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Old 09-20-2015, 10:09 AM
 
Location: california
920 posts, read 937,712 times
Reputation: 1077

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Quote:
Originally Posted by petch751 View Post
A lot of people on welfare game the system just by the fact that they are capable of working but won't. By the fact that they have kids but won't support them (dead beat daddy) or by having more kids you can't support. Recently a girl here on CD said she was on welfare, then saying she was pregnant. Why don't society have an issue with people doing that?
Too many here want to believe if I remain poor, I qualify for IHSS. Some are getting a non medical program mixed up with medical care.
And pushing as long as someone keeps themselves poor, they can do so in order to qualify for IHSS. They get people cooking for them, cleaning, transporting them. Totally untrue.

A catastrophe must break out first which renders me disabled. Then my Long Term Care Insurance paid for, for 20+ years... $500 a month, must not fully kick in. AND...I must become so disabled I cannot fulfil actitivities of daily living for myself. It's very complex, it's not just one to three boom I am poor so hand me someone to cook and prepare meals for me, clean my house, take me to drs appointments


Oh and I happily found out...or just remembered...I am part of a group plan which pays up to $20,00 for accidents per incident. Group accident insurance paid by the company, I guess it is pretty common. Everything helps.


Here's the update post again..for anyone who missed it..https://www.city-data.com/forum/41226951-post83.html
also https://www.city-data.com/forum/40343434-post15.html

Last edited by OutdoorsyGal; 09-20-2015 at 11:15 AM..
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Old 09-20-2015, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Nashville, TN
1,951 posts, read 1,642,657 times
Reputation: 1577
To be honest, I've never really looked at this question from a probability/expense standpoint. We'd need to answer a few questions:

1. What is the probability of needing long-term care?
2. Of those that get long-term care, how many surpass their premiums paid?

I can check my databases at work on Monday to answer question #1. We don't track financials though, so I'm not sure about #2. I might be able to extrapolate that based on average length of stay for SNF/hospice, and then multiple by the average daily cost of LTC. It truly is about probabilities IMO. You could need long-term care for 3 weeks after paying in for 20 years. Or you might need it for 20 years after paying for 3 months. Without knowing either way, it's kind of a crapshoot.

Anyone else have that data handy? If not, I'll check in Monday afternoon.
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Old 09-20-2015, 01:19 PM
 
Location: SW MO
23,593 posts, read 37,600,159 times
Reputation: 29343
Quote:
Originally Posted by OutdoorsyGal View Post
Too many here want to believe if I remain poor, I qualify for IHSS. Some are getting a non medical program mixed up with medical care.
And pushing as long as someone keeps themselves poor, they can do so in order to qualify for IHSS. They get people cooking for them, cleaning, transporting them. Totally untrue.

A catastrophe must break out first which renders me disabled. Then my Long Term Care Insurance paid for, for 20+ years... $500 a month, must not fully kick in. AND...I must become so disabled I cannot fulfil actitivities of daily living for myself. It's very complex, it's not just one to three boom I am poor so hand me someone to cook and prepare meals for me, clean my house, take me to drs appointments


Oh and I happily found out...or just remembered...I am part of a group plan which pays up to $20,00 for accidents per incident. Group accident insurance paid by the company, I guess it is pretty common. Everything helps.


Here's the update post again..for anyone who missed it..https://www.city-data.com/forum/41226951-post83.html
also https://www.city-data.com/forum/40343434-post15.html
I have to feel sorry for you. It's almost as if you're courting disaster which, to my way of thinking, is a most unpleasant way to approach your senior years. I hope it doesn't become a self-fulfilling prophesy for you.
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Old 09-20-2015, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
25,603 posts, read 56,646,904 times
Reputation: 23481
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curmudgeon View Post
I have to feel sorry for you. It's almost as if you're courting disaster which, to my way of thinking, is a most unpleasant way to approach your senior years. I hope it doesn't become a self-fulfilling prophesy for you.
Oh, indeed. I am still hard-pressed to see how anyone at age 46 inheriting even $500k now (forget the house) - with just the most rudimentary of investment intelligence - won't have a nest egg of at least $1.5MM-$2MM in 20 years with returns of only 5-6%.

Dump the $500k here:

VWINX Vanguard Wellesley® Income Inv Fund VWINX Quote Price News

Vanguard's best conservative fund since 1970. Tons of retirees have ALL their money in that. It's set it and forget it.

