going to be able to stay solvent is for the Social Security trust fund to earn a healthy level of interest."

That's a lie.

As I have repeatedly demonstrated, the issue with Social Security -- as with all Ponzi-Schemes -- is not the amount of interest, but rather the amount of funds collected.

The reason the Silent Generation got to collect Social Security benefits is due to the fact that
the Silent Generation was slammed with 520% FICA tax increase to make sure Social Security would be there for them.

The Boomers suffered a 71% FICA tax increase to make sure Social Security would be there for them.

How much of a FICA tax increase was dumped on Generation X-Box and Generation Y-Work?

0%.

In fact, they are currently enjoying a 2% FICA tax rebate....at the expense of the rest of the country.

"Unfortunately, the ultra-low interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve is making this impossible."

Another lie. The Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the Social Security Trust Fund.

Each payroll period, an employer puts FUTA, FICA and SECA taxes collected into special escrow accounts. At the end of each quarter, March 30, June 30, September 30 and December 30, the money is transferred from the escrow account to the appropriate agency, in this case SSA. SSA then pays benefits out of the account. At the end of the quarter, whatever money is left over in the account is then transferred to the US Treasury Department, who then issues a Special-Issue US Treasury Security for that amount.

The Federal Reserve does not set the interest rate Trust Fund special securities.

Quote:
The rate of interest on special issues is determined by a formula enacted in 1960. The rate is determined at the end of each month and applies to new investments in the following month. The average of the 12 monthly interest rates for 2010 was 2.760 percent. The effective interest rate (the average rate of return on all investments) for the OASI and DI Trust Funds, combined, was 4.6 percent in 2010. This higher effective rate resulted because the funds hold special-issue bonds acquired in past years when interest rates were higher.
How Social Security Trust Funds earn interest

See Marketable Interest Rates here....

Government - August

Treasury Bills 0.131
Treasury Notes 2.002
Treasury Bonds 5.383
TIPS 1.443
FFB 4.625

So, what exactly was the value of the crap you posted?

Curious...

Mircea

Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
The above is bizarre reasoning at best. It is a normal adult thing to disclose one's source at the outset. A couple of times I have started a thread with a link to a Los Angeles Times article. The thread title started with the words, "Los Angeles Times:" and continued with the subject matter of the article. Or for example if someone is quoting the well-known economist Paul Krugman, it is common practice to start the thread title in the same manner, with the name "Paul Krugman".
Well, there you go.

You hold me to an higher standard; I hold you to an higher standard; everyone else holds everyone else to an higher standard and everyone benefits, and quite possibly, maybe some good will happen, and if not, then maybe we can hope that someone isn't preyed upon and taken advantage of.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
So when I added the source in my post #2 in this thread, it was for the knowledge and convenience of other readers; it was neither non-adult nor a favorite sport.

And it was the right thing to do.....


Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
Nor was it a thread killer, unless everybody else shares my disdain for the particular website. This thread seems to be doing just fine. Your argument that all sources are more or less equal because they are all biased is worse than bizarre; it is downright idiotic and dangerous because it implies there is no way to make rational choices.
Indeed.

Bias is quite normal (to a point) and I don't mind it. Knowing that a source is biased allows me to digest it better, since I know how things are slanted.

It also allows me to ignore certain sources that are continually and repeatedly wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
The New York Times is not "equal" to the EconomicCollapseBlog even if the New York Times has not acheived a probably unachievable perfect objectivity.
Point well taken.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
The NY Times is a credible source and the other is not. Would you give equal billing to the site for the American Nazi Party? After all, in your book, "EVERY source is touting an overt or hidden agenda", so we can just go ahead and lump the American Nazi Party right in there with "every source", making it the equivalent of the New York Times.
Nice bit o' logic there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
And besides you have contradicted yourself. You accuse the posters whom you are attacking (me, for one) of lacking any "credible back-up of their own". Therefore, you admit there is such a thing as credibility. I have read the EconomicCollapseBlog a number of times and concluded that it lacks all credibility and that its bias is extreme; therefore, I will not read it again. That is not the same as saying all claims for possible economic collapse lack credibility; there is such a thing as the rational discussion of the matter.
Couldn't rep you again (gotta spread the love around), which is most unfortunate, because you made an excellent argument.

Praising...

Mircea
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Old 09-21-2012, 06:01 AM
 
5,617 posts, read 14,314,505 times
Reputation: 2781
Quote:
Originally Posted by BLS2753 View Post
I'm more concerned with getting cancer or heart disease, than I am my SS checks being cut-off.

