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The so-called 4% rule applies to a 30-year retirement period so of course making the retirement period shorter is going to increase the amount you can spend.
The above study uses only 34 historical sequences starting in 1961. Most studies use 60 or 70 historical sequences which gives much better statistics.
The so-called 4% rule applies to a 30-year retirement period so of course making the retirement period shorter is going to increase the amount you can spend.
The above study uses only 34 historical sequences starting in 1961. Most studies use 60 or 70 historical sequences which gives much better statistics.
The benchmarks for the safe withdrawal rate is 1907 1929 1937 1965 1966
because the 4% safe withdrawal rate is already based on the worst of the worst times to date anything better is a plus .
it is based on a a 30 year retirement making it through 1907,1929,1937,1965,1966 .
if we rule out the 5% failure rate then the draw rate could be 6-1/2% ...
but because we don't know in advance if we are going to be the poster child for a worst case outcome we need to take raises in steps along the way .. you don' t want plan on more day 1 .
once we have a good bull you can start increasing . there are a few different methods for taking raises
Here are the results for firecalc for 25 years.. this is at 4% inflation adjusted .
FIRECalc looked at the 124 possible 25 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 124 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-376 to $4,041,650, with an average at the end of $1,388,359. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 25 years. FIRECalc found that 1 cycles failed, for a success rate of 99.2%.
Last edited by mathjak107; 09-05-2019 at 02:19 PM..
Withdrawl rate increases as we move further south. Withdrawal rate, one might surmise, moves inversely.
I see what you did there
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