Of course, there will be a perverse consequence. If you can't find a way to allow this fund to grow tax-deferred (there are ways to minimize this if you care to learn about it), as this fund throws off capital gains, you will be having some serious tax issues over the years.

One of the consequences of having money - you gotta learn how to deploy and manage it. Good problem to have, in my opinion.

Some serious negative thinking going on here - especially at the age of 46 (with the sure prospect of being millionaires in 20 years). I am 73 and give absolutely no thought to my long-term care. None. No one in my family ever needed it - except one aunt who never exercised and ate all the wrong stuff and spent 2.5 years in a nursing home prior to her death at 90. Everyone else just died.

Also, in answer to the Q above - average nursing home stay is about two-three years - borne out by this -

Average Length Of Stay in Years

Female - 2.6 years
Male - 2.3 years
Married - 1.6 years
Single / Never Married - 3.8 years
Widowed - 2.3 years
Divorced / Separated - 2.7 years

Long term care probability or the risk you'll need long term insurance

Most people just give up and die in these facilities, unless they're very young. That's what happened to my aunt. She said she had no life there, so lost the will to live. Of course, she was almost 90 - and lived exactly 2.5 years in that facility (and 1.5 years after her husband died), as shown above. Prior to that she was at home, with my uncle and neighbors as caretakers and every other day visits from home health care people paid for by her husband's retiree health insurance and Medicare. My uncle, her husband, died after about a week in the hospital - all systems shut down. Not sick before that, either. So, LTC is not a given by any means.

Last edited by Ariadne22; 09-20-2015 at 02:18 PM..
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Old 09-20-2015, 02:05 PM
 
Location: california
920 posts, read 937,712 times
Reputation: 1077
Quote:
Originally Posted by numberfive View Post
To be honest, I've never really looked at this question from a probability/expense standpoint. We'd need to answer a few questions:

1. What is the probability of needing long-term care?
2. Of those that get long-term care, how many surpass their premiums paid?

I can check my databases at work on Monday to answer question #1. We don't track financials though, so I'm not sure about #2. I might be able to extrapolate that based on average length of stay for SNF/hospice, and then multiple by the average daily cost of LTC. It truly is about probabilities IMO. You could need long-term care for 3 weeks after paying in for 20 years. Or you might need it for 20 years after paying for 3 months. Without knowing either way, it's kind of a crapshoot.

Anyone else have that data handy? If not, I'll check in Monday afternoon.
that would be very useful if you can get that info. Thanks for your effort ahead of time
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Old 09-20-2015, 02:11 PM
 
Location: california
920 posts, read 937,712 times
Reputation: 1077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
Oh, indeed. I am still hard-pressed to see how anyone at age 46 inheriting even $500k now (forget the house) - with just the most rudimentary of investment intelligence - won't have a nest egg of at least $1.5MM-$2MM in 20 years with returns of only 5-6%.

Dump the $500k here:

VWINX Vanguard Wellesley® Income Inv Fund VWINX Quote Price News

Vanguard's best conservative fund since 1970. Tons of retirees have ALL their money in that. It's set it and forget it.

Of course, there will be a perverse consequence. If you can't find a way to allow this fund to grow tax-deferred (there are ways to minimize this if you care to learn about it), as this fund throws off capital gains, you will be having some serious tax issues over the years.

One of the consequences of having money - you gotta learn how to deploy and manage it. Good problem to have, in my opinion.

Some serious negative thinking going on here - especially at the age of 46 (with the sure prospect of being millionaires in 20 years). I am 73 and give absolutely no thought to my long-term care. None. No one in my family ever needed it - except one aunt who never exercised and ate all the wrong stuff and spent 2.5 years in a nursing home prior to her death at 90. Everyone else just died.