The resulting social unrest of such an occurrence, would dwarf any other event in American history.
I agree!! I am more worried about cancer!
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Old 09-21-2012, 06:31 AM
Status: "Support the Mining Law of 1872" (set 18 days ago)
 
Location: Cody, WY
10,059 posts, read 12,300,093 times
Reputation: 20676
I believe that some historical background is appropriate for the individual who wishes to understand causes and effects of interest rates. This book has no agenda beyond that of giving the analyst more ammunition. It's a classic. At least take a look at the "Look Inside" link. It is worth the price and it's a fascinating history.

A History of Interest Rates,Fourth Edition (Wiley Finance): Sidney Homer,Richard Sylla: 9780471732839: Amazon.com: Books#_

Last edited by Happy in Wyoming; 09-21-2012 at 06:42 AM..
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Chicago
5,559 posts, read 3,986,418 times
Reputation: 2196
Fed policy is transferring money from savers (e.g. retirees) to borrowers. It is a form of wealth redistribution. Punishing those who are thrifty (e.g. those who saved for retirement) in order to benefit those who spend freely, even if there is no way to ever repay the money they borrow. Of course, bankers benefit the most, since they get to borrow at 0% and lend at 4% or 16% or whatever.

The evidence is in the facts. The wealth gap in the U.S. is the highest it has been in 40 years. Medium family income is now at its lowest in over 20 years. People are working longer hours for less. It is very insidious in that the corrosive tax that the Feds have placed on savers particularly those who are in retirement will gradually lower the standard of living for everyone. So gradually, that it will go unnoticed and in years time l retirees will be living very limited lives because all of their wealth will have withered away.

Now there is something we can do. We can begin to coalesce and begin to fight back. Their have been numerous op-eds in the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers recently discussing this issue. It is time to come together and fight back with a single voice. The AARP will not do it. They just sell insurance and other products for financial institutions. We need and organization that will at least fight to preserve some of our assets before they just wither away.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:22 AM
 
58,896 posts, read 46,107,912 times
Reputation: 36564
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Pipes View Post
Neither one of you are open minded enough to let readers decide for themselves the value of this thread so you decide to kill it. THAT is called censorship. Not something I'd guess that you'd like done to your threads.

My mom always told me that if you can't say something nice keep your mouth shut! Works here for me!
Claiming that they are killing the thread by disclosing the source is a hillariously damning self-admission of just how crappy that site is.

Claiming censorship when there was none and then telling people to keep their mouth shut....dude, that's just priceless irony.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:14 AM
 
31,025 posts, read 36,998,172 times
Reputation: 13315
Quote:
Originally Posted by richrf View Post
Fed policy is transferring money from savers (e.g. retirees) to borrowers. It is a form of wealth redistribution. Punishing those who are thrifty (e.g. those who saved for retirement) in order to benefit those who spend freely, even if there is no way to ever repay the money they borrow. Of course, bankers benefit the most, since they get to borrow at 0% and lend at 4% or 16% or whatever.

The evidence is in the facts. The wealth gap in the U.S. is the highest it has been in 40 years. Medium family income is now at its lowest in over 20 years. People are working longer hours for less. It is very insidious in that the corrosive tax that the Feds have placed on savers particularly those who are in retirement will gradually lower the standard of living for everyone. So gradually, that it will go unnoticed and in years time l retirees will be living very limited lives because all of their wealth will have withered away.

Now there is something we can do. We can begin to coalesce and begin to fight back. Their have been numerous op-eds in the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers recently discussing this issue. It is time to come together and fight back with a single voice. The AARP will not do it. They just sell insurance and other products for financial institutions. We need and organization that will at least fight to preserve some of our assets before they just wither away.
While I agree 100% that Fed policy is hard on savers it is also beneficial to investors.
Thus it is the individuals choice and not Fed mandate which of the two you are. There are many retired investors enjoying the market runup and even the current state of high yield bonds etc. There beta is not really all that high. Down the road who knows but bonds held in a Mutual fund or ETF do have a fairly solid amount of liquidity.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Chicago
5,559 posts, read 3,986,418 times
Reputation: 2196
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
While I agree 100% that Fed policy is hard on savers it is also beneficial to investors.
Thus it is the individuals choice and not Fed mandate which of the two you are. There are many retired investors enjoying the market runup and even the current state of high yield bonds etc. There beta is not really all that high. Down the road who knows but bonds held in a Mutual fund or ETF do have a fairly solid amount of liquidity.
The net effect, in total, is that the rich are getting richer (the wealth gap is the highest in 40 years) and the middle class is being demolished in many ways (e.g. longer work ours, less take home pay, no return on savings, higher costs on essentials, etc.). This is why most people feel we are going in the wrong direction. Ultimately, what will happen is that we will all be experiencing what is already being experienced in Spain and Greece. It is a matter of time. It is not possible to grow an economy by distributing money to the wealthiest class. Redistribution, in this manner, diminishes purchasing power and causes economic contraction. The proof of this is the 1929 crash and what is happening in Europe.
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