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In the argument of whether having chicken pox as a child makes you more or less likely to get shingles as an older adult, the chicken pox wasn't available until after 1994. Therefore people who received the vaccine are now in their mid-twenties. How can we know receiving the vaccine makes you more or less likely to get shingles later in life?? The reverse is also true. If you have shingles now, and you're older than 25, you didn't have the vaccine. BTW, I have always heard having chicken pox made you MORE likely to get shingles, I had never heard/read the opposite until this thread.
I appreciate you mentioning that. I thought the same but was not sure. The problem is it's difficult to ascertain "truth" in these matters as "opinion" runs rampant.
On the chicken pox and shingles, I had chicken pox in the 1940's and never had shingles and no vaccine. So as some have said here: it's all luck -- so I'll go with that, too much stuff to try to prove anything, and some here keep trying to prove.
I've heard of Epicor but no reason to try it. Grape Seed Extract has been saving me so far. And magnesium and Vit D3/K2. I've had no flu since 1957 at age 18...maybe a slight one somewhere in the middle of the years, but not significant...so for me I believe it's grape seed ex.
We all pick and choose and hope to find what works for us.
BTW: My computer is semi fixed but power button is still an issue. I may be buying a new desktop in the not far away future.
Pick and choose is the right attitude. If you don't try it you will never know if it would help. Which is why I've tried so many things over the years.
Stupid computers. And it sucks when a manufacturer decides to drop support.
So I will see you again when buying time arrives? Or do you already know what you're going to get?
Conversely a bad cold, not the flu, leading to pneumonia could be the culprit just as easily.
That is true, but it is possible to test for the flu, which would be done for most seriously ill people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek
Assuming the numbers (for anything) are always correct is a fools errand.
There are numbers and then there are numbers. Some are easier to determine than others. Those concerning diseases like chickenpox and shingles are pretty easy to generate because the diagnosis is usually easy to make. The diagnosis shows up on insurance claims and mining that data gives incidence rates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek
I think the Conspiracy Theories forum will welcome you with open arms.
I think fluffy was being facetious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coschristi
How can I be wrong about something I can't ... and didn't ... assert?
I didn't say vaccines have not contributed to the eradication of these diseases; to say so would be ludicrous & it would fly in the face of the scientific data we have available.
My point is that we have never controlled for other variables that could contribute to altered epidemiology. At least; not to my knowledge & not that I've been able to find. My comment was not a rhetorical question as much as it was literal.
Vaccines have definitely saved lives. But to say that vaccines can take the credit, unshared; for "saving tens of millions of lives"? Is wrong.
I mean; if they can ... they can. Do we know that yet? Would it even be possible to hypothesize what the epidemiology today may look like; had we developed every available medical advancement ... except ... vaccines?
For example; you mention Pertussis.
Pertussis is highly contagious & is transmitted via airborne droplets or by direct contact with infected throat or nasal discharges.
The vaccine to prevent Pertussis was in widespread use by the late 1940s as combined in the DTP, as a whole-cell vaccine administered in a series of 4 doses. Pre-vaccine cases in the U.S. were around 200,000/year but reached a low of 1,010 cases in 1976. In the 1980s, the number of cases of pertussis started to increase & it has been suggested that this was due to concerns about adverse events that led to lower immunization uptake. In 1991 it was reformulated as an acellular preparation in an effort to address those concerns.
But we cannot state, as a fact, that it was lower vaccine uptake that contributed to this increase in rates, because there is insufficient data regarding unvaccinated vs under-vaccinated vs fully vaccinated & actual verified Pertussis diagnosis vs ruled-out for Pertussis cases.
Simple developments such as anti-bacterial soaps, hand sanitizers, isolation & barriers such as masks had evolved inbetween the 1940's-1970's & Universal Precautions was introduced as a concept by the CDC in 1987.
And that's just the epidemiology regarding incidence.
The epidemiology regarding mortality has been even more dramatically affected by advances in treatment options, such as the antibiotics azithromycin, clarithromycin, and erythromycin. Supplemental oxygen. Albuterol. IV fluids.
In the absence of diagnostic & immunization coverage data ... combined with the knowledge of prevention & treatment measures: Do we know what contribution vaccines alone have made to the changing epidemiology of Pertussis?
Because I sure don't. I believe vaccines were a "major player" but to assert that they saved "tens of millions of lives" is spreading misinformation. I have not.
Despite anti-bacterial soaps, hand sanitizers, and isolation the incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases does not go down until vaccines are introduced and uptake is high enough to produce herd immunity.
How do you propose to account for the decrease in the incidence of chickenpox after the vaccine was introduced in 1995? What advances in sanitation and antibiotics do you think account for that?
Why was smallpox wiped off the face of the earth, even in countries where sanitation is abysmal and there is no reliable access to medical care at all, much less the medicines and high tech care available in the first world? Smallpox did not just go poof! and disappear due to handwashing. The vaccine did it.