Also, in answer to the Q above - average nursing home stay is about two-three years - borne out by this -

Average Length Of Stay in Years

Female - 2.6 years
Male - 2.3 years
Married - 1.6 years
Single / Never Married - 3.8 years
Widowed - 2.3 years
Divorced / Separated - 2.7 years

Long term care probability or the risk you'll need long term insurance

Most people just give up and die in these facilities, unless they're very young. That's what happened to my aunt. She said she had no life there, so lost the will to live. Of course, she was almost 90 - and lived exactly 2.5 years in that facility, as shown above:
I admire you for not giving a thought to your long term care, well part of me does...must be nice. You might think differently if you had my specific experience caring for 3 very healthy, fit elderly people in hospice. But numberfives statistics she may gleen from her job will be extremely useful.
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Old 09-20-2015, 03:59 PM
 
Location: california
920 posts, read 937,712 times
Reputation: 1077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curmudgeon View Post
I have to feel sorry for you. It's almost as if you're courting disaster which, to my way of thinking, is a most unpleasant way to approach your senior years. I hope it doesn't become a self-fulfilling prophesy for you.
"courting disaster"? that's pretty dramatic

So because I ensure my son isn't my insurance policy thru- hard work, eating healthy, exercising, purchasing LTC plans, $ave my 500 thousand dollar inheritance... as best I can until I need to spend it..but decide to forego my own SS... I am "courting disaster"?

So if I buy auto insurance, and even pay a little more for coverage, are you going to be fearful it is a self fulfilling prophecy I then get into a car accident?

Honestly, ensuring your future doesn't seem to be "courting disaster" to me but you can feel sorry for me if you wish.

You've went from jumping the gun with derogatory assumptions about me while admitting "you could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time" especially since you hadn't read the thread... t i am defrading the gov't or planning to, to now... feeling sorry for me. So far that is
https://www.city-data.com/forum/41250030-post93.html

oh yeah, almost forgot the "trying to enrich my son by foregoing my inheritance of the house thus allowing it to be given to him by his grandparents (next in line). Instead of accepting the house.. risking that it may be of too much value to qualify for IHSS later in life. And that's to say nothing of the medicaid estate recovery act which may take it all from him, even if I do everything in my power. But it's all you can do, and my child is worth it.

Last edited by OutdoorsyGal; 09-20-2015 at 04:09 PM..
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Old 09-20-2015, 04:43 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,858 posts, read 81,862,596 times
Reputation: 58297
Having been through the tremendous paperwork applying for medicaid assisted living for a family member, I would doubt that this plan will work. I suppose it can differ by state, but I know in our case the state made sure that the person was not entitled to any additional benefits from any source, including SS before approving her. She had no house or much savings, but they verified everything
to make sure. Even life insurance policies had to be changed to name the state as primary beneficiary with anything over what they paid for her care to the heirs. Every year we had to go through the whole process again to make sure she didn't suddenly inherit or otherwise acquire any additional funds.
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Old 09-20-2015, 05:35 PM
 
Location: california
920 posts, read 937,712 times
Reputation: 1077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
Having been through the tremendous paperwork applying for medicaid assisted living for a family member, I would doubt that this plan will work. I suppose it can differ by state, but I know in our case the state made sure that the person was not entitled to any additional benefits from any source, including SS before approving her. She had no house or much savings, but they verified everything
to make sure. Even life insurance policies had to be changed to name the state as primary beneficiary with anything over what they paid for her care to the heirs. Every year we had to go through the whole process again to make sure she didn't suddenly inherit or otherwise acquire any additional funds.
Yes that makes sense. California isn't that way right now, but it certainly could go that direction at any time.

the health insurance Medicaid is generally for ages under 65. IHSS falls under a medicaid technically yes, but most people who utilize it are over 65 (for obvious reasons). And that group is on Medicare
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Old 09-20-2015, 06:58 PM
 
Location: Nashville, TN
1,951 posts, read 1,642,657 times
Reputation: 1577
Quote:
Originally Posted by OutdoorsyGal View Post
I admire you for not giving a thought to your long term care, well part of me does...must be nice. You might think differently if you had my specific experience caring for 3 very healthy, fit elderly people in hospice. But numberfives statistics she may gleen from her job will be extremely useful.
I'm a he.

I checked the data in the link above, it looks like it's from 2008. I can't tell the source though, just the vintage for the "2008 LTCi Sourcebook". The data I'll pull is aggregates of ~2 billion claims records from 2011-Q2 2015, so it's about as comprehensive as it gets.

In the meantime, if that $500 monthly premium was instead invested for 20 years, at 7% interest, that'd be about $250k. Just taking a quick look at Google, LTC runs about $6-7k/month right now. Adjust for inflation at 2% for 20 years, and it becomes ~$9700/mo. That means the break-even point is about 26 months of long-term care, assuming all the other medical expenses are covered, inflation stays at that point, and healthcare costs rise in a linear fashion.

In other words...

Zoinks, Scoob!
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