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I guess we are unlikely to hear from Pfau or the other talking heads who thought 4%was going to be too high.
guess again . kitce's interview i posted above has him thinking 4% is still low for a 30 year retirement even at today's valuations .
if it was not for these high valuations draws could be much higher .
his work correlating p/e10 ratio's to 30 year retirement draws had a correlation of a mind blowing .74 . if researchers get a 2 as a correlation in a study it is considered still accurate enough to use but .74 is astonishingly accurate . so where valuations are when you start are directly related to draw rate and these valuations are high but no problem for 4% .
so as he says , every 20 or 30 years we make it a habit of doing something just horrible to the economy and it has been that way since the 1900's . 4% stood up just fine . so basically every retiree group has had bad crap happen .
if you haven't heard the interview there is a lot of info and stats in it . i found it very very good . i posted it in a thread above .
I have been "following" this thread, and I gotta say..... I'm glad I have a financial guy.
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The question though is how knowledable and up to date is he ? Most suck in the 2nd half of the game. Unless you yourself have a decent education it is hard to judge what they know
The question though is how knowledable and up to date is he ? Most suck in the 2nd half of the game. Unless you yourself have a decent education it is hard to judge what they know
So far I really like him. He has answered all my questions correctly, and ask ME the right questions.
I took a two day seminar on retirement, and was told 3 incorrect things.
I learn as much as I can, and I guess I learned enough to move a large 401(k) out of Merrill Lynch because I did not feel they were doing what was in my best interest.
But that's why I still read here and there...
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If you have not listened to the interview with michael l posted ,it is worth a listen . It is a wealth of info and dispels so much in mis-information others spew.
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