The epidemiology of the change in the incidence of pertussis is closely tied to the vaccine. You seem to think that epidemiologists are ignorant and do not look for other possibilities. That is not true.
The fact remains that decreasing incidence decreases mortality. You do not die from something you never have. Therefore, yes, vaccines have saved millions of lives.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrs.cool
In the argument of whether having chicken pox as a child makes you more or less likely to get shingles as an older adult, the chicken pox wasn't available until after 1994. Therefore people who received the vaccine are now in their mid-twenties. How can we know receiving the vaccine makes you more or less likely to get shingles later in life?? The reverse is also true. If you have shingles now, and you're older than 25, you didn't have the vaccine.
BTW, I have always heard having chicken pox made you MORE likely to get shingles, I had never heard/read the opposite until this thread.
You do not get shingles if you have never had chickenpox. There is a poster here who has the theory that having chickenpox at an early age reduces the risk of shingles and that all children should be allowed to get chickenpox, the earlier the age the better. However, her underlying assumption is false. Having chickenpox at an earlier age increases the risk of having shingles.
Studies of groups of people who have been vaccinated show that the risk of getting shingles is lower after being vaccinated than after having chickenpox disease, and half the cases in vaccinated children are due to the wild virus, not the vaccine virus. That means either the person already had been infected with the wild virus before the vaccine was given or the vaccine did not prevent the infection.
"HZ [shingles] incidence in vaccinated children was 79% lower than in unvaccinated children. Among vaccinated children, half of HZ cases were due to wild-type VZV [varicella zoster virus]."
Last edited by suzy_q2010; 01-09-2018 at 03:35 PM..
Pick and choose is the right attitude. If you don't try it you will never know if it would help. Which is why I've tried so many things over the years.
Stupid computers. And it sucks when a manufacturer decides to drop support.
So I will see you again when buying time arrives? Or do you already know what you're going to get?
Oh in 1995 at a lecture in Orange Cty CA, a company was bringing Pycnogenol into our country from France. When the doctors/researchers on the panel said it "may prevent cancers"...I was sold and the first thing to go to my surprise was allergies/sinus issues I had all my life before that lecture.
On the computer, I hope to get another Lenovo and hope I can get a Windows 7 when it's time.
Pick and choose is the right attitude. If you don't try it you will never know if it would help. Which is why I've tried so many things over the years.
Stupid computers. And it sucks when a manufacturer decides to drop support.
So I will see you again when buying time arrives? Or do you already know what you're going to get?
If you try it and it seems to help, how do you know it really did?
The only way to know is to give it to a bunch of folks and see if it works better than doing nothing. You have to fix it so that no one knows who is and who is not getting it, too.
If you try it and it seems to help, how do you know it really did?
The only way to know is to give it to a bunch of folks and see if it works better than doing nothing. You have to fix it so that no one knows who is and who is not getting it, too.
I will try it again. If it helps again (assuming the reason is a temporary one) then I can reasonably assume it really helps. For an ongoing problem I am much more strict with my expectations. Epicor is a good example. Been taking it for years and I swear it helps.
I know it's a crap shoot, but it doesn't hurt to try alternatives. The hard part is deciding that if one alternative helps they all will. Caution advised.
I'm a pro vaccine person. Having gone through polio before the vaccine was available (1952) and seeing the results after the vaccine was introduced leans me in that direction. One the other hand I'm also not blindly trusting all vaccines until proven. And even though I pick on anti-vacciners (and for those who miss my odd sense of humor slow it down. I pick on anyone. If it's found offensive it is rarely meant that way) I do agree in part with their concerns. I will pick on pro-vacciners if they say silly things.
Keep a sense of humor. I know it's a serious subject, but getting all wound up over it is stressful. Just take my silliness in stride. I can't help myself.
I had to go out and about today, I was basically talking to three other people, I have known them for years and I mentioned that I came down with shingles before Christmas and how miserable I was etc. etc. Anyway one by one all three eventually told me they had shingles previously. One had it on her back, one on his head and down very close to his eye and one said she had it as an eleven year old girl and she showed me the scars one the side of her throat. I called another place today to see if they had the Shingrix, they didn't have it yet, but, she said she would call as soon as they got it.
A lot of fear mongering on these groups, Keep Your Immune System STRONG and I too only know one person in my life who had shingles...she deals with other health issues too that weaken her immune system. I have told her about grape seed ex but she can't take it due to colitis she deals with.
Most of this group is pro-traditional medicine, apparently.
It's hard for me to comprehend that many people don't do more research and just jump on the advertising propaganda.
These drugs are really toxic. No joke at all. Check the side-effects!
There are metaphysical reasons for any disease. You can look up those reasons online.
Shingles, I believe, is caused by stress and there are probably some unprocessed and repressed anger/rage issues.
You can keep yourself pretty healthy by processing emotional issues, tapping (EFT) on old traumas, keeping your immune system strong, eating healthy, etc. Not a guarantee, but a good basis for health.
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