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Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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OP, I concentrated on Income Sources and their sensitivity to the Equity, Bond, RE markets, to provide Retirement Income. The FA presentation would look like our retirement portfolio.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ysr_racer
So basically, if I'm 61, 39% of my portfolio should be in stocks and mutual funds.
For us, 69/72, our stock/bond/MF value is about 10% of total portfolio on liquidation RE and Annuities. Our annuities are with the GLWB option.
Last edited by leastprime; 06-27-2019 at 09:48 PM..
When I was studying statistics over 50 years ago, one thing the professor drummed into our heads was that statistical information about a group tells you nothing about any group member.
I'm 72. I would be a fool to only plan to age 83. Grandfather died at 98. Mom died at 95. My father died from lung cancer at 81, after 65 years of Camel Straights. I don't smoke. My current health is excellent. I need no medication. I take the dogs for long hikes in the hills every evening, do a little blacksmithing and woodcrafting during the day, and take classes at the local CC to keep my mind active. My current planning horizon is 25 years.
Everyone needs to realistically evaluate their own life expectancy and then plan for their longest projected life span. If you are not going to make it to 80, you should know that by the time you are 65. If you are likely to see 100, your financial strategy will be entirely different.
Rules of thumb are rarely accurate, but often quite useful. If the OP ends up with a ~60/40 allocation merely based on his age, that's not particularly bad, and it isn't clear that doing considerably more homework, and devoting considerably more time to mulling over the problem, would result in a demonstrably better outcome. In other words, yes, there's ample reason for more research and thought. But of one cares to engage in other things than research or thought, and instead wishes to follow the advice of this particular seminar, then the harm is not outrageous.
Yeah, it's a tad bit overstated. Of those who are 60 today, approximately 1 in 5 men and 1 in 3 women will live until age 90. But I accept the general point, that we need to plan for what could potentially be a "long haul."
the odds are very different for a couple where you have two horses in the race with one bet and either can outlive the other .
the odds of one in a couple seeing 85 are 73% . it is very different then for a single ....
also that statistic of 83 does not mean you roll over and die .. it means that is the 1/2 way point where 1/2 are alive and 1/2 are dead so there are loads still alive at 83 going on .
Rules of thumb are rarely accurate, but often quite useful. If the OP ends up with a ~60/40 allocation merely based on his age, that's not particularly bad, and it isn't clear that doing considerably more homework, and devoting considerably more time to mulling over the problem, would result in a demonstrably better outcome. In other words, yes, there's ample reason for more research and thought. But of one cares to engage in other things than research or thought, and instead wishes to follow the advice of this particular seminar, then the harm is not outrageous.
but he would be reducing equities yearly based on that ..that is not what a safe withdrawal rate does nor should be doing .. it will be prone to greater failure. it defeats decades of retirement research and studies .
When I was studying statistics over 50 years ago, one thing the professor drummed into our heads was that statistical information about a group tells you nothing about any group member.
I'm 72. I would be a fool to only plan to age 83. Grandfather died at 98. Mom died at 95. My father died from lung cancer at 81, after 65 years of Camel Straights. I don't smoke. My current health is excellent. I need no medication. I take the dogs for long hikes in the hills every evening, do a little blacksmithing and woodcrafting during the day, and take classes at the local CC to keep my mind active. My current planning horizon is 25 years.
Everyone needs to realistically evaluate their own life expectancy and then plan for their longest projected life span. If you are not going to make it to 80, you should know that by the time you are 65. If you are likely to see 100, your financial strategy will be entirely different.
there is no magic number because life expectancy is always based on a particular cohort at a certain point in time .
For instance, a child born in 2014 has a life expectancy (average age at death) of 79. However, the median age of death for the same child is 83, and the modal (most common) age at death is 89! it’s simply a mathematical fact that the mean is going to be lower than the median or the mode.
Maybe a tad overstated...but as a woman, one chance out of three to hit 90 years of age is something to actively guard against by investing aggressively enough. If you had a 33% chance of getting cancer - would you do what you could to prevent it?
a big factor for women is while 80% of all married men die married , 80% of all married women die alone .
I'd hate to be 80 years old and run out of money. The reality is, if you're 60 years old, you're probably going to live until you're 90. Thats a 30 year investment window, which means at age 60, you're investing for the long run and unless you have a lot of money, you can't afford to be too conservative.
even if you don't live to 90 the planning to 90 is a good idea .. big expenses and unexpected spending can drive you in years well over budget .. not every year neatly fits in what your goal posts are .
2 years ago we ended up buying a new car and we had 15k in dental .. that took us way out of budget for the year . so planning longer provides that extra cushion .
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